Golden Boot: Joe Townsend looks at the key contenders for top goalscorer honours

When Jamie Vardy put Leicester ahead at Manchester City on December 21, scoring his 17th goal in 18 top-flight games, he was 10/11 to win the Golden Boot.

He hasn’t scored since.

In his defence, he did miss a couple of games because of the birth of his daughter and then a niggling injury, but it is still a run of nine matches without a goal in all competitions – the former England striker’s longest drought for more than three years.

As you’d expect, Vardy has now drifted to third favourite at 7/2, but with Leicester’s next four matches against bottom-six sides Norwich, Aston Villa, Watford, and Brighton, this could be the moment he reignites his season. More importantly, after an improved performance against Manchester City this could be the time to back him.

Sergio Aguero missed the chance to join Vardy at the top of the charts when his penalty was saved by Kasper Schmeichel in City’s narrow win at Leicester on Saturday. It was the third Premier League match in a row that he has failed to score in.

But prior to that, the Argentine had been in lethal form. Seven goals in four league games catapulted him into contention for the end-of-season prize. That was Aguero’s second goal-scoring streak of the campaign, having begun this term with eight goals in six matches; in between times it has been fairly barren by his own high standards.

His chances of clinching the Golden Boot must be hit by shifting priorities, with City out of the title race but in contention for the remaining three trophies. The Carabao Cup final means they won’t be in league action again until March 8, when they face Manchester United at Old Trafford, and subsequent fixtures against Burnley, Chelsea and Liverpool hardly look like opportunities for him to fill his boots.

And yet, Aguero is 5/2 favourite.

Hot on his heels at 3/1 is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who shared last season’s Golden Boot with Liverpool duo Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane. The Arsenal captain’s brace against Everton on Sunday took him on to 17 goals for the campaign, alongside Vardy.

His form has been superb since Mikel Arteta was appointed Gunners head coach and he appears to be thriving on the left side of a front three. Aubameyang has six goals in seven top-flight matches under the Spaniard – he missed three games through suspension.

But here’s the bad news – the moment to back him has probably been and gone. Only in early February was he 14/1 to again end the campaign as the Premier League’s top scorer. Interestingly the Gabon striker has netted just three times since then, but the comparative lack of goals from his competitors has contributed to the price change.

West Ham, Brighton, Southampton and Norwich – they are Arsenal’s next four opponents in the Premier League, so Aubameyang at 3/1 still looks good to me.

Mohamed Salah is looking to win the Golden Boot for a third successive season, which would be every campaign since he returned to the Premier League for a second spell.

His equaliser during Liverpool’s hard-fought win over West Ham took his top-flight tally to 15, just two off the pace with 11 games to play. What makes Salah stand out this season is the absence of a streak – he has consistently churned out goals, with his longest barren run just three league games. The Egyptian now has 69 goals in 98 league games for Liverpool.

Salah is still 4/1 to win the Golden Boot. The Reds still have six of the division’s current bottom eight left to play, and were they to go out of the Champions League to Atletico he'd potentially have fewer priorities than both Aubameyang and Aguero.

Danny Ings started the season as a rank 200/1 outsider and is now 16/1, which still feels like a big price given that he has scored the same number of goals as Salah.

The Southampton striker saw his odds cut following an incredible scoring streak of 13 goals in 16 games, but just one in his last five has seen them drift once more.

This season, he has scored on average every 125 Premier League minutes, with only Vardy (124) and the habitually substituted Aguero (74) more potent.

Saints’ next five opponents include strugglers West Ham, Newcastle, Norwich and Watford. I’ll say it again – Ings at 16/1 feels like a big price.

Completing the contenders is Liverpool’s Sadio Mane, who, like Aubamayang and Salah, is looking to retain the Golden Boot he shared last season.

He’s a little behind on 13 goals, so no wonder he was so frustrated first by a VAR offside decision that denied him a second in the win over West Ham, and then by the decision of manager Jurgen Klopp to replace him with centre-back Joel Matip in the closing stages.

Mane joins Ings at 16/1 in the betting and is tempting enough. That being said, overhauling Aguero, Aubamayang, Salah, and Ings – the injured Marcus Rashford is also in front of him on 14 goals – just seems like too much to ask.

Joe Townsend's verdict

For Aubameyang to be 3/1 when he is currently the Premier League’s joint-top scorer, the division’s in-form striker and is defending the Golden Boot he shared with Salah and Mane last season just seems too big a price with only 11 games to play.

Salah at 4/1, when he has taken the prize for the last two seasons and is only two goals adrift, seems the best alternative, and those two are preferred to Vardy and Aguero with marginal preference for the Arsenal man.

Of the outsiders, Ings is considered better value than Mane - his goals-per-minute return suggests he could yet spring a surprise.