Ipswich Town host fellow Sky Bet League One big guns Derby County on Friday night. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and flags up the flag-kicks with his best bets.
Football betting tips: League One
1pt Ipswich 8+ corners at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Each team 2+ corners in each half at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Ipswich 10+ corners at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
Have a guess when Ipswich and Derby last met in English football’s third tier? Hint: you’ll be guessing a while – the answer is never.
Last season’s relegation from the Sky Bet Championship means the Rams are playing at League One level for only the fifth campaign in their history, while Ipswich are in their third successive season there.
The Tractor Boys have begun the season excellently under Kieran McKenna, sitting second after nine wins and just two defeats from their opening 14 games – although one of the losses did come at home to Lincoln in their most recent league match.
Derby’s start, meanwhile, has been a bit more mixed but that’s perhaps to be expected after the drama and upheaval of the past couple of years and, just a point off the top six in ninth, new boss Paul Warne will look to mastermind a promotion charge.
You can get 4/1 on Derby to win here which feels a bit overpriced given they have won their opening two away games under Warne, although Cambridge and Accrington are hardly world-beaters.
There’s some value there but the fact remains Ipswich have been mightily impressive and even though they slipped up against Lincoln last time out, that was a freak result, the Tractor Boys bossing the shot tally 17-3 and corner count 14-4.
Fortunately, there’s a better angle at play here, which those figures above lead nicely on to. The two teams involved here have arguably been the two most attacking sides in the division if you go by shots and corners metrics.
Ipswich are averaging 7.5 corners a game, Derby 7.42 – streets out on their own at the top of such statistics, with the next team, Exeter, well back on 6.79.
And those figures are probably so high because each team has a whopping ‘shots per game’ average too, Ipswich topping those standings with 17.7 (19 at home), Derby third on 15.1 (15.5 away).
Equally importantly for the tip I’m about to suggest is both sides’ corner counts are split fairly evenly between first and second half – (Ipswich 3.29 first half, 4.21 second & Derby 3.75 first, 3.67 second).
This all suggests that the 4/1 Sky Bet offer via their Price Boost on 2+ CORNERS EACH TEAM EACH HALF is the standout price in this clash of two third-tier heavyweights.
Given Ipswich are the home team here, with the onus on them to attack but facing a resilient Derby side with the division’s joint second-best defence (only Bolton, on eight, have conceded fewer than the Rams’ 11), I have to back home corners too.
The 5/2 on 8+ IPSWICH CORNERS appeals – it’s a line they’ve reached in eight of their 14 games this season and four of seven at home. Odds-on backers can go safer with 5/6 on 6+ Town corners but I like the jump in price for just two more.
And, at a price of 15/2, I can’t resist a small play on 10+ IPSWICH CORNERS as well – a tally they have achieved four times in those 14 matches.
Ipswich v Derby score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Ipswich 8+ corners at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Each team 2+ corners in each half at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pt Ipswich 10+ corners at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Ipswich 1-1 Derby (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1200 (20/10/22)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose. If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
