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Golden boot tips: World Cup top goalscorer predictions, best bets and preview
As the World Cup approaches Tom Carnduff takes a look at the Golden Boot markets to pick out his best bets for who will finish as top scorer in Qatar.
Football betting tips: World Cup 2022
2pts e.w. Neymar to win the Golden Boot at 16/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Lautaro Martinez to win the Golden Boot at 33/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)
- Karim Benzema ruled out through injury - previously advised bets are void
World Cup 2022 Golden Boot winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Harry Kane - 7/1
- Kylian Mbappe - 8/1
- Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi - 14/1
- Neymar, Romelu Lukaku - 16/1
- Richarlison - 20/1
- Lautaro Martinez, Memphis Depay - 25/1
A winter World Cup means this will be a tournament like no other but we should still expect the best strikers in the game to shine on the biggest stage of all.
Team success is of course their main goal, but those players will also have one eye on winning the coveted Golden Boot by finishing as top goalscorer.
Harry Kane took the prize in 2018 as England, surprisingly, reached the semi-finals. Naturally, the further a team gets the more opportunities a player will have to strike.
Is there a difference between Golden Boot and Top Scorer?
The World Cup Golden Boot is given to the player who has scored most goals in the tournament. If more than one player is tied, ties are broken by another criteria (i.e assists or minutes played) to decide who wins the award. 'Top scorer' is simply who has scored the most goals, leaving a greater likelihood for a dead heat.
For each-way terms and dead heat rules always check the relevant bookmaker's terms and conditions.
How many goals are needed to win the Golden Boot?
Since the first World Cup in 1930, the average goals required to finish as the tournament's top goalscorer is 7.10. More recently, the average across the last five World Cups has been exactly six goals - the number Kane scored in Russia.
It's why some familiar names are such a big price in the betting. Heung-min Son won the Premier League Golden Boot in 2021/22 but South Korea are going to struggle to qualify from a group containing Portugal and Uruguay.
A contender needs to be both good enough to score the goals themselves and also star for a nation expected to go deep in the tournament. Even with those limitations, the market has provided some big prices.
Can Karim Benzema win the Golden Boot?
- Published prior to news of Benzema's injury
We'll start by focusing on the shortest price of our three selections.
Having just been named the 2022 Ballon d'Or winner, KARIM BENZEMA provides huge appeal at 14/1.
Benzema finished the 2021/22 campaign with 44 goals in 46 appearances across all competitions for Real Madrid, also contributing a further 15 assists.
Since returning from international exile he's been among the goals, netting four at Euro 2020 even as France suffered a shock last-16 exit, losing in a shootout to Switzerland.
The forward's last seven competitive appearances for Les Bleus have returned six goals with strikes against Belgium and Spain as they won the 2021 Nations League, and against Denmark in the latest edition.
France line up alongside the Danes, Australia and Tunisia in Group D. Topping it gives them a likely route of Mexico, England and one of Belgium or Portugal to the final. All winnable fixtures; all fixtures that should see Benzema have opportunities to score.
He has proven time and again he can capitalise and with 14/1 available, he's well worth backing.
Can Neymar win the golden boot?
Brazil find themselves as clear favourites in the outright market.
It's hardly a surprise given the expectation placed on the South American nation at every tournament. Add to that that they finished well clear in CONMEBOL qualifying - six points ahead of rivals Argentina.
NEYMAR finished as the second-highest scorer and there is value to be had in backing him to strike on multiple occasions in Qatar.
Those eight qualification goals came despite the face he wasn't always available. Brazil may have played 17 matches but Neymar only featured in 10.
He found the net against Ecuador and Uruguay - sides who will be joining A Seleção at the World Cup - so it isn't a case of stats padding against those at the bottom of the group.
When available he plays virtually every minute. His flexibility of being able to play out wide or through the middle is key here, as is his ability to score regardless of his position in the XI.
Brazil should top a Group G containing Serbia, Switzerland and Cameroon. They could well meet Uruguay in the round of 16; Neymar found the net in a comprehensive 4-1 victory in qualifying.
Expect Neymar to do the majority of his scoring in the group stage but even with a tricky looking run to the final, he should still have plenty of opportunities.
Can Lautaro Martinez win the golden boot?
Argentina have a really favourable group as they look to start the tournament with some early momentum. They're in Group C alongside Poland, Mexico and Saudi Arabia - they should be targeting a maximum nine points.
They finished second to Brazil in CONMEBOL qualifying and were the second-highest scorers. Crucially, they didn't lose any of their 17 games.
While the focus will be on Lionel Messi, backing LAUTARO MARTINEZ is the value pick.
The forward matched Messi's seven goals in qualifying and the eye-catching element was how many came following Argentina's 2021 Copa America triumph.
Five of his seven were scored from 2021 onwards, all in separate matches. The Inter striker also scored when they beat Italy in the Finalissima at Wembley.
He will start alongside Messi and his domestic showings give hope to a strong tournament. Martinez scored 25 goals in 49 games for Inter in 21/22, form he has carried into this season. His record of 21 goals in 40 games for La Albiceleste since his debut in March 2018 is very impressive.
Argentina have a strong possibility of very winnable contests in the round of 16 too. They could well come up against Denmark and then the Netherlands on their route to the semi-final, where they may meet Brazil.
That's five games where Argentina should be on top, meaning Martinez will have plenty of chances to find the net.
He's an outsider when it comes to some of the other bigger names that he is battling for this accolade, but he's a forward that shouldn't be 33/1.
World Cup Golden Boot best bets
- 2pts e.w. Neymar to win the Golden Boot at 16/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4)
- 1pt e.w. Lautaro Martinez to win the Golden Boot at 33/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Odds correct at 1630 BST (23/10/22)
Preview updated at 2300 GMT (19/11/22)
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