England take on Denmark in the semi-final of Euro 2020, and Alex Keble highlights what the Three Lions need to do to beat the Danes.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: ITV
Venue: Wembley Stadium - London, England
England 7/10 | Draw 13/5 | Denmark 17/4
England versus Denmark is arguably the least predictable tactical battle of Euro 2020 so far.
Both are unknown quantities to a certain extent, such is the relative simplicity of their matches up to this point, but more importantly both managers have shown a tactical flexibility, in-game management, and squad rotation to leave the other uncertain about the best strategy to take.
In broad terms, Denmark are the all-action, high-pressing, high-line attackers who boast the third best xG at the tournament (11.17) while England are the cautious defenders who have been outshot, 90-37, by Denmark at Euro 2020.
The most likely tactical pattern of this game, then, is Gareth Southgate deciding to shut Denmark down by grinding out another low-scoring contest, hoping that his solid defence can slow and nullify the rhythms of a buoyant Danish attack.
But that does not tell us the whole story.
Denmark have flaws, particularly through midfield, that suggest England could play in a more aggressive 4-3-3 that looks to use a numerical advantage through the middle.
What’s more, Denmark’s excellent centre-back trio might easily keep a clean sheet should England be too negative. This is going to be a tight, nervy game settled by the two managers’ in-game changes.
Here’s how England can win it:
England should revert to a 3-4-3
Although the 4-0 victory over Ukraine will have encouraged the clamour for more attacking football, Southgate’s natural conservatism is likely to draw him back to a 3-4-3 – and with good reason.
Just as he mirrored Germany’s formation in order to shut down their wing-backs, going man-for-man with Denmark’s 3-4-3 should prevent left wing-back Joakim Maehle from dominating and see their fluid, narrow front three come unstuck against England’s centre-backs.
Maehle has been one of the players of the tournament so far; he ranks second in the tournament for dribbles attempted, behind Kylian Mbappe, and third overall for ball progressions.
Consequently, England might need wing-backs to stop him, Kieran Trippier going tight to Maehle and Kyle Walker supporting behind.
Denmark rank in the top five nations for ball progressions at Euro 2020, highlighting the directness and verticality of a side that presses high and looks to pierce through the opponent.
Their tournament has been defined by nations underestimating their qualities in this regard, hence why Southgate will be fearful of opening up in a 4-3-3, even though an extra body in central midfield could help them take advantage of Denmark’s weakness in that area (more on that later).
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg plays in a more advanced role than at Tottenham Hotspur and his driving forward runs sum up this powerful team.
England need to sit off and avoid pressing, as they have done throughout the tournament, and invite Denmark to try to break down the best defence in the competition.
This is likely to leave Martin Braithwaite, Kasper Dolberg, and Mikel Damsgaard looking a lot quieter than usual.
Denmark’s midfield flaw makes Sterling positioning crucial
England may struggle to attack with fluency from within the 3-4-3, as they did for long periods against Germany, and as such Southgate will probably pick quick counter-attacking forwards Raheem Sterling and Bukayo Saka to race behind the powerful Denmark back three.
But more important than Southgate’s team selection is how Sterling is deployed, because he holds the key to exposing a flaw in the Denmark midfield.
Just as we saw with Belgium in their defeat to Italy, the 3-4-3 can become too stretched in central midfield when deployed in a high line, high-pressing system.
Once the first line of pressure is evaded by the opposition the two-man midfield is left with huge spaces of grass to cover; the front three too high and a backpedalling back five too far away to help.
Czech Republic found some joy against Denmark because of this, hence the entertaining first half of their quarter-final before Kasper Hjulmand changed formation in the second.
England could look to exploit this by using Mason Mount as a number eight in a 4-3-3, but a more intelligent way for England to find a numerical advantage in midfield is to do it on the blind side, avoiding showing Hjulmand their hand.
Sterling was essential in turning the tide after a rocky start to England’s 2-0 victory over Germany, cleverly dropping deep and narrow to provide a forward passing option to Kalvin Phillips and Declan Rice.
This allowed England to build up the pitch, relieving some of that early pressure and preventing Phillips and Rice from being outnumbered centrally.
If Sterling plays in a similar role on Wednesday England can expose Denmark’s fatal flaw.
Southgate must react to Christensen’s changing role
But whatever the starting formation, this match is likely to be defined by which manager reacts better to the changing game states.
Southgate has historically been criticised for making substitutions too late, something that appears to be changing at Euro 2020, and he will certainly need to be sharp tactically to respond to the switches Hjulmand will make.
Against Wales and the Czech Republic he switched from a 3-4-3 to a 4-3-3 mid game, moving Andreas Christensen up into defensive midfield to help screen once both nations had discovered, and begun to exploit, the midfield issue mentioned above.
And against the Czech Republic Hjulman then changed again, to a 3-5-2, to close things out; Southgate will need to be quick off the mark, using the intelligence of the likes of Jude Bellingham, Mount, and Phil Foden to wrestle back control should Denmark shake things up.
Herein lies the challenge.
It will be a claustrophobic match, one teeming with the energy of a high-stakes semi-final and one ready to devolve into chaos once Hjulman and Southgate begin to make changes.
It is, from an England perspective, worryingly unpredictable – and likely to go beyond the 90 minutes.
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