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Is Manchester United's defence actually improving under Erik ten Hag?
Nothing Manchester United do on a football pitch follows even the basic logic of Premier League football and nothing that has happened to them over the last half-decade makes sense.
That analysis, five weary weeks into another confusing season for Erik ten Hag, really isn’t much of an exaggeration.
From the first days of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer back in 2018 to present day, Man Utd isn’t just an under-performing team and neither can they be categorised simply as lost or in transition.
No, this is existential crisis manifest.
They are devoid of meaning or purpose, and have for as long as anyone can remember. Crisis isn’t really the right word, because to be in crisis suggests there is something tangible broken, a form that is bent out of shape.
But United are a vapour. There is nothing there.
All of which makes it incredibly difficult to ascertain whether progress is being made and whether Ten Hag has begun to build a solid entity of some kind this season.
Nobody should speak with confidence about them, where a permanent quantum flux defies any of the usual measures.
Take the 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace last weekend.
Man Utd played with a high line and a high press, had a midfield that swarmed and circulated efficiently, and peppered the Palace goal with shots. But they did it in vague phases, wafting in and out, and by the second half Palace were gushing through empty patches of grass looking like a team twice as good as their hosts.
Andre Onana with a ridiculous double save to keep the scores level 😳🧤 pic.twitter.com/HDWexFk17i
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) September 21, 2024
What did it mean? Nothing, probably. It never means anything.
And yet statisticians have begun chattering, and in those glimpses of something (sort of) closer to normal, we can, maybe, start to piece together a kind of approximation of a Ten Hag vision-ish...thing.
United have kept three clean sheets in five Premier League games, a third of their total in the whole of last season. They have gone from conceding the second-most shots (660) to the sixth-fewest (49) and from the fifth-highest expected goals against (68.9) to the tenth-highest (6.4).
Compared to the corresponding fixtures from last season (removing the game against Southampton, who were in the Sky Bet Championship), Man Utd have conceded an xG against of 5.3, down from 8.7, and conceded 49 shots, down from 70.
Ah, the soothing effect of numbers: tangible, reliable, real. We can say with statistical certainty that Man Utd are better at defending this season compared to last.
But football isn’t really as simple as that.
Fulham had numerous chances to win the opener they lost at Old Trafford, creating lots of dangerous situations that didn’t end in a statistically-measurable shot.
Southampton completely dominated central midfield and had United on the ropes when Cameron Archer missed a penalty at 0-0, after which momentum flipped.
Stats don’t show game-state.
We’ve already discussed the weirdness and the chaos at Palace, and that just leaves the two games Ten Hag’s side lost, against Brighton and Liverpool. In an alternate timeline, United have zero points from five games.
That, of course, is a little too far the other way. The eye test does suggest the defence has improved this season now that the back four are sitting considerably higher and pouncing forward intelligently.
It is the polar opposite of the fearful backpedalling, and subsequent gap between themselves and midfield, that defined 2023/24.
For that, we can thank an assertive front-footed start from new signings Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui, as well as the availability of Ten Hag’s best players.
Three of his back four have played every Premier League minute so far. Last year injuries forced Ten Hag to play 14 different centre-back partnerships. That difference alone accounts for most of the defensive uptick.
Will it last? Impossible to say.
Manchester United don’t follow any of the rules of logic. Joshua Zirkzee has looked smart up front, but Christian Eriksen sitting alongside Kobbie Mainoo is a disaster waiting to happen.
Marcus Rashford is scoring again, but Bruno Fernandes has slumped. Injuries are clearing up, but Thursday night Europa League football is about to start.
Ten Hag is in a better place than he was at the end of August, but defeat to Tottenham on Sunday will invite another stern-faced public inquiry from the ex-United media circle.
Win and they’ll be in the top-four race, but lose and they’ll have fewer points than at this stage last season.
United refuse all meaning. It’s best not to read too much into their defensive record, then, or anything else that happens at Old Trafford for that matter. Time passes, football happens.
Ten Hag’s job is to create meaning out of nothing. His chances remain slim.
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