England get their Euro 2024 qualifying campaign underway on the road, taking on Italy - the team who beat them in the Euro 2020 final. Jake Osgathorpe has the best bets.
Football betting tips: Euro 2024 qualifying
1.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 9/10 (Betfair, BetVictor)
1pt Francesco Acerbi to be carded at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
England and Italy know each other well by now. Roberto Mancini has had Gareth Southgate's number thus far, going unbeaten in three meetings, keeping two clean sheets and winning the Euro 2020 final.
Both had major issues in 2022, with Italy failing to qualify for the World Cup and England getting relegated from the Nations League, but a fair bit has changed since, and the Three Lions look to be in a better position than their opponents ahead of Euro qualifying.
In this opener, backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' makes plenty of appeal at a shade of odds-on given the lack of attacking talent on the Italian's side - and the fact the hosts could play in a vintage, defence-first manner here.
This bet landed in both Nations League meetings as the pair effectively cancelled each other out, but with Gli Azzurri missing Ciro Immobile and Federico Chiesa, their attacking options don't pack as much punch.
In fact, midfielder Nicolo Barella and centre-back Leonardo Bonucci are the top scorers in the current squad with eight, followed by the first forward on that list, Domenico Berardi (6), and then midfielder Jorginho (5).
For the most part, England looked defensively solid in the World Cup, keeping three clean sheets in five games, and given this is the opening game of qualifying against a decent team, I can see a fairly negative approach from Southgate, while the lack of attacking weapons could force Mancini's hand, leading to a low-scoring game.
With Under 2.5 Goals incredibly short at a best price of 13/20, taking BTTS 'No' is the suggested play.
My next favourite bet comes from the card markets, where Italy centre-back FRANCESCO ACERBI looks a huge price to make it into the referee's book.
Mancini switched to a back five system after a disappointing first four games in the recent Nations League campaign, and the change worked, with two wins with accompanying clean sheets - one against England - seeing them top the pool. He also deployed the tactic in their two most recent friendlies too.
Acerbi featured as one of the two outside centre-backs in that system, on the right against England and the left against Hungary, the latter in which he was booked.
Why is that important? Well, in playing a back five, the right and left centre-backs are exposed when the wing-backs bomb on and there is a turnover, meaning they are left isolated in a 1v1.
Should Mancini stick to that system, Acerbi could be in for a tough evening should he start, with England likely to select Bukayo Saka and Jack Grealish - two of the most direct and best dribblers in the sport.
There is even a risk that he gets caught when one of the two drive inside on their strong foot and run directly at him, so despite this being an international game, I can't leave him unbacked at 13/2 - he's as short as 9/4 in places.
The ref, Serbian Srdjan Jovanovic, is hit and miss, as in his misses are no cards and his hits are between five and eight. There is volatility. He oversaw two Nations League games last year and flashed totals of 0 and 8.
The good news, the '8' came in a game that involved Italy as they drew with Germany, so there could have been worst appointments.
Italy v England best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 9/10 (Betfair, BetVictor)
- 1pt Francesco Acerbi to be carded at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Italy 0-1 England (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1520 GMT (21/03/23)
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