Jake Osgathorpe's Euro 2024 tips and predictions for the Quarter-Finals
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
2pts Dan Ndoye to commit 2+ fouls in England vs Switzerland (17:00) at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
3pts Virgil van Dijk 1+ total shot in Netherlands vs Turkey (20:00) at 8/11 (Sky Bet)
- *All bets are in 90 minutes
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England vs Switzerland
- Saturday 6th July, 17:00 - BBC One
- Home 23/20 | Draw 2/1 | Away 13/5
England look overpriced to win here if we look at previous odds.
Germany, who were a bigger price than England to win the Euros pre-tournament, were 1/2 to beat Switzerland when they played them, so the fact the Three Lions are 5/4 looks too big of a gap - even when we factor in that Gareth Southgate's men have got nowhere near those pre-tournament expectations.
I'd expect evens at the most.
While I would consider it value, I don't think that is the best bet in this game, with a fouls angle appealing at the same price.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Yes, I have used this line in a previous column but it absolutely applies again here, especially as DAN NDOYE is priced at 5/4 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS.
We are getting the same price that this bet won at in Switzerland's victory over Italy, which seems wrong, not only because its a bet that's now landed in all four outings at Euro 2024, but because of the opponents in this contest, England.
The Three Lions are the most fouled team at the tournament, winning 60 fouls in total, a huge seven more than anyone else. The Swiss meanwhile rank sixth for fouls committed, with Ndoye joint-fourth among players for fouls at the tournament.
This looks like a perfect match.
Score prediction: England 0-0 Switzerland (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1520 (03/07/24)
Netherlands vs Turkey
- Saturday 6th July, 20:00 - ITV1
- Home 4/7 | Draw 3/1 | Away 17/4
Thanks for showing up three years too late, Turkey.
Everyone's dark horse in Euro 2020, who spectacularly flopped, have decided to fulfil that role in 2024. They have impressed at times, but remain defensively vulnerable.
The Netherlands put in their best display of the tournament against Romania and are strong favourites to progress.
Scanning the various markets, I just can't get away from backing VIRGIL VAN DIJK 1+ TOTAL SHOT at 8/11.
The price is on the short side but it is laced in value. Van Dijk has had a shot in all four Euros games to date, coming close to scoring more than once, and is an absolute ball magnet from dead-ball situations.
The Dutch haven't been overly successful from set-pieces at the tournament, 0.89 xG in total from 11 set-piece shots, but Van Dijk is a constant threat from any dead ball situations. He averaged 1.3 shots per 90 in the Premier League too.
Add in the fact that Turkey have looked very vulnerable from set-pieces in their last two outings against physical and aerially dominant sides, and the bet starts to appear even more appealing.
They conceded a combined 11 shots in matches against Czechia and Austria, with those chances equating to 1.99 xG.
Van Dijk is 8/1 to score anytime and 20/1 to score first here - both Sky Bet prices - but the 8/11 to take just a single shot is the safer avenue, hopefully.
Also, another potential angle could be Van Dijk fouls committed. He's committed 2-1-3-4 fouls in his four Euros games, and six of Turkey's nine opposing centre-backs at the tournament have committed a foul, so combining a VVD shot and foul nearly made the staking plan at 13/8 (Sky Bet). He's 9/4 for 2+ fouls (Betfair) too.
Score prediction: Netherlands 2-0 Turkey (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1520 (03/07/24)
Already advised
2.5pts Spain and Germany (17:00) to both commit 11+ fouls at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Spain and Germany (17:00) to both commit 13+ fouls at 5/1 (Betfair)
0.5pt Spain and Germany (17:00) to both commit 15+ fouls at 21/1 (Betfair)
1pt Jules Kounde to be carded in Portugal vs France (20:00) at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Well, it's fair to say the Euros bracket has delivered - on one side of the draw anyway.
Spain vs Germany and Portugal vs France are mouthwatering clashes on Friday, and if Jude Bellingham hadn't rescued England, I don't think I'm going out on a limb here saying viewing figures on Saturday would be through the floor.
