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Jake Osgathorpe's EFL 24/25 outright tips, predictions, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: EFL outright
1pt Stoke to be relegated from the Championship at 12/1 (BetVictor)
4pts Luton to finish in the Championship top half at 11/8 (General)
2pts Peterborough to finish in the League One top six at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Accrington to finish in the League Two top half at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
We are just about a third of the way through the EFL season, and the actual table has started to take shape.
It also means the expected table is forming, with a 14 or 15-game sample large enough to make assessments of teams and see where there could be value in the outright markets.
Championship
The biggest underperformer of the Championship season so far, according to xG, has been Coventry, making it even more of a bizarre decision to see them part ways with Mark Robins.
Despite sitting 17th in the table, the Sky Blues have accumulated the fourth most expected points (xP) while possessing the fifth best underlying process (xGD).
Fair to say that if Robins was still in charge heading into this international break I would be tempted to make a pro-Coventry bet. As it is though, even if a new manager has a solid foundation to work from, a managerial change is too big of a variable - especially if the new man is Frank Lampard.
Pre-season fancies of many, LUTON, are also in the underperformer bracket, with the data suggesting they have been unfortunate not to have collected more points.
The Hatters sit fourth bottom in the standings but occupy a top-half berth based on xP and xGD. Reports suggest that manager Rob Edwards is facing heavy pressure, though the data suggests the hierarchy should trust in the process and ride the regression wave.
They are now 10 points off the top six and 10/1 to finish there. The 11/8 available for them to just FINISH IN THE TOP HALF looks value given the data, the squad and manager in charge; they're only four points off 12th at the moment.
At the other end of the table, it's Plymouth who prop up the division based on xG, Wayne Rooney's men fortunate to be 18th.
Their xGD of -15.7, which works out at -1.04 per game, is some 6.6 worse than any other side in the second tier and suggests that unless something changes process-wise, Argyle will quickly sink into the bottom three.
Unfortunately they are priced accordingly at 4/6. Portsmouth look to be in trouble, second bottom of both the actual and expected table, as do QPR, who's performances mirror results thus far, posting relegation-worthy data.
They are a more backable 11/10 which wouldn't be a surprise given how close they came last season, needing a miraculous finish to survive.
Instead though, we're taking a chance at the bigger odds about STOKE TO BE RELEGATED. The Potters have already made a managerial change this season, and sit in a very flattering 13th.
They should be 20th according to the underlying data, data that has got worse since the sacking of Steven Schumacher and appointment of Narcís Pelach.
In five games under Schumacher the Potters won the xG battle three times, averaging 1.14 xGF and 1.31 xGA per game. Mid-table figures.
In 10 games under Pelach they've lost the xG battle eight times, averaging 1.28 xGF and a whopping 1.85 xGA per game. They are 0.4 xG per game worse.
Should that relegation worthy level of process continue, expect positive results to be rare, making the 12/1 on offer worthy of a small bet.
League One
Down a division and Birmingham are 1/3 to win the title which is completely fair at this point. They lead the league in xGF per game, xGA per game, xGD per game and xP per game. Put simply, they are the best team.
Wycombe aren't far behind them on some of those metrics, and nor are Huddersfield, with it highly likely those two will be in the top six come the end of the season.
Wrexham are the division's biggest overperformers, sitting third despite collecting only the 15th most xP. They've performed like a bottom-half team, so a drop-off is expected, with the same likely for seventh-placed Mansfield (14th in the xG table).
Looking at a TOP SIX bet makes sense and at 9/2 backing PETERBOROUGH appeals, with Posh showing already this season that their ceiling is high.
Darren Ferguson's side are mid-table but only three points off sixth. They rank seventh on xP and have scored the second most goals in the league, racking up the most xGF, so are likely to be in plenty of games.
The reason Posh are such a big price to finish in the top six is their defensive record. They've conceded the joint second most goals in the division, while only five teams have conceded more xGA than them. While a concern, their scoring will always give them a great chance
The other reason I like Peterborough's chances is their schedule.
They've got a great run of fixtures coming up over Christmas and the new year which could see them get on a roll. After Reading they take on Burton, Northampton and Crawley. A tricky trip to Stockport is followed by home games against Mansfield and Barnsley before a trip to Burton.
If Ferguson's men can find some consistency over that period, with their defensive record likely to improve as they take on inferior opponents, there's every chance Posh will be in the play-off mix.
League Two
League Two is still a wide open betting heat at both ends of the table.
At the top, Port Vale are the 3/1 favourites, with Walsall 9/2 and Doncaster 6/1. Notts County and Wimbledon are a best price of 10s to win the title, but if you were to make me select a value bet, it would be pre-season pick MK Dons, available at 14/1 with Unibet.
They are purring under new manager Scott Lindsey and after a shocking start are just six points off the top. Given we're on them already, I won't double down.
The other bet that stands out to me in the fourth tier is ACCRINGTON TO FINISH IN THE TOP HALF, which is available at a generous 6/1.
After a winless opening eight games, Accrington have started picking up points, winning four of their next six.
Those results were coming. They had been very unfortunate, with their data positioning them as a fringe play-off team.
They sit 10th in the xG table, and are one of only 11 teams in League Two to boast a positive xG process, meaning that on a game-to-game basis they create more good scoring opportunities than their opponents.
Defensively they are sound, ranking seventh for xGA per game, which is a positive sign.
Just five points off the top half currently and with a nice looking upcoming schedule where they'll face Swindon, Bromley, Salford, Tranmere and Carlisle before the New Year, the 6/1 looks overpriced.
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