Can Fulham stay up? Expected goals analysis of their rapid improvement

As the old saying goes, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

On the opening day of the season, Fulham fielded three defenders who played significant minutes in their nightmarish 2018/19 Premier League campaign — Denis Odoi, Tim Ream and play-off final hero Joe Bryan.

After a rather underwhelming promotion campaign, it, predictably, didn't go well.

They were beaten handily by Arsenal, and subsequently gained just one point from their following five matches, allowing an average of 1.96 expected goals against (xGA) across those six fixtures. As a result, Fulham's xGA trendline rapidly jumped toward their 2018/19 level, a season in which they conceded a staggering 81 goals.

Scott Parker's side appeared to be relegation fodder.

What is Expected Goals (xG)?

• Expected Goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
• Expected Goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
• Expected Goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team

Fulham's transfer window wins

While doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result might be construed as insanity, sometimes, albeit rarely, we do see a contrasting outcome. Indeed, the distance between insanity and genius is measured only by success, and there is no better example than Fulham's transfer policy.

The Cottagers outspent Manchester City and Manchester United in the summer of 2018, splurging over £100m on a raft of new signings before their ultimately doomed season.

Admittedly, Fulham were much smarter in terms of transfer fees this season, but the sheer amount of player movement provoked criticism, with many suggesting that the club had failed to learn from previous mistakes.

I guess the trick is to recruit good players who upgrade the team. Easy! Eight of Fulham's starting 11 against Liverpool were new additions.

In fact, Fulham's personnel in the defensive unit is unrecognisable from their opening day defeat. That is the key area in Fulham's upward curve. After conceding 14 goals in their opening six matches, the Cottagers have shipped the same number in their last 18.

Of the new arrivals, Ola Aina, Antonee Robinson and Kenny Tete have all been accomplished performers, but the presence of centre-backs Tosin Adarabioyo and Joachim Andersen has transformed Fulham's defence.

A mid-season move to a back three elicited improvement on the defensive end but had an adverse effect on chances created. However, such is Parker's confidence in Adarabioyo and Andersen, a return to a back four has been implemented recently, and the progress made in defensive data has not stopped.

Fulham have averaged an eye-catching 1.04 xGA per game across the seven fixtures since the shift back to a four-man defence.

Their rolling xGA trendline has dropped impressively as a result, so much so that it has been overtaken by their xGF trendline for the first time in a long time in the Premier League.

As clear sign as any that this is a relegation contender performing at a mid-table level.

Areola among Premier League's best

Behind Fulham's much-improved backline is their most consistent performer — goalkeeper Alphonse Areola.

Areola, who joined Fulham on a season-long loan deal from Paris Saint-Germain in September, has produced some remarkable displays for the relegation battlers.

The French international passes the eye-test, commanding his area with ease thanks to his imposing stature, but he is a standout at the position from a data perspective, too.

Excluding own goals, Areola has conceded 30 goals from shots on target that equate to 36.6 post-shot expected goals (xG2), outperforming his numbers by 22%. He ranks top of all goalkeepers in the Premier League based on that metric, edging out Emi Martínez and Nick Pope.

What is xG2?

• xG2 is a post-shot model that, in this case, measures the likelihood of a goalkeeper saving the shots on target faced
• xG2 takes into account a variety of shot information such as placement, power, trajectory and other variables

Although xG2 data is a little noisy in this smaller sample size, it's clear to see from the company he keeps near the top that Areola is one of the better shot-stoppers in the top flight.

Given Fulham's recent enhanced defensive process, he may not be needed as much as he was earlier in the season, but when called upon, Areola has stepped up.

Lookman and Maja could be a dynamic duo

Admittedly, Fulham have been a little underwhelming going forward, creating chances amounting to 34.7 expected goals in 28 league matches this season (1.24 xGF per game). In addition, they've scored just 22 goals from those opportunities, a serious underperformance on their expected numbers.

On a more positive note, Ademola Lookman has been exceptional since his arrival. Not only is he Fulham's creator-in-chief, registering twice as many expected assists than any other player in the team (4.5 expected assists - xA), but only Aleksandar Mitrović has recorded more expected goals than Lookman this season.

Josh Maja's introduction to the club last month has also been a success. Alongside other attributes, Maja has quickly displayed the sought-after ability to put himself in excellent scoring positions.

In just 532 minutes, Maja has racked up 3.50 xG in a fairly concentrated area between the posts. It's important to understand the limitations in conclusions drawn from a small sample size, but his average of 0.63 xG per 95 minutes would rank amongst the Premier League's elite in the same metric.

Early signs are positive that Lookman and Maja could prove to be a dangerous duo for opposition defences in the final 10 games of the season, and possibly beyond if their loans are made permanent.

Will Fulham go down?

Saturday night's clash with champions-elect Manchester City is a shot to nothing for Fulham, but, however unlikely, you don't have to look back further than a week to see that a surprise is possible from an improving team.

Ultimately, Fulham's possible survival will hinge on games where they aren't facing a side sitting 14 points clear at the top of the table.

It's not difficult to envisage Parker's side achieving their goal.

Any improvement from an attacking standpoint, along with the continuation of solid defensive metrics, would see Fulham vault out of the relegation zone in the coming weeks.

Fulham's process was more insanity than genius at the beginning of the campaign, but, much like their 10-match rolling xGA and xGF trendlines, the difference between the two is now blurred.

If the Cottagers continue in the same manner and stay up, Scott Parker's achievement in reviving a side that looked sure to go down will be crystal clear.

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