Ivan Toney: Arsenal, Chelsea or stay at Brentford?

• Published before Ivan Toney scored in Brentford's 3-2 win over Nottingham Forest

Ivan Toney is back in a Brentford shirt, almost eight months on from being banned for 232 breaches of the Football Association’s gambling rules.

He scored a hat-trick for their B team in a 5-1 win over Southampton under-23s in his first appearance back and could now face Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on Saturday.

Having initially said he is focused on helping his team-mates to end a run of five straight defeats, and repaying Thomas Frank, the England striker changed tact in a second interview with Sky Sports this week.

"You can never predict when is the right time to move elsewhere, but I think it's obvious I want to play for a top club," he said.

"Everybody wants to play for a top club, that is fighting for titles. Whether it's this January that is the right time for a club to come in and pay the right money, who knows?"

A big shift in tone from the previously admirable attitude of "repaying Brentford and Thomas Frank for all their help."

While Brentford have said they would only consider an astronomical offer for him, this could be the final window they are able to cash in given that Toney has only 18 months left on his contract.

The 27-year-old finished last season with 20 league goals, helped Brentford finish ninth and was capped by England.

A striker of his calibre with proven scoring quality will always be sought after. But do the teams who are being linked with him even need him? And from Toney's perspective, what would be the right move for him?

Should Arsenal sign Toney?

Mikel Arteta's side fell short of the title by five points last season as Manchester City went on a brilliant unbeaten run when it counted most, whereas results faltered for the Gunners.

Though they finished last season with 88 goals, Arsenal's non-penalty expected goals for average of 1.82 per game was only third best, marginally better than Brighton (1.81).

Arteta has chosen to bridge the gap by being far more pragmatic this season and making them harder to beat. However, one area of apparent weakness last season which has carried on this year is the issues in aerial duels.

The Gunners ranked in the bottom five for aerial duels won percentage last year, winning just 46.5%. Arteta has addressed that by adding height and physicality to the side with the likes of Declan Rice, and could add more by adding Toney to the mix.

The Brentford man has an admiration for Arteta's style of play and has declared his ambitions to play for a 'big team' like Arsenal with the aim of winning silverware.

It wasn't the case last season, but Toney is definitely a better fit for this version of Arsenal, who are difficult to play against and want to overwhelm opposition sides in and out of possession.

One telling factor of change in Arsenal is when we look at crosses attempted - last season the Gunners finished mid-table for that metric with 674.

A 180 degree shift this season means they are currently third for crosses attempted with 397 so far, a recognisable number nine would go a long way in converting those crosses into dangerous chances.

Previously, the big counter-argument would have been not wanting to try to fix something that isn't broken. But for the first time this season Arsenal have hit a serious blip, even with Arteta's preferred front six of Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Declan Rice and Kai Havertz the Gunners have failed to fire in front of goal.

One win in seven matches in all competitions and only five goals scored.

Adding Toney might give the boost required to bring everything together and give Arsenal a chance to topple City from their throne, though it would still have to be considered as something of a risk given they simply aren't used to playing with a striker of his profile.

And whether they can afford him is another matter too, especially given the Gunners were forced to sign David Raya on loan from Brentford last summer with the deal being made permanent 12 months later because of Financial Fair Play restrictions.

Should Chelsea sign Toney?

Chelsea are seemingly in the market for a number nine this month, with Napoli's Victor Osimhen reportedly a target as well as Toney.

Nicolas Jackson was brought in from Villarreal this summer and though his performances have been largely fine, the Blues need a clinical presence up front to convert chances.

So far this season, they've been the second biggest underperformers on expected goals overall, which suggests they should have scored about seven more than they have so far.

Jackson has missed 12 big chances this season, a total of seven scored from 19 league games isn't hugely encouraging from the Senegal forward.

Additionally, nearly half that tally came in a hat-trick against a nine-man Spurs side in a 4-1 victory. Consistency in front of goals is an issue with him. The 22-year-old's underlying numbers are highly encouraging but he lacks the finishing ability needed at the top level.

Toney could be the perfect senior option to give someone like Jackson a bit more breathing room and lighten the burden of goalscoring on his shoulders.

The recent return of Christopher Nkunku makes for an exciting prospective partnership too. On top of that, Chelsea have a number of exciting creative pieces in forward areas who could benefit from the England international.

Toney's prowess in hold-up play, being an outlet in the final third and his underrated ability with the ball ticks several boxes that make him a great fit for Chelsea, and the Blues are a great fit for him.

More from Sporting Life

• Fixtures, results and live scores
• Expert xG analysis and features
• Transfer news and done deals
• Football and other sports tips
• Download our free iOS & Android app
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.