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Arsenal v Burnley betting preview: Tips, prediction and latest odds for Premier League game
Saturday's early kick-off comes from the Emirates as Arsenal look to halt a two-match losing run. Ben Coley takes a look at the betting.
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2pts Arsenal to win to nil at 11/10
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Arsenal v Burnley (1230 GMT kick-off, Sky Sports Premier League)
It's clear to anyone who has watched Arsenal this year that Unai Emery has succeeded in changing the way the team play. There must surely have been a risk that what Arsene Wenger left behind would prove impossible to budge, but that has not been the case. Largely the same group are playing in a very different way. Some would say they've married style with substance.
Still, there are flickers of the old Arsenal, certainly at the back where Laurent Koscielny has been missed and Bernd Leno has had to learn the hard way that dealing with crosses is a definite requirement. It was his mistake that ended a 22-game unbeaten run at Southampton last Sunday, although Petr Cech was far from flawless on his return to the side in midweek as they were dumped out of the Carabao Cup by Spurs.
On the one hand, a home game with a hapless Burnley side looks an ideal way to put the last five days behind them, and if Arsenal can do that it will perhaps be another step in a new direction. In the later years of Wenger's reign, Arsenal became known for destructive weeks, often beginning with the a surprise defeat, taking in a midweek blow either in Europe or at home, and culminating in another failure. They ought to avoid such a fate here.
Burnley are in north London for the second Saturday in succession, and it will be hard for them to get back on the bike after losing to a stoppage-time goal at Tottenham.
Sean Dyche's side were criticised quite heavily for their stymieing tactics at Wembley but they almost paid off and, having previously shipped five at Man City and four at West Ham, who can blame them for starting from the back? Like Spurs, Arsenal are used to dealing with such a policy and they score enough late goals to ensure that Burnley are required to execute for 90 minutes and beyond if they're to return north with a point or more. It's a big ask.
Betting guide
Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Arsenal's only home defeat in the Premier League came on the opening weekend, when they lost 2-0 to Manchester City, and since then they've been extremely reliable without necessarily being impressive. There's a feeling that they're better served to playing on the road and on the break, which explains some hard-fought victories at the Emirates, and it may be that they again do something like the bare minimum. Burnley lost 5-0 here in May but that comes with a caveat - it was Wenger's final home game in charge - and previously they'd done well to cope with their more creative hosts.
Best bet: Arsenal to win to nil at evens
While they've not exactly looked hard to breach this season, Arsenal should find Burnley's attacking threat easy enough to contain. The visitors have failed to score in six of their nine away games in the Premier League and have mustered just one shot on target in the last four of them. It's possible that they become more ambitious, knowing that Arsenal have been softened up twice since Burnley last took to the field, but more likely is that their focus quickly moves to games with Everton, West Ham and Huddersfield over Christmas.
Goals: Granit Xhaka at 5/1/Lucas Torreira at 9/2
With the Arsenal big two both odds-on and Burnley likely to sit very deep, it might pay to take a chance on Granit Xhaka and Lucas Torreira. The pair have been vying for free-kick duties and, at 5/1 and 9/2 respectively, appeal as decent value. Torreira can also prove a threat making runs from deep, something the visitors have struggled to deal with. Similar cases can be made for Aaron Ramsey and even Nacho Monreal should they start.
RequestABet: 20+ bookings points, Arsenal 7+ corners and Torreira to score anytime at 13/2
These sides sit fifth and sixth in the bookings charts while Arsenal have hit a minimum of seven corners in each of their last six home games. They're expected to boss possession and force plenty more but their opening could come from deep, with Torreira looking the pick of their likely midfield options.
Opta facts and statistics
- Arsenal are unbeaten in each of their last 10 matches in all competitions against Burnley (W9 D1), conceding just four goals in the process and never more than once in a game.
- Burnley have lost all four of their Premier League matches against Arsenal at the Emirates by an aggregate score of 13-2.
- In all competitions, Arsenal have won their last seven home contests against Burnley, since a 0-1 defeat in September 1974.
- Arsenal have lost just two of their 18 home Premier League games in 2018, with both defeats coming against Manchester City (W13 D3 L2).
- Arsenal are looking to avoid consecutive Premier League defeats for the first time since the opening two games of the season.
- Arsenal have won their last 27 home league games against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (F81 A13) since a 4-4 draw with Tottenham in October 2008. Their last such defeat came in April 2007 against West Ham United (0-1).
- Burnley have failed to score in seven of their last 10 away Premier League games, including each of the last three in a row (W1 D2 L7).
- Burnley haven’t won any of their last 23 top-flight away games in December (D7 L16), since beating West Bromwich Albion 1-0 in 1969.
- Burnley boss Sean Dyche has lost all seven of his matches against Arsenal as a manager, with his teams conceding 15 goals and scoring just twice.
- Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been directly involved in 17 goals in his 16 Premier League home games (12 goals, 5 assists), including two goals and an assist against Burnley in this fixture last season.
Odds correct as of 1220 GMT on 20/12/18