Liverpool welcome rivals Manchester United on Sunday, and Sam McGuire assesses the game, highlighting why the Reds have a good chance of halting their rivals.
This has been the narrative heading into most Liverpool games this season, but the upcoming clash against Manchester United on Sunday is a must-win if the Reds are to keep their top-four hopes alive.
Anfield is the destination for the titanic clash with both teams having everything to play for. The hosts know a win cut United’s advantage over them to just seven points in their pursuit of playing Champions League football next term.
At the same time, the visitors can put themselves in a commanding position if they claim maximum points on enemy territory. If results go their way, they could finish the weekend seven points clear of Spurs in fourth with a game in hand.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Liverpool 7/5 | Draw 13/5 | Man Utd 7/4
Reds defence on the up
Liverpool go into this game a little under the radar. Jurgen Klopp’s side have kept four consecutive clean sheets in the league since the 3-0 defeat to Wolves in early February. Since then, the Reds have claimed 2-0 wins over Everton, Newcastle United and Wolves while also picking up a point at Selhurst Park.
The 5-2 loss to Real Madrid skews the perception of this period but, in truth, the 2019/20 Premier League champions have looked much more assured in recent weeks.
Granted, it isn’t the largest of sample sizes, but Liverpool’s expected goals against (xGA) average has been just 1.05 in those four Premier League matches while their expected goals for (xGF) average has been up at 2.12.
In a nutshell, they’ve been good going forward and have been able to limit the opposition. Ideally, the xGA average would be a little lower but given it is a small sample size, the figures from the bizarre Newcastle game do have a significant impact.
Everton, Crystal Palace and Wolves all failed to breach 1.0 xG in their respective matches against the Reds.
It wasn’t a defensive disasterclass against Real Madrid either. The reigning European champions were just ruthless, netting five times from chances equating to 1.59 xG, with Infogol calculating just a 2.3% chance the Spaniards fired in a quintet given their opportunities. In comparison, Liverpool's xGF was 2.21.
United on a roll
Manchester United, on the other hand, head into this game full of confidence and in superb form.
United have lost just two of their last 32 matches across all competitions. Since their 6-3 loss to neighbours Manchester City in October, the Red Devils have won 11 of their 17 Premier League matches, losing on just two occasions.
Aston Villa romped to a slightly undeserved 3-1 win in November while Arsenal snatched a deserved last-minute winner when the two old rivals met in January.
Erik Ten Hag’s men are just 11 points off the top of the table and have a game in hand.
Defensive vulnerabilities evident for Red Devils
The headline figures look incredible for the Red Devils, but there’s much more going on. For example, they have conceded the first goal in four of their last seven matches across all competitions. As evidenced by Liverpool late last season and earlier in this campaign, once you get into that habit it is difficult to get out of it.
Even in the games they didn’t concede first in, there’s been an overreliance on David De Gea between the sticks. The Spaniard single-handedly kept United in the game in the opening 30 minutes against Leicester City before the Ten Hag’s side coasted to victory.
This is sort of backed up by the numbers too. In their last five Premier League matches, the Red Devils have conceded an average of 1.85 xGA per game while generating an average 2.03 xGF per game. By no means are they impenetrable and Liverpool should be buoyed by this.
It is unlikely that Klopp will make such a drastic change to his system ahead of this game but it is worth noting that he has the players at his disposal to once again play a 4-4-2. It was a tactic he used successfully to frustrate Manchester City in the 1-0 win over them earlier this season.
Klopp can use blueprint of win over City
The system may slightly differ, with Liverpool using a 4-3-3 on paper, but the approach could be almost identical. Against the Premier League champions, the Reds adopted more of a mid-block press. They sat a little deeper and looked to hit the visitors on the break with quick transitions when defending. In possession, Klopp’s side would keep the ball in their half, lure City forward and then look to go direct.
An example of the latter can be seen below.
City are fairly aggressive with their press and commit five bodies forward. Though under pressure, the Reds retain possession and eventually, Thiago passes the ball back to Virgil Van Dijk.
The Dutchman quickly plays a big switch to James Milner on the Liverpool right and the hosts have bypassed the City press and are up against their backline.
You can see the space between the City defence and their midfield. You can also see how many bodies Liverpool have in that space to build an attack from a good area.
Direct play could be key
Adopting a similar approach against United could prove to be successful. The Red Devils have struggled against direct, aggressive teams in recent matches.
Leeds scored inside a minute after Tyler Adams stepped up and pressured Bruno Fernandes just inside the home side’s half. Leeds then committed five players to the attack and Wilfried Gnonto fired the ball beyond De Gea.
Leicester had a number of opportunities having dispossessed United in the middle third before breaking with numbers.
That sort of style is peak Liverpool under Klopp. They are still ruthless when they’re able to be patient before pouncing.
When there is space to attack, the Reds are still one of the best in Europe at ruthlessly making the most of counter-attacking opportunities. If they play this right, there will be space to attack on Sunday.
