Football Critic's Paul Macdonald runs the numbers to work out if Chelsea are getting value for money by paying £50m for Ben Chilwell.
Chelsea’s problems at left-back have been clear for much of the season, as has been the entire defence.
While more ambitious Blues fans are salivating at the prospect of their attacking talent being integrated, with Hakim Ziyech and Timo Werner already secured, while Kai Havertz is thought to be days away from completion, the more cynical among them are wondering how a defence that conceded as many goals as Brighton (54) will improve without any reinforcements.
35-year-old Thiago Silva, now a free agent, would be a welcome addition in the middle, while on the left Chilwell has been long-linked but hasn’t been signed just yet.
The main concern from Chelsea has been the fee; Leicester, while Champions League qualification seemed a certainty, had no desire to sell and so set the fee at £80m, but now that dream is over there has been a downgrade to the region of £50m. Chilwell is still just 23 and will therefore likely have sell-on potential for Chelsea in the future or, at least, retain some of that value. He also fits into Frank Lampard’s young, English player ethos, and though there are high-profile foreign arrivals, there will still be an English core to the group. Chilwell fits that perfectly.
But perhaps the concern for Lampard should be Chilwell’s form rather than the fee. Earlier in the season, after producing a treble-assist in England’s 7-0 domination of Montenegro the rumours began of Chelsea’s interest and it coincided not only with Leicester’s drop-off, but of Chilwell.
It clearly turned the player’s head. His form dipped after that and it begs the question - is Chilwell worth spending £50m on? Is he such a significant upgrade?
In some ways it does look to make sense. Chilwell is one of the most-used players in Leicester’s build-up, with 90.7 touches P90, while his 6.3 recoveries is the best ranking for full-backs outside of the big six, as is his number of passes into final third (19.1 P90). Chilwell is also among the league leaders in any position for distance carrying the ball in 19/20, and one of his best attributes is his ability to provide a regular attacking outlet on the left, widening the pitch.
Also, Marcos Alonso is probably the bemoaned member of the Chelsea squad, certainly among fans; the main bone of contention being that he has the propensity to switch off defensively, and that he was much more suited to playing left-wing back in Antonio Conte’s 3-5-2 rather than as a standalone full-back. The arrival of Emerson from Roma two years really hasn’t worked out - he has started just 20 Premier League matches in that time. Given that Cesar Azpilicueta has featured on that side as a right-sided left-back, it highlights the problem Chelsea have, one that makes Chilwell look like a straightforward solution.
There’s one problem - Chilwell doesn’t seem to stand out in any particular area, certainly not in a way which justifies parting with £50m. He’s not particularly quick, he is far more effective offensively than defensively, and there are also legitimate concerns about his concentration.
But even offensively, if we look at shot creating actions - essentially passes, crosses or dribbles which lead to a team-mate shooting - Chilwell’s 2.35 is less than Alonso (2.96) and only just better than Azpilicueta (2.2). He attempts roughly as many progressive passes as that duo, while his expected assists - increasingly an area where modern full-backs are asked to contribute - is around 3.4; not a particularly standout total. Worth noting that two of his three league assists came in the 9-0 battering of Southampton, who had 10 men for 80 minutes of the contest.
His 104 crosses is only two more than the notoriously defensive Aaron Wan-Bissaka, while the Man Utd man is infinitely superior on tackles and interceptions. He’s not a natural defender in that regard and isn’t particularly comfortable in one-on-one scenarios. So if he’s not a standout attacker, nor as a defender, what exactly is he?
That’s hard to say. With Chelsea already acquiring a number of offensive players, what exactly are they looking for in their full-back? A defence leaking goals, the potential of a 35-year-old becoming an integral part of that unit, while the options on the other flank being between experience (Azpilicueta) and Reece James, who still needs time?
It’s hard to argue that Chelsea’s transfer approach seems more scattergun than measured, and, at the price and given the data, Chilwell doesn’t change that.
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