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Golden boot tips: Women's World Cup top goalscorer predictions, best bets and preview
Cameron Pope is Sporting Life's women's football expert. He also provides content for BBC Sport, TalkSport, DAZN and IMG.
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Football betting tips: Women's World Cup 2023
2pts Rachel Daly to win the Golden Boot at 10/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Alba Redondo to win the Golden Boot at 14/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Geyse to win the Golden Boot at 33/1 (General)
Women's World Cup 2023 Golden Boot winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Alex Morgan - 5/1
- Sophia Smith - 8/1
- Rachel Daly - 10/1
- Esther Gonzalez - 12/1
- Sam Kerr - 13/1
- Alexandra Popp, Alba Redondo - 14/1
- Geyse - 33/1
Odds correct at 12:00 BST (15/7/23)
The women's game is finally starting to garner the attention it deserves and this summer's World Cup promises to be the biggest yet, with a wealth of cross-globe talent poised to make their mark in Australia and New Zealand in July and August.
And while winning the event is of course a team success, many stars and under-the-radar figures alike will have one eye on individual honours: the famous Golden Boot award.
Megan Rapinoe won the accolade in 2019 as the USA secured back-to-back tournament wins, reminding us just how important a deep run is for a striker's chances in the goal stakes. Only once - when Germany's Celia Sasic finished top in 2015 - has a World Cup finalist not won the Golden Boot.
Is there a difference between Golden Boot and Top Scorer?
The World Cup Golden Boot is given to the player who has scored most goals in the tournament. If more than one player is tied, as happened last time out, ties are broken by other criteria (i.e assists or minutes played) to decide who wins.
This ultimately meant the 2019 award went to Rapinoe, whose record of six goals and three assists was identical to teammate Alex Morgan's, but was achieved in 52 fewer on-field minutes.
'Top scorer' is simply who has scored the most goals, leaving a greater likelihood for a dead heat.
- For each-way terms and dead heat rules always check the relevant bookmaker's terms and conditions.
How many goals are needed to win the Golden Boot?
The first Women's World Cup in 1991 saw the USA's Michelle Akers scoop the award with 10 goals, but a maximum of 7 goals has been needed to secure the award since then, with a post-1995 average of 6.3.
However, the Australia/New Zealand tournament will be the first to feature 32 teams; the previous two events saw 24 nations take part, after an expansion from the original 12 to 16 in 1999.
As such, we're in unchartered waters as far as the Golden Boot is concerned and it may well take more than Rapinoe's six to win top honours.
Can Rachel Daly win the Golden Boot?
Nine goals in her last five games saw Aston Villa's Rachel Daly pip Khadija Shaw to top-scoring honours in this season's Women's Super League, with a joint-record 22 for the season in all, and there's no reason why the England striker cannot light up this World Cup.
Beth Mead's ACL injury means the onus is on England's other attackers to find the net, but if Daly, or new Arsenal signing Alessia Russo, can step up to the plate, a run to the latter stages for the Lionesses could definitely land an English player in top spot for the first time.
What's more, an opening game against a Haiti side ranked 53rd in the world presents a prime opportunity for a goalsome start.
There's more to Daly than meets the eye, too. One of the most versatile members of the squad, she actually started every Euro 2022 game at left-back, but was moved into attack by Sarina Wiegman in November 2022 as the England boss sought a replacement for the retired Ellen White.
Russo, subject to a world record transfer bid from Arsenal in January before eventually departing Manchester United on a free this summer, is her biggest threat for the main strike role, but the Villa player's end-of-season form surely means the jersey is hers; at least at the outset.
If she channels anything like the goalscoring energy she brought to Aston Villa's attack into England's World Cup effort, the effect could be devastating and for that reason, a 10/1 market price has me leaning towards her as an option ahead of bookies' favourites Alex Morgan and Sophia Smith.
Can Alba Redondo win the Golden Boot?
If you're looking for an outside shout for the Golden Boot, look no further than Spain's 14/1 shot Alba Redondo. Can the top scorer in one of Europe's top leagues, reportedly on the radar of several WSL teams, outscore the rest of the field? Absolutely.
The length of her odds are unsurprising given that Redondo will be a relative unknown even to many cultured women's football fans. While the likes of Asisat Oshoala and Esther Gonzalez stole headlines for Barcelona and Real Madrid, Redondo spearheaded a tricky Levante front line as the Granotas cantered into the Liga F top three and secured a Champions League return.
Aged 26, Redondo is no young upstart, but rather an experienced striker who burst into life in 2022/23 with 27 goals in 30 league games, having plugged away with consistent returns throughout her five previous top-flight seasons.
She's playing the best football of her life and has a respectable 11 goals from 26 caps already.
Big club bias might yet thwart her if Jorge Vilda opts for Esther as his starting striker (while there's also the option of playing former Barcelona star Jenni Hermoso as a false nine), but the Real Madrid striker faltered badly towards the end of term, netting her last league goal in early March. Redondo scored nine after that.
And don't forget, with 77th-ranked Zambia among their Group C opponents, Spain could undoubtedly run up a healthy goal tally early on. At these odds, the Levante star is well worth backing.
Can Geyse win the Golden Boot?
Those who fancy pushing the boat out even further could do far worse than a punt on Geyse.
The Brazillian striker - whose name is pronounced like 'Jase', as you might call your pal named Jason, rather than like the rapper married to Beyonce, or other variations - was a standout star in Spain in 2021/22, when her joint-high 20 league goals more or less kept Madrid CFF in the division.
That return earned her a move to champions Barcelona, where she has tended to feature from the bench as understudy to one of the world's best strikers in Asisat Oshoala, but nevertheless netted 11 times across all competitions this term. That included two goals in two group games against a strong Bayern Munich side in Barca's victorious Champions League campaign, an event for which she saved her best form with a goal every 118 minutes.
Playing second fiddle can't have been easy for the 25-year-old, who had hit as many goals as Oshoala the season prior in a markedly weaker team, but she is clearly rated by national team coach Pia Sundhage and started in the Finalissima loss to England in April, as well as in the subsequent friendly wins against Germany and Chile, scoring in the latter.
Also deployable on the wing, she's sure to feature as the South American champions vie for Group F supremacy against France, and what's more, games against Jamaica and Panama could see her build up a decent head of steam early on.
Euro 2022 runners-up Germany are a potential opponent in the round of 16, a big obstacle to a deep run, but at 33/1 with numerous bookmakers, Geyse is worth a shout with your spare change.
Women's World Cup Golden Boot best bets
- 2pts Rachel Daly to win the Golden Boot at 10/1 (General)
- 1pt e.w. Alba Redondo to win the Golden Boot at 14/1 (General)
- 1pt e.w. Geyse to win the Golden Boot at 33/1 (General)
Odds correct at 1130 BST (13/07/23)
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