Premier League relegation battle: Analysis, betting, remaining fixtures and verdict

Although Norwich sit four points adrift at the foot of the table, another four points separates 19th-placed Aston Villa and Brighton in 15th.

Realistically, the three sides heading for the Championship are going to come from that bottom six, with Southampton (33/1) and Newcastle (20/1) seven and eight points clear of the drop zone respectively, and surely safe.

Let's go from the bottom up.

Norwich City - 20th

Sky Bet odds: Survival - 11/2 | Relegation - 1/10

• Current position: 20th
• Current points: 21
• Current GD: -27

Remaining fixtures:

• Southampton (H)
• Everton (H)
• Arsenal (A)
• Brighton (H)
• Watford (A)
• West Ham (H)
• Chelsea (A)
• Burnley (H)
• Manchester City (A)

I cannot see Norwich closing a six-point gap, and it is probably seven points because of their vastly inferior goal difference, and then putting three teams beneath them as well.

Daniel Farke's side entered the relegation zone on October 5 when they were thrashed 5-1 at home by fellow newly-promoted team Aston Villa and they haven't left the drop zone since. An away defeat by the same opponents on Boxing Day sent them to the bottom, where they have remained.

The Canaries have failed to win back-to-back league matches all season, and only twice have they even managed to go two games without defeat.

If you're really desperate to have a flutter on Norwich becoming the latest club to perform the Premier League's great escape, then the only case I can make for their survival, and it's a thin one, is that five of their next six matches are against sides currently in the bottom half.

Trips to Chelsea and Manchester City either side of a home match with Burnley bring their season to a close, so on the face of it you'd think the job would need to be pretty much done by the time Farke's men get to Stamford Bridge.

But sadly for Norwich fans, it's teams such as themselves that they've struggled against most this season, collecting just four of their 21 points from meetings with the current bottom six.

Like I said, I simply cannot see a way out.

Verdict: Relegated

Aston Villa - 19th

Sky Bet odds: Survival - 7/4 | Relegation - 2/5

• Current position: 19th
• Current points: 25
• Current GD: -22

Remaining fixtures:

• Sheffield United (H)
• Chelsea (H)
• Newcastle (A)
• Wolves (H)
• Liverpool (A)
• Manchester United (H)
• Crystal Palace (H)
• Everton (A)
• Arsenal (H)
• West Ham (A)

Several things jump out when looking at Aston Villa's remaining fixtures, other than the obvious fact that they have one more game left to play than the rest of their relegation rivals.

Six home matches out of 10 - good news.

Fixtures against five of the current top seven - bad news.

I would say it's even worse than that too, because you can throw in a home game with Arsenal and away trip to Everton, teams who for the most part have been vastly improved under new managers, and whose league position therefore doesn't reflect their quality.

In stark contrast to bottom club Norwich, Villa are flat-track bullies: 20 of their 25 points have come from matches against teams currently in the bottom half. With only four bottom-half opponents remaining, and three of those away from home, I don't hold out much hope for Dean Smith's side.

In striking similarity to Norwich, with whom they were promoted from the Championship in 2018/19, Villa are painfully inconsistent, only once winning back-to-back league matches this term.

No team has kept fewer than Villa’s four clean sheets either, so I'm not exactly making a case for their survival. But they do have a trump card that no other side in the bottom six possesses.

Yes, their rivals have goal-scorers and outstanding players of their own, but nothing close to Jack Grealish. The midfielder will be sought after by a plethora of top clubs in the next transfer window, regardless of what division Villa are playing in come 2020/21.

And that could very well come down to his performances alone in this season's final 10 matches.

The other bright spark in their campaign has been Scotland international John McGinn, who'll be back fighting fit having last played on December 21.

But it would take something extraordinary from this midfield duo to fire Villa to safety, and I'm not backing it.

Verdict: Relegated

Bournemouth - 18th

Sky Bet odds: Survival - 5/6 | Relegation - 5/6

• Current position: 18th
• Current points: 27
• Current GD: -18

Remaining fixtures:

• Crystal Palace (H)
• Wolves (A)
• Newcastle (H)
• Manchester United (A)
• Tottenham (H)
• Leicester (H)
• Manchester City (A)
• Southampton (H)
• Everton (A)

In normal circumstances, Bournemouth's home form would keep them up in my book. But even then it would be close. So if the Premier League suffers anything like the kind of shift that we've seen in the Bundesliga in terms of the evaporation of home advantage without fans present, the Cherries will be in deeper trouble than they were already.

Just before the enforced break, Eddie Howe's side had managed to arrest a decline of one victory in 12 matches through heavy reliance on the Vitality Stadium. Successive wins over Brighton and Aston Villa were followed by a battling draw with Chelsea.

And given that they've lost three straight games on the road despite an upturn in performances at home, they'll be hoping 'the Bundesliga effect' leads to a marked improvement in away form too. Which should be possible for them.

The smallest club in the top flight, with a therefore understandably small away following, have suffered nine defeats from their last 10 away trips. So this change in dynamic could be exactly what they need in that respect.

Bournemouth's away trips are incredibly tough though: Wolves, Manchester United, Manchester City and Everton. The effect of the behind-closed-doors environment will need to be hugely in their favour.