Fortunately, the Three Lions did advance and it means we have plenty of interest across both days of quarter-finals action. We did make a loss in the Round of 16, but overall are still running at +9pts profit for Euro 2024.
With just seven games of the tournament remaining, we aren't resting on our laurels. Let's see if we can increase the pot rather than cement profit for the tournament by staking just 1pt on all remaining matches - who the hell would want to see that?
Spain vs Germany
- Friday 5th July, 17:00 - ITV1
- Home 8/5 | Draw 11/5 | Away 17/10
I don't think I'm overstating it when I say that Spain and Germany have been the best teams at Euro 2024 so far. It is a real shame they play each other at such an early stage.
Still, we should be set to witness a cracking game of football on Friday.
Here we have two sides who press furiously and play gung-ho attacking football, transitioning at break-neck speed when allowed. The pressing side of things can be highlighted by PPDA (Passes per Defensive Action), where these sides rank in the top four at Euro 2024.
So, how do we profit from this? Well, we know for a fact these two won't change their approaches, so we should absolutely target FOULS, FOULS and more FOULS.
I think there is great value in backing both SPAIN AND GERMANY TO COMMIT 11+ FOULS in a bet builder at 6/4.
Luis de la Fuente's side have made 14, 17, 15 and 11 fouls at Euro 2024 - an average of 14.3 per game - with that final figure coming in their win over Georgia in which they had 75% possession.
In their two most competitive games so far (Croatia and Italy) where the possession stats were very even, Spain were fouled 13 and 14 times. The lopsided games saw them fouled only 5 and 6 times, understandable given the fact they were camped in the final third with little space for players to stretch their legs - they will get that here.
Germany have made 15, 12, 12 and 7 fouls at Euro 2024 (average of 11.5), and have drawn 15, 14, 10 and 9 fouls from their opponents (average of 12). So we only need these sides to hit their averages for a winner.
We'll also have a swing at both SPAIN AND GERMANY TO COMMIT 13+ FOULS at 5/1. This bet landed in both of Spain's games against highly-ranked opponents, and while Germany haven't yet faced someone near the level of Spain, when they played their toughest game to date (Switzerland) this bet missed by just one foul.
And, given that we are nearing the end of the tournament, why not take a big swing at both SPAIN AND GERMANY TO COMMIT 15+ FOULS at 21/1. Spain are the key to this bet landing, as their recent games against top sides have been incredibly foul-laden.
Games against Italy (17-14), Croatia (14-13), Colombia (15-17) and Brazil (20-16) have been mental for fouls, so with a good dance partner here, plus the stakes being incredibly high, it perhaps could be worthwhile taking the higher lines.
Score prediction: Spain 1-1 Germany (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1730 (02/07/24)
Portugal vs France
- Friday 5th July, 20:00 - BBC One
- Home 9/4 | Draw 2/1 | Away 13/10
Before the tournament, this match-up would have had everyone excited. After watching both sides play four times, I don't think everyone is buzzing for this.
Hopefully it surprises, but the fact that 'no goalscorer' is the third-favourite in the first goalscorer market tells you everything.
When assessing the player card prices, I couldn't believe JULES KOUNDE was 13/2 TO BE CARDED in this game, the second least likely Frenchman to end up in the referee's book.
Now, Kounde's card record certainly explains the price on the face of it - 36 cards in 332 appearances for club and country - but his match-up in this game could be another huge test.
I say another, because Kounde faced the direct Jeremy Doku in the last round, and the Frenchman committed two fouls but avoided a card. This match he'll be up against Rafael Leao, who has looked electric for Portugal down the left, supported by Nuno Mendes.
Leao has been fouled 2.45 times per 90 at Euro 2024, and the opposition right-back has been carded in both of Portugal's last two matches. It's worth chancing Kounde to have his name taken given the strength, pace and directness of Portugal's left side.
Score prediction: Portugal 0-0 France (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1520 (03/07/24)
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