Italy v Belgium tips: UEFA Nations League preview and best bets

Football betting tips: Nations League

1pt Italy to win in 90 minutes at 13/10 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Italy’s defeat to Spain in the semi-final of this competition ended their 37-game unbeaten run, but it was also the first time the Azzurri have lost on home soil since they were beaten by Denmark in September 1999.

Albeit in a lesser tournament, Spain will have relinquished some of the demons from their penalty shoot-out defeat to Italy at the same stage of the European Championship this summer, while for the Italians, the wounds will probably heal rather quickly given their success in July.

Here, in Turin, Italy take on a Belgium team who have again failed to reach the final of an international tournament, taking part in their second third-place play-off after losing to France in the semi-finals of the Nations League; just as they did in the semi-finals of the World Cup in 2018.

The pressure to win a trophy is mounting on Roberto Martinez – else face a Sven-Göran Eriksson-like reputation in Belgium for the rest of his life – and unfortunately for the Spaniard, brandishing two bronze medals will unlikely be enough to satisfy fans, or players for that matter.

Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday

TV channel: Sky Sports Football

Italy 13/10 | Draw 23/10 | Belgium 21/10

The big question with this game really is how seriously both teams are going to take it. A third-place play-off is seldom a raucous affair as it is, never mind when it is in a tournament lacking in prestige.

The third-place play-off in the inaugural Nations League finished 0-0, England beating Switzerland on penalties, and it is difficult to see this game being played with a huge amount of intensity.

Given there were eight goals across the two semi-finals however, it may be best to avoid backing a low-scoring affair, with a lack of intensity not always leading to stalemates, lackadaisical defending often contributing to high-scoring matches, particularly with Belgium’s back line.

Belgium’s defence in fact is worth concentrating on here, as once again, it was their inability to keep out the opposition that cost them a place in the Nations League final.

Karim Benzema’s goal in the semi-final was far from the best piece of defending, all three centre-halves around the Real Madrid forward, but still allowing him to turn inside the box and find the bottom corner, and Theo Hernandez’ winner was a lesson in how not to defend from the entire Belgium defence, Jason Denayer pulled miles out of position trying to cover Yannick Carrasco, before a Sunday league-level miskick in the box from Toby Alderweireld laid the ball perfectly into the path of the oncoming AC Milan wing-back.

This sort of defending is almost an insult to an Italian team who take more pride in a block resulting in a corner than most do in a 40-yard screamer.

Leonardo Bonucci will miss the game as a result of his first-half red card against Spain, but Giorgio Chiellini could well be in line to replace him, and in Francesco Acerbi and promising youngster Alessandro Bastoni, they have more than adequate understudies to marshal Gigi Donnarumma’s goal.

Undoubtedly Belgium are dangerous in attack, but just as we saw when these two met in the quarter-final of the Euros, Italy have the capability to dictate the game and keep the Belgians quiet.

It is difficult to see Roberto Mancini rotating his side too heavily, perhaps Manuel Locatelli will come in to play in midfield, but the front three thrive on fluidity and rhythm, and the former Manchester City boss will be keen to keep that going.

The defeat to Spain was a set-back for Italy, but far from a major one, and expect the Azzurri to bounce back with a vengeance.

• CLICK HERE to back Italy to win with Sky Bet

A price of 13/10 with Sky Bet about ITALY TO WIN makes plenty of appeal and looks the way to go in this Nations League third-place play-off.

Italy v Belgium best bets and score prediction

• 1pt Italy to win in 90 minutes at 13/10 (Sky Bet)

Score prediction: Italy 1-0 Belgium (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Odds correct at 1200 BST (08/10/21)

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