Inter Milan hold a two-goal advantage over Benfica ahead of their second leg clash. Jake Osgathorpe
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.25pts Nicolas Otamendi to be carded at 11/5 (Unibet)
1.25pts Marcelo Brozovic to be carded at 11/5 (Unibet)
1pt Goncalo Ramos to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
I'm swerving the traditional markets in this one as it's a tough one to call, and will instead focus on what looks like a great match-up for cards.
The second legs in the latter rounds of the Champions League tend to see an increase in cards shown, for the simple fact of the high-stakes that are at play. It's win or go home.
We can expect a competitive game with plenty of niggly fouls in this second leg, especially with Benfica chasing the game trailing 2-0 on aggregate, and the appointment of Spaniard Carlos del Cerro Grande means there is plenty of appeal in the player card markets.
Inter Milan v Benfica (agg: 2-0)
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV Channel: BT Sport 2
Home 21/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 23/10
Carlos del Cerro Grande is of a similar ilk to his fellow countryman Antonio Mateu Lahoz, who infamously dished out 287 cards in the World Cup quarter-finals.
He is strict, and doesn't hesitate to reach for his pocket. Over the course of the season so far, he has brandished 4.5 cards per game, but the stand out stat is that he has averaged 0.35 red cards per game.
Grande has shown 11 red cards in his last 22 matches, and two in his last three European outings.
So, with a good appointment, two feisty teams and plenty at stake, I'm going to take three players in the 'TO BE CARDED' market.
First up is a recognisable name - NICOLAS OTAMENDI.
The ex-Manchester City centre-back is clumsy to say the least, and also has a cynical nature to his game that helps in these kind of bets.
With Benfica chasing the tie, we can expect them to flood bodies forward, leaving Otamendi exposed and likely 1v1 against Romelu Lukaku, which spells danger for the Argentinian.
He has already been booked a whopping 14 times in 40 matches this season, and given the nature of this game, I was expecting to see prices of around 6/4 for a repeat here, so the 11/5 available should be snapped up.
This same bet is as short as 11/8 in places.
The second player on my hitlist is Inter Milan midfielder MARCELO BROZOVIC, who has become a consistent player for collecting cards.
He was cautioned in the first leg, and a repeat seems overpriced at 11/5 given he will be in the thick of the action. It is important to know that if he does get booked in this match, he won't be suspended for the semi-finals as the existing cards are wiped after the quarter-final stage.
The Croat has received a card in four of his last five matches across all competitions, and has been handed a yellow in 10 of his 26 outings this season.
Again, I would have taken 6/4 here, but we are getting 11/5 yet again, which looks too big.
A final play is a slightly bigger price at 15/4, backing Benfica's young striker GONCALO RAMOS TO BE CARDED.
His age plays into this a little, inexperienced in these kind of crucial ties, but also his playing style.
Ramos is a hustle and bustle striker who gets involved in the battles with his opponent, but like all good Portuguese players, he doesn't hesitate to 'take one for the team' by stopping a counter attack with a tip or a shirt pull.
So far this season he has been booked seven times, with the fouls being categorised by Flashscore as 'Roughing' (twice), 'Elbowing', 'Holding', 'Diving', 'Tripping' and 'Unsportsmanlike conduct' - highlighting the many ways Ramos has at his disposal to get into the referees book.
He is 15/4 to be booked on Wednesday - as short as 11/5 in places - and I would have him closer to 3/1 given the stakes at play. And, you never know, he could just add 'Removing shirt' to the above list should he score a late winner.
Inter Milan v Benfica best bets and score prediction
- 1.25pts Nicolas Otamendi to be carded at 11/5 (Unibet)
- 1.25pts Marcelo Brozovic to be carded at 11/5 (Unibet)
- 1pt Goncalo Ramos to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
Score prediction: Inter Milan 1-1 Benfica (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1220 BST (18/04/23)
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