Football betting tips: Nations League
2.5pts England to win at 10/11 (Betfred, Unibet)
1.5pts Harry Kane to score anytime at 7/4 (Betway)
1pt Harry Kane 1+ assists at 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Jude Bellingham to score anytime at 11/2 (Betway)
BuildABet @ 30/1
- England to win
- Kane to score anytime
- Bellingham to score anytime
- Kane 1+ assists
God bless England for providing the ultimate stress test to this shambles of a tournament.
The latest iteration of UEFA's needless Nations League thankfully comes to an end - the group stage anyway - in a few days' time.
It's provided yet further evidence, as if it were needed, of just why this competition should have stayed on a focus group whiteboard in the picturesque Swiss town of Nyon, home to UEFA's predictably ritzy HQ.
It wasn't enough for the Three Lions to be relegated from the top division, rendering the fundamental basis of the Nations League - to provide more competitive, and fewer heavily one-sided, games - redundant, the Football Association placed an interim manager in charge for all six fixtures.
Before appointing his very high-profile, permanent replacement after four of them.
And then announcing he's not in charge yet.
Until January.
The very predictable net result of leaving a straw man at the helm for the remaining fixtures of a meaningless tournament has been the withdrawal of a remarkable eight (31%) of England's original 26-player squad - nine in total after replacement Jarrad Branthwaite pulled out on Wednesday evening.
None of this will prevent England's trip to Greece being billed as 'must win'. A crunch encounter.
Only victory puts hopes of promotion back in the control of Lee Carsley's side, and for all my obvious disdain for this competition, I believe they will win.
What are the best bets?
That makes the 10/11 about ENGLAND TO WIN a price that should be backed, an enormous overreaction to both Greece's four wins from four and the spate of withdrawals from which Carsley has suffered.
The Three Lions were rudderless in the reverse fixture at Wembley, a direct result of their interim manager's decision to experiment by selecting no striker and instead playing all of Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden and Cole Palmer in central areas.
Trent Alexander-Arnold also finished the match at left-back. I could go on...
Goalkeepers: Dean Henderson (Crystal Palace), Jordan Pickford (Everton), James Trafford (Burnley).
Defenders: Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace), Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa), Rico Lewis (Manchester City), Kyle Walker (Manchester City), Lewis Hall (Newcastle), Taylor Harwood-Bellis (Southampton), Jarrad Branthwaite (Everton), Tino Livramento (Newcastle)
Midfielders: Conor Gallagher (Atletico Madrid), Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest), Angel Gomes (Lille), Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Curtis Jones (Liverpool), Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa)
Forwards: Anthony Gordon (Newcastle United), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Noni Madueke (Chelsea), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa), Dominic Solanke (Tottenham), Jarrod Bowen (West Ham)
It was a wonderful performance from Greece, and yet England still came within seconds of a draw, but for some cataclysmic defending from Levi Colwill and Rico Lewis gifting Vangelis Pavlidis a 94th-minute winner.
England will name an XI more than good enough to beat Greece, with much of the spine of their run to the final of Euro 2024 available, and formidable.
None more so than their captain.
Count on Kane
HARRY KANE's absence was the key factor in England's 2-1 defeat last month, as his unavailability saw Carsley jump at the chance to rail against what he bizarrely perceived to be decades of inertia, where apparently playing a striker had been our problem all along.
As for Kane, it's rare we see the Three Lions skipper 7/4 TO SCORE ANYTIME so this is a price we must take; 68 goals in 101 international appearances speaks for itself, as does 19 goals in 19 games for club and country this season.
Kane's role during the three matches he has played under England's interim boss has seen a continuation of him dropping deep to be as much provider as scorer.
To Carsley's credit, his inclusion of pace on the flanks has given the Three Lions' record goalscorer more support and opportunities to link with team-mates.
It's much closer in set-up to Bayern Munich, where Kane has provided an ASSIST in three of his last four appearances, and seven already this season - a steep increase from the 12 in total for a dysfunctional side in 2023/24.
Taking the 6/1 about KANE 1+ ASSISTS is therefore also advised.
Back Starboy Bellingham
JUDE BELLINGHAM will be the other genuine world-class player in action on Thursday night.
In a shock to no-one, it was he who looked to have salvaged a point in the dying moments against Greece with a trademark strike from nowhere.
With Foden, Palmer and Jack Grealish all absent, Bellingham will be England's number 10, hugely boosting the prospects of him SCORING ANYTIME.
Even without that likely, more advanced role, the Real Madrid midfielder has scored five goals in his last 13 England appearances, highlighting just how overpriced he looks to be at 11/2.
Team news
Greece midfielder Dimitrios Kourbelis is suspended, meaning Petros Mantalos, Christos Zafeiris or Sotiris Alexandropoulos are likely to start.
Vangelis Pavlidis scored twice in the reverse fixture but is under pressure for his place with the return from injury of Fotis Ioannidis, who scored three times in the first two Nations League fixtures.
England are without more than a dozen players who would ordinarily have been expected to make the squad.
Morgan Rogers and Lewis Hall perhaps have the best chance of forcing themselves into the side but it is likely Lee Carsley will name as experienced a team as possible. Noni Madueke should make his full debut, while Anthony Gordon, Angel Gomes and Rico Lewis are again expected to make the starting XI.
Predicted line-ups
Greece: Vlachodimos; Rota, Mavropanos, Koulierakis, Tsimikas; Siopis, Mantalos; Masouras, Bakasetas, Tzolis; Pavlidis.
England: Pickford; Walker, Konsa, Guehi, Lewis; Gomes, Gallagher; Madueke, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.
Match facts
- Greece went winless across their first nine meetings with England in all competitions (D2 L7) before winning 2-1 at Wembley last month. The only teams to beat the Three Lions twice in the same calendar year are Wales in 1936, Italy in 1973, Belgium in 2018 and Hungary in 2022.
- England have won on all four of their previous trips to face Greece by an aggregate score of 9-1, only holding a better 100% win-rate away from home against Luxembourg (5/5).
- Greece are on the longest active winning run of any European nation in all competitions (5 games) and could win six consecutive matches for the first time November 2013.
- England are unbeaten in their last seven away games (W5 D2), their longest such run on the road since 12 games in a row between March 2013 and October 2015 under Roy Hodgson.
- Greece have gone 286 minutes without conceding at home since Youssouf Fofana netted for France in November last year, their longest run on home turf without their opponents netting since going 617 minutes between February 2012 and October 2013.
- This will be England’s 16th game of 2024, only ever playing more games in 1966 (17), 2018 (17) and 2021 (19) – the Three Lions have lost four times this calendar year however, only losing more times in 1981 (5).
- Greece’s Anastasios Bakasetas has had a hand in 13 goals across his last 14 appearances in the UEFA Nations League (6 goals, 7 assists) and since the inaugural edition of the competition in 2018-19 is the only player to both score (6) and assist (7) more than five times.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (05/09/24)
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