Inter Milan take on Porto in the first leg of their Champions League last 16 tie. Liam Kelly provides the best bet.
Another Round of 16 tie that looks fairly open on paper, but Porto head to Milan at the worst time possible considering the Italian team's form.
Inter have really started to hit their stride in Serie A, holding a record of W5, D2, L1 since the World Cup break, showing signs they are returning to their best from a data perspective.
Too late to catch runaway leaders Napoli, Simone Inzaghi's side are in charge of the race for second and are favourites to advance to the Champions League quarter-final stage.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
As mentioned, Inter's underlying numbers are very promising, especially on the defensive end.
It's why INTER TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET is the sole selection for this first leg against Porto at the San Siro, available at 13/10 with William Hill.
In conceding just three goals across their last six league fixtures, Inter have not allowed any team to reach the 1.00 xG mark.
Indeed, they've averaged only 0.54 expected goals against (xGA) per game during that same span and are capable of keeping a Porto side that are not as free-scoring as they were earlier in campaign quiet.
Porto have not won any of their last five Portuguese Primeira Liga matches by more than a two-goal margin, despite a fairly easy schedule.
Sérgio Conceição's side have scored eight times and created chances equating to 6.49 expected goals for (xGF) in those games, an underwhelming amount given the competition.
As a result, Inter to keep a vital clean sheet in this first leg is the way to play it.
Inter Milan v Porto best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Inter Milan to keep a clean sheet at 13/10 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Inter Milan 2-0 Porto (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1000 GMT (21/02/23)
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