Forget the fact they're 'home' games, the matches scheduled to be played on the Cherries' own patch are simply more winnable, and Howe's men will need to eek out just enough points on their own patch if they're to get over the line.

But being totally honest, I think they'll fall short. And even if you fancy them to do it, at the odds on offer I'd advise steering well clear.

They'll be hoping for a crucial contribution from the fit-again David Brooks, who hasn't played at all this season because of injury. With the Wales midfielder back to complement Calum Wilson, Joshua King, Ryan Fraser and Harry Wilson as attacking options.

Still, for me, it's not enough.

Verdict: Relegated

Watford - 17th

Sky Bet odds: Survival - 1/3 | Relegation - 9/4

• Current position: 17th
• Current points: 27
• Current GD: -17

Remaining fixtures:

• Leicester (H)
• Burnley (A)
• Southampton (H)
• Chelsea (A)
• Norwich (H)
• Newcastle (A)
• West Ham (A)
• Manchester City (H)
• Arsenal (A)

I almost need to write two separate verdicts here: Watford with and without Troy Deeney.

I'm not going to though.

Watford's win percentage drops by 11% without their talismanic skipper and that scenario is a distinct possibility for the remainder of the campaign, with the striker not keen on a return to training until his safety can be guaranteed, over fears he could infect his family, specifically his infant son, with coronavirus.

In short, I see the Hornets staying up either way. Of course, if they have their captain and one of their best players available then the chances of that are going to be much improved.

Since Nigel Pearson took over as manager in mid-December, Watford have looked a different team. Their crushing win over Liverpool in the penultimate game before the break was a perfect illustration of what they can do when everything goes to plan.

Pace, power and defensive organisation. Almost the copybook for Premier League survival.

They have a mixed bag of remaining fixtures, certainly nothing to lose sleep over, and a superbly talented squad when taken in the context of the sides they are competing with to remain in the division.

I would be surprised to see Watford playing Championship football next season.

Verdict: Survive

West Ham - 16th

Sky Bet odds: Survival - 2/5 | Relegation - 7/4

• Current position: 16th
• Current points: 27
• Current GD: -15

Remaining fixtures:

• Wolves (H)
• Tottenham (A)
• Chelsea (H)
• Newcastle (A)
• Burnley (H)
• Norwich (A)
• Watford (H)
• Manchester United (A)
• Aston Villa (H)

While David Moyes hasn't had the same transformative effect on West Ham as Nigel Pearson did in his first couple of months at Watford, there are many similarities in the the situations that these two clubs find themselves in.

Another squad packed full of talent, now led by a hard-nosed manager who wouldn't have had the team in the position they're in with a full campaign at the helm. That's no slight on the pedigree of Manuel Pelligrini, a Premier League winner with Manchester City and former Real Madrid boss, he simply didn't have good enough players to play the style of football both he, and perversely, the club wanted.

Moyes had gradually started turning the oil tanker around before the coronavirus pandemic hit, adopting a more pragmatic, basics-first approach that had been sorely lacking prior to his arrival.

I would suggest there isn't a single fixture left on the Irons list that they would look upon with any amount of anxiety, with trips to local rivals Tottenham and Moyes' former employers Manchester United the most tricky on paper but eminently winnable.

For me, West Ham simply have too much in all departments.

• Verdict: Survive

Brighton - 15th

Sky Bet odds: Survival - 1/4 | Relegation - 11/4

• Current position: 15th
• Current points: 29
• Current GD: -8

Remaining fixtures:

• Arsenal (H)
• Leicester (A)
• Manchester United (H)
• Norwich (A)
• Liverpool (H)
• Manchester City (H)
• Southampton (A)
• Newcastle (H)
• Burnley (A)

Brighton have won just once in 14 Premier League matches, so arguably are the team that will have benefited most from the interrupted season. Without it, my money was on them to go down.

Only bottom-of-the-table Norwich have collected fewer wins this term, so turning draws into victories will be crucial if Graham Potter's men are to stay up.

With Arsenal, Leicester, Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City all still to play, it looks daunting. But last time out they offered their supporters hope by battling to a goalless draw at high-flying Wolves.

The Seagulls have been one of the most outspoken clubs when it comes to opposing the concept of using neutral stadiums for the remainder of the season, understandable given that their meetings with 'Big Six' clubs are all scheduled to be played at the Amex.

However, if we have learned anything from the return of the Bundesliga then it is that home advantage seems to have disappeared with the fans that can no longer enter their beloved teams' stadiums.

And with realising it, Albion could actually be winners.

Only the current top four have completed more than passes their 14,903 this season, the same goes for total touches (20,829) and possession (54.2%).

With no crowd noise and outside influence to affect the outcome, Brighton can implement the same game-plan 'home' or 'away'. The neutral aspect suits them.

It is the teams that rely on - for want of a better term - crash, bang, wallop football that you feel will really struggle to replicate the strategies that have delivered them so much success in the past.

The more repeatable a match is for a metronomic team such as Albion, the better.

Verdict: Survive

Odds up to date as of 11:00 BST June 1

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