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Carabao Cup free betting tips for Tuesday September 21 including Luton v Man Utd
After three winners and a successful Sporting Life Accumulator in round two, Joe Townsend previews Tuesday's Carabao Cup third round, featuring Luton v Man United.
Recommended bets
1pt Mason Greenwood to score anytime in Luton v Man Utd at 8/5
1pt Mason Greenwood to have 4+ total shots in Luton v Man Utd at 7/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Luton v Manchester United
- 8.15pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 1/3 | Draw 18/5 | Away 8/1
Much has been said and written in recent days about Manchester United's displeasure at the social media criticism they've received for a lack of summer transfer activity.
That noise will have gone up several decibels on Saturday evening as United were outplayed, outthought and outfought by Crystal Palace in losing 3-1 at Old Trafford.
Imagine the uproar if they lost to Sky Bet Championship opposition in the Carabao Cup. Well Luton will fancy their chances.
Nathan Jones' side have won all four of their matches this season, conceding only twice. In the opening round they pulled off a shock of sorts by easily dispatching recently relegated Norwich 3-1 at Kenilworth Road.
That remains their only win by more than a single goal however, so the Hatters have hardly been romping to victory.
Perhaps the worst thing that could have happened from their perspective was for United to put in such an abject display at the weekend, as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men looked rusty. Another run-out may in actual fact be exactly what they need.
Man United reached the semi-finals of this competition last season, but were lucky to scrape through at this stage, needing a penalty shootout to get past League One strugglers Rochdale.
That night Solskjaer went with a mixture of youth and experience, and expect him to do the same here.
As he did at Old Trafford 12 months ago, one player who is near enough sure to start is Mason Greenwood. The England striker was a second-half substitute against Palace, perhaps not given a start as punishment for his off-field antics that dominated back-page headlines before the season got back under way.
Only United were punished though, as they missed him badly.
Even when not starting centrally, Greenwood tends to occupy that area of the pitch a lot more in matches when Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial are absent, giving him more opportunities on goal. I expect him to be in the thick of things against Luton.
Under Jones the Hatters play a midfield diamond, and they do it well, but it's rare they will come up against an inside-forward like Greenwood. He should be able to find acres of space drifting in from the right.
His seven attempts at this stage of the competition last term was almost four times what you can expect from him on a normal day, so backing Greenwood to have 4+ total shots at 7/4 feels like a really smart play.
Of course any player-specific Carabao Cup tip is fraught with risk, but I would be shocked if United didn't name a front three including both Greenwood and Odion Ighalo. Sadly I can't wait until the team sheets are in to publish this preview...
While Ighalo's goalscorer odds have plummeted following his impressive returns for United whenever he has been given a rare start, for some reason Greenwood's remain slightly higher than his fellow United forwards - that's despite finding the net 10 times in 12 starts last term.
At 8/5 to score anytime he is great value, and I'm very tempting to take the Sky Bet boosted 7/1 for him to score a brace.
He really does love the cups.
Score prediction: Luton 0-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bets:
Leyton Orient v Tottenham
- 6pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
NOTE: THIS GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED SINCE THIS PREVIEW WAS PUBLISHED
Brutal. There's no other way of describing Tottenham's early-season fixture list.
Sunday, Thursday, Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday, Sunday - and breathe. It's unlikely to stop there either, with Jose Mourinho's side heavy favourites to progress from both this tie and Thursday's Europa League qualifier against North Macedonian team Shkendija.
Victory against Leyton Orient would mean another match next midweek, sandwiched between Sunday's home game with Newcastle and a trip to Manchester United a week on Saturday. It's likely it would be against Chelsea, who face Barnsley in their third-round tie.
Like I said, brutal.
Spurs could be forgiven then, for pushing this meeting with their London neighbours way down their priority list. But that's not how Mourinho teams work, even in such trying circumstances.
During his stints in charge of Chelsea and Manchester United, the Portuguese coach won the Carabao Cup four times and in both of his maiden seasons at each club. He knows the value of winning a trophy quickly, and with Tottenham's sole piece of silverware this century coming in this competition back in 2008, it would surely go down well with their fanbase.
Quite rightly a lot has been made of Dele Alli's omission from the Spurs' squad for their past two matches, with PSG reportedly interested in taking the England midfielder to the French capital.
Mourinho's very simple explanation was that he has a bloated squad, suggesting that Alli will feature at the Breyer Group Stadium on Tuesday night. Even with his drop-off in form since early 2019, that is test for a Sky Bet League Two defence.
Alli is 17/10 to score anytime and 11/2 to be first goalscorer - both of which look good.
Anyone who's watched All or Nothing: Tottenham Hotspur will have seen the no frills way in which Mourinho managed the midfielder in the early part of his reign, which elicited his best form of the past two years: sandwiching four goals in three games with match-winning displays against West Ham and Burnley.
Perhaps this is merely just another Jose tactic.
Whatever is going on, 17/10 for Dele to score against Leyton Orient is excellent if he starts. Unfortunately, with too much speculation surrounding his future it doesn't make my staking plan.
Watch him start and score now...
🗣️ "I just have lots of players in that position".
— Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) September 20, 2020
👀 Jose Mourinho on Dele Alli's absence.
👇 #coys #thfcpic.twitter.com/LtUKNwEOz2
So despite a ridiculously congested fixture list, Spurs could in fact field a very strong team.
It would be a shock though, if any of the players who started at St Mary's on Sunday are in the XI at Brisbane Road.
And for a team who are already porous in defence - Tottenham improved after lockdown but have failed to keep a clean sheet in three attempts this season and managed only three away from home in all competitions last term - such upheaval is unlikely to help solve that issue.
Leyton Orient may be a Sky Bet League Two side but they will enter this contest with plenty of belief.
The O's are unbeaten in all five of their matches this season, finding the scoresheet in every game. Combining that with Spurs' well-known defensive deficiencies makes both teams to score at 5/6 a price worth taking.
Despite their crippling fixture list I just can't shake the feeling that Tottenham will come out all guns blazing for this one, especially given the positivity that is suddenly surrounding the club following the return of Gareth Bale and a 5-2 walloping they gave Southampton at the weekend.
With the players Mourinho has sidelined keen to show their manager what they've got Tottenham/Tottenham half-time/full-time at 6/5 looks like a smart play to me.
Score prediction: Leyton Orient 1-3 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bets:
Odds correct at 1315 BST (21/09/20)
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