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Jack Grealish: Manchester City's final piece in the jigsaw?
Pep Guardiola was exaggerating, but perhaps not by much. “I would like to have one thousand midfield players in my squad,” he said a few years ago.
With Manchester City signing Jack Grealish, Guardiola will have both a unique performer and another for his litany of attacking, interchangeable midfielders.
Buy Grealish and not Harry Kane and, with Sergio Aguero leaving, City would seem highly likely to carry on with Guardiola’s ploy of fielding a false nine.
It could be Grealish: he was often used on the left by Aston Villa, and could drop into midfield as a No. 8, but, while Riyad Mahrez is used almost exclusively on the right, the versatility of Kevin de Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden and Grealish suggests their duties could alter match by match and that each could take a turn as the false nine.
Wherever each is played, it suggests Guardiola is doubling down on a theory. The most creative team will get more creative. In some ways, Grealish ranks second among equals.
Only one player averaged more than his 6.18 shot-creating actions per 95 minutes in last season’s Premier League: Kevin de Bruyne, at 6.40. In Mahrez (3.88), Foden (3.73), Ilkay Gundogan (3.64), Sterling (3.55) and Silva (3.49), the supporting cast are bunched close together. With Grealish, City have seven of the 29 most creative players.
Grealish was sixth in the division for completed passes into the penalty area. De Bruyne ranked third, Joao Cancelo seventh, Mahrez 15th. The Aston Villa captain’s tally of 10 assists put him behind just three players, including Kane and De Bruyne. His expected assists per 95 minutes, at 0.34, ranked him second among regulars: to De Bruyne, inevitably.
Grealish averaged 3.1 key passes per game, De Bruyne 3.2. They were twinned at the top of the chart of goal-creating actions per 95 minutes, on 0.86. As Foden was fourth, Mahrez 12th and Sterling 20th, it underlines what a galaxy of talent Guardiola now has.
So far, so similar. There are a couple of ways in which Grealish could add another dimension to City. He was fouled 110 times, 22 more than anyone else and 64 more than any City player; it shows they run at defenders less than him.
He was fouled 167 times in 2019-20, a record for a Premier League season. City scored 13 set-piece goals last season, putting them fourth. Given De Bruyne’s delivery, that tally could rise if Grealish wins a multitude of free kicks.
Then there is that ability to run with the ball. Sterling actually made more dribbles last season but no midfielder or attacker in the division carried the ball more progressive distance (forwards, in other words) than Grealish, with 5758 metres. Apart from Adama Traore, Silva (5004) came closest. No one carried the ball into the box more than Grealish: 80 times, 18 clear of Sterling.
All of which will help City dominate possession and get into promising positions. They will create opportunities. Getting goals is another matter. Gundogan struck 17 times in all competitions last season. He had never previously topped six, so it is logical to assume he will revert to the mean.
That could be cancelled out if Sterling, who got 13 in 2020-21, returns to the form that got him 23, 25 and 31 in the previous three campaigns, or if Gabriel Jesus or Ferran Torres became a prolific regular. If not, the various midfielders may have to chip in with more.
Last year, Grealish’s six league goals put him level with De Bruyne. He only managed more in one previous campaign, with eight in 2019-20. In some senses, he was less of a goal threat than his potential future team-mates. He averaged 0.70 shots on target per 95 minutes (and has averaged between 0.61 and 0.70 in each of the last four campaigns).
City wingers or attacking midfielders Sterling, Mahrez, Foden and De Bruyne all averaged significantly more, between 0.99 and 1.13. Grealish’s shots came from an average of 16.8 yards: closer than De Bruyne’s, with his fondness for long-range efforts, but further than City’s other attacking midfielders. Part of Guardiola’s tactics involves getting them into the box and into scoring positions; for Grealish to adapt, he will have to get into the box and on the end of passes or crosses from others.
He has been a good enough finisher to beat his expected goals total in the last two seasons but only two of his top-flight goals have come from inside the six-yard box. He has not been the penalty-box predator.
Last season, Gundogan got 11 goals from inside the 18-yard area and Foden nine to Grealish’s four. Playing in a better, more creative team would help but if City are to share the goals around, they may need Grealish to improve his return of 0.24 goals per 95 minutes. Last season, Gundogan mustered 0.58, Foden at 0.50 and Mahrez at 0.41. De Bruyne managed 0.42 in 2019-20.
Grealish may rank second only to him as a creator, but if City don't bring in a striker, they may need him to take chances as well.