Saturday's evening clash comes from Carrow Road as struggling Norwich welcome runaway leaders Liverpool. George Pitts looks at the betting.
Recommended bets
2pts Over 3.5 total goals at 11/8
0.5pt Sadio Mane to score a header at 17/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Norwich v Liverpool
- 1730 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports
It is strange saying this when we are just halfway through February, but after the mid-season break Liverpool are now on the final straight in their quest for their first Premier League title.
Just six more wins. That is all Jurgen Klopp's side need - and that is on the basis that Man City do not drop any more points.
The last time these two met was the opening game of the campaign and an awful lot has happened since. European champions Liverpool were up against newly-promoted Norwich, with plenty of reasons to be confident of securing survival in the season ahead.
Despite losing 4-1, Daniel Farke's side did show a lot of promise and got the credit they deserved for a brave performance on Merseyside. That counts for nothing now when they sit bottom and seven points from safety.
A win in their last Carrow Road outing against Bournemouth gave them hope, but it was their only league victory in 12 and that is just not good enough.
A glimmer of hope for them here is with their valiant displays against Tottenham and Arsenal (and a narrow loss to Chelsea) on home soil, as well as that shock 3-2 win over Man City in September.
But history shows Norwich v Liverpool regularly produces goals. It was 4-1 at Anfield in the reverse fixture, the last meeting in Norfolk was 4-5 (remember when Klopp broke his glasses celebrating their winner?), there was also that spell where Luis Suarez loved coming up against Norwich. In 13/14 Liverpool won the fixtures 2-3 and 5-1, in 12/13 they won 5-0 and 5-2 and in 11/12 won 3-0, again in Norwich.
Granted, this is a far different team but football has strange ways of history repeating itself. There was a temptation to back the visitors to score four or more at 11/4, but there is value in the overs market.
With these margins in mind, and Norwich's home fixtures against the big guns, backing over 3.5 goals at 11/8 is incredibly appealing. Over 4.5 at 10/3 is tempting, but the former is preferred. This one even plays into the hands of a 1-3 scoreline.
With Liverpool well rested, it is expected they will be fresh rather than sluggish and hopefully that will translate into a goal-fest in Norfolk.
In addition to this thinking, a nice one to consider for a small play in the goalscorer markets is on Sadio Mane to find the back of the net with a header.
The Senegal forward may be just 5ft 8in but he has attempted more headed shots than any other Liverpool player this season. He has 17 - the next best is, you guessed it, Virgil van Dijk with 11 - and he averages nearly one per game in the league.
He has a knack of making late runs at the far post and being in and around the action in the six-yard box to get any loose balls, often with his head.
Mane often scored with this method last season and at 17/2 to get a headed goal here, it is a nice price on someone who is pretty short in the anytime market - providing he starts after injury last month.
Prediction: Norwich 1-4 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Best bets:
Key stats
- After winning two of their first four Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D1 L1), Norwich are now winless in their last 13 against them in the top-flight (D2 L11).
- Liverpool have won each of their last six Premier League away games against Norwich, scoring 20 goals in the process and at least twice each time.
- Of the 359 fixtures to have been played more than 10 times in the Premier League, Norwich vs Liverpool has the highest goals-per-game average (68 goals in 17 games, 4-per-game).
- Norwich have lost 11 of their last 12 Premier League games against the side starting the day top of the table, with their only victory in that run coming against Manchester United in November 2012 (1-0).
- Liverpool have opened the scoring in each of their last 13 Premier League meetings with Norwich – in the history of the competition, only Chelsea against Portsmouth (14) have scored the first goal in more consecutive games versus an opponent.
- Liverpool have won 33 of their last 34 Premier League games, winning each of the last 16 in a row, and keeping a clean sheet in nine of their last 10. The Reds have won as many points in 2020 as Norwich have all season so far (18).
- Bottom placed Norwich are 55 points behind leaders Liverpool. This is the 13th different Premier League match in which a side has been 55+ points behind their own opponents, and the first to have taken place as early as February.
- Since joining Liverpool in 2017-18, Mohamed Salah has scored 24 winning goals in the Premier League, at least six more than any other player. The Egyptian has also scored a league-high seven winners in the competition this season.
- Liverpool keeper Alisson is conceding on average one goal every 244 minutes in the Premier League this season – it’s the best ratio of any goalkeeper in a single season in the competition (minimum 10 games played).
- All eight of Liverpool forward Roberto Firmino’s Premier League goals this season have come away from home. In a full season in the competition, the record for most goals without scoring at home is seven (Ryan Giggs in 2001-02).
Odds via Sky Bet and correct as of 1400 GMT on 13/02/20
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