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Euro 2020: How Italy reached - and won - the Euro 2020 final
Led by Roberto Mancini, Italy have continued their incredible pre-tournament form to win Euro 2020, doing so in a 'non-Italian' way for much of the tournament.
Let's look back at Italy's journey to triumph from a data perspective, which looked a real possibility almost immediately after they raised the curtain in the echoes of Nessun Dorma.
Italy govern Group A
Italy were perhaps the most impressive team in the group stages, deservedly beating Turkey, Switzerland and Wales to nil amid the home comforts of Rome with a potent mix of underlying metrics.
Talk of Italy's fresh, vibrant approach was certainly warranted, averaging 2.26 expected goals for (xGF) per game in what was thought of as a competitive group, but they remained an extremely solid defensive unit in the process.
Mancini’s side allowed just 12 shots equating to 1.36 xGA across their Group A fixtures, immediately displaying the Azzurri's credentials as possible Euro 2020 winners with 3-0, 3-0 and 1-0 victories.
Austria alarm
Any nation's trip to a major tournament final will be obstructed by hurdles, and a meeting with Austria in the round of 16 was Italy's first stumbling block.
Mancini's side started the game in a similar fashion to their Group A outings, peppering the opposition goalkeeper, albeit with low-probability shots, while denying Austria any kind of route towards Gianluigi Donnarumma's goal at Wembley.
However, Austria posed a much bigger threat in the second half after taking just one single shot (0.04 xG) in the opening 45 minutes. A Marko Arnautović headed goal in the 65th minute was disallowed by VAR, kicking the Italians back into gear.
Extra time was needed to separate the sides, though, with Federico Chiesa and Matteo Pessina dispatching the two biggest chances of the match (0.45 & 0.42 xG) to see Italy through to the quarter-final.
Ultimately, Italy's 2-1 win in extra time after a goalless 90 minutes was justified based on expected goals (xG: ITA 2.24 - 0.96 AUT), but it was their first sign of any vulnerability.
Back to best vs Belgium
Any sign of a flaw in Italy's game was nowhere to be seen in the opening stages of their manic quarter-final match-up against Belgium in Munich.
The Azzurri were dominant in taking a two-goal lead, holding their opponents to 0.25 xG en route to creating multiple scoring opportunities.
Romelu Lukaku's penalty in first half stoppage time offered Belgium a way back in the tie, which elicited a shift in mentality to a more familiar attitude for the Italians — defend your domain at all costs.
A late injury to Player of the Tournament candidate Leonardo Spinazzola on the counter-attack was a bitter blow as Mancini's men retreated further. Understandable given the circumstances, with Italy holding on for a 2-1 win, but it was a mindset that stuck in a riveting semi-final with Spain.
Azzurri scrape past Spain
What a spectacle. The fixture between two European powerhouses didn't disappoint, a game filled with quality and high-octane action that deviated from the pattern expected beforehand.
Spain were, of course, predicted to win the possession battle, but it was far more one-sided than anticipated, with Italy surprisingly giving ground considering their earlier approach to this tournament.
Italy were second-best for almost all of normal time in Tuesday's semi-final, struggling to create anything of note before Chiesa's opener and losing the xG battle for the first time in the competition. That was by some margin, too, clinging on for extra time after being run ragged.
The added 30 minutes proved to be a non-event as both sides seemingly settled for penalties (xG: ITA 0.78 - 1.74 SPA), with Italy advancing thanks to Jorginho's cool spot-kick.
On the basis of this win over Spain, Mancini's side are perhaps fortunate to be involved in the Euro 2020 final. However, over the course of the tournament, the Azzurri were more than worthy of a place.
Mancini's men rightly lift the trophy
After going 1-0 down against England in the opening two minutes, Italy showed the resilience we have come to expect from Roberto Mancini's men, who are now unbeaten in 34 international matches.
They rallied well and slowly got themselves back into the game, before stepping on the creative gas in the second half.
Leonardo Bonucci's goal was the games best chance, and pulled the Italians level, but what was impressive was how well they dealt with England's counter-attack throughout the whole game.
The Azzurri limited England to just 0.76 xG over 120 minutes of football which is some feat.
Player of the Tournament Gianluigi Donnarumma made two big saves in the penalty shoot-out as Italy prevailed at Wembley, deservedly so according to the balance of play and the chances created.
While it was bad news for England fans, it was good news for Sporting Life followers, as Italy were tipped up at 12/1 to win the competition in our pre-tournament betting preview.
