International football tips: Germany v England & more

Recommended bets: International friendlies

1pt Dele Alli first goalscorer v Germany at 12/1 – Spurs star has 14 goals in last 20 games and more this season than any other England squad member

2pts Leigh Griffiths anytime goalscorer v Canada at 6/4 – odds-on quotes elsewhere look a better reflection of striker’s chances against weak opposition

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International football - and particularly friendly international football -  requires all previews to get their excuses in early. You know the drill: unpredictable line-ups yada yada yada, substitutions blah blah blah, keep stakes small.

At least, though, as with England’s clash with Spain last November, Wednesday night features a friendly worth getting your teeth into. Germany away is not a game that any England – or Germany – team will take lightly, and its significance is greater still as Gareth Southgate’s first game as full-time boss after two wins and two draws in his four games as interim manager.

A quick look at the two sides’ post-Euro records and an England squad missing Harry Kane and not including Andy Carroll, Danny Welbeck or Theo Walcott is to think low on goals.

The only goals England have conceded since the Iceland defeat were in the 89th and 96th minutes against Spain, while Germany have won five games to nil and drawn 0-0 against Italy since going out to hosts France at Euro 2016.

Both already look well placed for World Cup qualification, although Germany’s comfortable victories over the Czech Republic and Northern Ireland are perhaps more eye-catching than England’s sometimes stuttering efforts thus far.

Nevertheless, for both sides those recent drawn friendlies against Italy and Spain are perhaps the most relevant when looking at this game given the calibre of opposition and non-competitive status.

England – who, as they will in Dortmund, had to do without an injured Kane on that occasion – were hugely impressive before fading late on.

A draw here is certainly not to be dismissed at prices just shy of the 3/1 mark, while the defensive organisation of both sides means no goalscorer at double-figure quotes is worth a second glance for people who like their friendlies particularly entertaining.

A word of caution for that bet would be the absence of Germany’s formidable first-choice goalkeeper Manuel Neuer - Bernd Leno and Marc-Andre ter Stegen are set to play a half each in the Bayern Munich man’s absence.

But I’m going to put together England’s striker shortage and Germany’s missing first-choice goalkeeper, and throw in the eyebrow-raising fact that England have won their last three games against Germany in Germany and go for the Three Lions to find the net.

Specifically, Dele Alli to find the net. The Spurs man is 12/1 with bet365 to score the first goal and that just looks a fraction big given the absence of goalscorers in this England squad and Alli’s own prolific form.

Alli has scored 14 goals in his last 20 games, finding the back of the net in all four of his Spurs appearances since that horrendous red card in the Europa League against Gent.

The only Englishman with more Premier League goals than Alli this season is his absent team-mate Kane, with Sunday’s goal against Southampton taking the 20-year-old level with Jermain Defoe.

Alli’s Premier League goals this season have come at an impressive frequency of one every 155 minutes, and his all-competition total of 18 goals leaves even Defoe in his wake.

It’s true that Alli is likely to play in a slightly more withdrawn role for England than he does for Spurs, where since Christmas he has been operating chiefly as a true number 10 just behind Kane.

But he will still surely have licence for those late runs into the penalty area from midfield that have brought him so much success over the last two years. It would be foolish for England to do any different.

Alli has sometimes struggled to replicate his scintillating Spurs form on the international stage, but did mark his first start with the opening goal in a 2-0 win over France back in November 2015 and scored against Malta in one of his two England starts this season.

Another player to consider here is Adam Lallana at 16/1 – worth remembering that he converted an early penalty against Spain – but Alli’s form makes him the clear choice as England’s standout goal threat from behind the out-and-out strikers.

The 12/1 is a price that obviously has each-way appeal, but with goals expected to be at a premium and the clear possibility of Alli being among those players withdrawn in the usual flurry of second-half substitutes, we’ll go win only.

Scotland are also in action on Wednesday night, but it’s fair to say their clash with Canada falls somewhere lower down the 'glamour friendly' charts.

Canada have kept only one clean sheet in their last 11 games – against Mauritania.

Gordon Strachan has already said that Leigh Griffiths is the only Celtic player who will get minutes in the Easter Road clash, and bet365’s standout 6/4 in the anytime scorer market looks worth the risk that those minutes will be reasonably substantial. He’s odds-on with plenty of layers and even if he gets only a half here against this calibre of opposition the 6/4 looks generous.

Griffiths hasn’t started a game since December 28 – the reason he will make an appearance in this one – but did find the target from the bench in Celtic’s Scottish Cup win over St Mirren a fortnight ago.

Celtic boss Brendan Rodgers has challenged Griffiths to improve his attitude to training, and the striker – who scored 40 goals last season and was on a run of four goals in five games before breaking down in December – will surely be champing at the bit to take advantage of Wednesday’s opportunity at a ground he knows well.

Where to watch on TV:

Germany v England - ITV
Scotland v Canada - Sky Sports 1

Posted at 1340 GMT on 21/03/17.