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How many goals will Harry Kane score for Bayern this season?
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This article was written before Harry Kane scored on his Bundesliga debut for Bayern Munich on Friday
I can't help but be drawn into the transfer gossip throughout the summer and I know I shouldn't.
And yet despite that, the one thing I largely ignored was the gossip surrounding Harry Kane's future.
There was an acceptance from me that he wouldn't leave Tottenham, and Bayern was a destination that I couldn't see happening with the finances mentioned. But here we are, a few days before the Bavarian giants kick off their campaign and I've already watched England's captain make an appearance for the club.
From the 14/1 outsider to be the Premier League's top scorer to the 1/2 favourite in the Bundesliga, the man who had a spot in my FPL side finds himself in my BL Fantasy XI, and with good reason.
An established goalscorer in a side barely battling for Europe now leads the line for one of its elite.
And that means only one thing: goals, goals, goals.
Harry Kane specials (via Sky Bet)
- To score 30+ goals in the German Bundesliga 23/24 - Evens
- To score 32+ goals in the German Bundesliga 23/24 - 7/4
- To score 34+ goals in the German Bundesliga 23/24 - 3/1
- To score 35+ goals in the German Bundesliga 23/24 - 4/1
- To score 37+ goals in the German Bundesliga 23/24 - 13/2
- To score 40+ goals in the German Bundesliga 23/24 - 18/1
Odds correct at 1735 BST (15/08/23)
Is Kane as good as Lewandowski?
With the club craving a suitable replacement for the prolific Robert Lewandowski - that much was evident last season - Kane has all the potential to put up similar, scary numbers.
A total of 213 Premier League goals in 320 appearances, an average of 0.67 goals per game, is remarkable for a club trending in the opposite direction to being title challengers in recent years.
The first major thing to note is that Germany's top flight is typically viewed as a higher scoring league, and the stats from 2022/23 back this up.
Per game averages - 22/23 (via Opta Analyst)
- Bundesliga: 3.17 goals | 2.94 xG
- Premier League: 2.85 goals | 2.90 xG
So not only is Kane bringing a consistent track record of goals with him - combined with top scorer titles at both Tottenham and England - but he's taking it to a country that benefits attacking players.
Across Kane's final season, he averaged 0.73 goals per Premier League game, an overperformance of 13.93% based on his actual goals tally to the underlying numbers (expected goals or xG as it's more commonly known).
His actual goals figure sits close enough to the 'quality' of chances he's been seeing. Those chances in a team that has made the top six just once across the past three seasons.
An elite striker now in an elite team
A simple repetition of those numbers would result in 24.82 goals per season for Bayern, but that won't factor in the significant step up in the quality of his new side.
While they were at different stages of their career, a transition of Lewandowski's average across his final three seasons as a Dortmund player would have delivered 23.12 goals in his first campaign at Bayern - the actual figure was 17.
And yet that was the only season in which he would fail to hit the 20-goal marker across his eight in Munich.
At Kane's age, Lewandowski netted 34 in the Bundesliga and 55 across all competitions (19/20 season).
Lewandowski's final three league campaigns as a Bayern player delivered a barely-believable average of 1.18 goals per game - Erling Haaland would manage 0.92 across the same period.
It's almost purely down to the historical quality of a club like Bayern. Regardless of the manager, regardless of the individuals within the side, it's a culture that's established dominance in Germany, and occasionally Europe.
Bayern have averaged 84.2 xG across the past three seasons, leading to 94 goals scored (an overperformance of 10.4%). They would average 2.53 xG per game in the nine games under Thomas Tuchel last season.
While a small sample size, it would lead to a continuation of the sort of figures we've seen from Bayern in recent years across a 34-game season. That is fantastic news for Kane.
At Tottenham, he scored 43% of Spurs' overall league tally. A repeat of that with Bayern's goals scored tally last season leads to a number of 39.56 - with 32.49 for their average following Tuchel's arrival.
Over the past three Premier League seasons, Kane has contributed 33.8% of Tottenham's goals. That would be 31.77 using Bayern's average across the same period (in the Bundesliga, of course).
Kane should score more than 30 goals
It all points towards him going above the 30-goal marker set by bookmakers in his debut campaign at the club, provided he is fit and available for large parts of it.
It's understandable to expect a period of adjustment, but Bayern rushing him in for involvement in the Super Cup will only serve to help that, as will a fixture list that sees them avoid any of last season's top four across their first five games.
Above all, it would be ludicrous to believe that a striker who has scored a minimum of 17 Premier League goals every season since his debut campaign in 2014/15 would drop off despite now sitting in a far better team.
The ingredients are all there for Lewandowski-like numbers to return to the Allianz.
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