West Ham have lost more Premier League games against Arsenal than anyone else, and Paul Higham feels that run will get worse on Saturday.
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1pt Arsenal win & both teams to score at 12/5
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West Ham v Arsenal (1230 GMT Sky Sports Premier League)
This one could get us off to a flying start on Saturday as there's more than a sniff of goals surrounding a game with two sides loaded with plenty of attacking quality but little interest or ability in defence.
These two hapless rearguards have shipped 63 goals in 42 games between them in the Premier League and it's more recently when the damage has been done - with Arsenal having let in 11 in their last four away games.
West Ham have been just as bad at home, conceding in their last eight games on the bounce at the London Stadium and allowing two goals in the last three consecutively - hence why it's around 4/9 for both BTTS and over 2.5 goals for this one.
Arsenal's recent woes on the road may look to give West Ham a great chance here but there are a few warning signs around that one for me. Firstly, they folded tamely over Christmas when apparently the games came too quick and fast for them.
Then there's Arsenal's dominance of this particular fixture (just one defeat in 21) and perhaps most importantly the fact that their home win against Mourinho's Man Utd is their only victory against a team in the top half of the table.
In fact, six of their eight wins have come against teams currently occupying the bottom seven places in the table - in short, West Ham have taken care of sides they should but there's still an inferiority complex about the bigger sides that makes a win on Saturday that bit more unlikely.
Betting guide
Prediction: West Ham 1-3 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
For the final reasons stated above, plus the possible unrest caused by Marko Arnautovic's future being uncertain has me leaning towards a Gunners win. As mentioned, West Ham have beaten just Man Utd of note and that big scalp will elude them once again here.
Best bet: Arsenal win & both teams to score at 12/5
Backing Arsenal at a shade of odds against is a decent enough play here, but with the overwhelming case for both teams finding the net it's hard not to look for that bit extra return and under the circumstances both teams scoring is an entirely sensible road to go down.
Goals: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang anytime at 21/20
There's no sneaky plays, not unearthing any gems here but just putting it in writing that it's OK even in the goal scoring market to go for a short one. The Gabon man is joint top scorer in the Premier League, was rested for the FA Cup, has six goals in 10 away games and plays against a side with one clean sheet all season - you do the maths...
RequestABet: Arsenal win, over 3.5 goals, 20+ booking points each team, Aubameyang to score at 12/1
West Ham United v Arsenal Opta stats
- West Ham United have won one of their last 21 Premier League matches against Arsenal (D4 L16), a 2-0 win at the Emirates in August 2015.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in 11 away matches at West Ham in all competitions (W8 D3) since losing 0-1 in the Premier League in November 2006.
- West Ham have lost more Premier League games against Arsenal (29) than they have against any other side.
- 15 of the last 17 goals scored in Premier League matches between West Ham and Arsenal have been scored in the second half.
- West Ham have conceded at least once in their last eight home Premier League games, their longest run without a clean sheet in the top-flight since a run of 12 between April and December 2009.
- Arsenal haven’t failed to score in a Premier League game since the opening game of the season against Man City (0-2), netting in their last 20 matches in the competition.
- Arsenal are looking to win three consecutive Premier League London derbies for the first time since March 2015, the third win of which came against West Ham.
- Arsenal manager Unai Emery has never won away from home against Manuel Pellegrini in all competitions during his managerial career (P6 W0 D2 L4).
- Andy Carroll has scored four times in his last two home Premier League appearances for West Ham United against Arsenal, scoring a hat-trick in April 2016 at Upton Park and a consolation goal in a 1-5 defeat at London Stadium in December 2016.
- Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored in each of his last four Premier League London derby matches, netting six goals in total while also providing two assists.
