Friday night football comes from the German capital as Hertha welcome local rivals Union. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bet.
Recommended bets
1pt Over 3.5 goals in the game at 5/2
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Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin (1930 BST, BT Sport)
Matchday 27 begins with the Berlin derby as Hertha welcome Union for the second time this season.
Union secured victory in the first top-flight Berlin derby in over 40 years as Sebastian Polter's late penalty proved to be the difference back in November. It was a deserved win for the hosts that day as Hertha failed to offer a real threat across the 90 minutes.
Hertha have changed managers not once but twice since that game in a managerial policy that would give Watford a run for their money. Ante Covic was sacked before Jurgen Klinsmann resigned. Bruno Labbadia is the current man at the helm and he started his spell in perfect fashion with a 3-0 win away at Hoffenheim.
That was a scoreline that certainly flattered Hertha. Hoffenheim failed to convert numerous good chances to score, leaving them with an xG of 3.03 and nothing to show for it. It was hardly an outcome that was fair to the flow of the game.
An exceptional goal from Hertha Berlin’s Matheus Cunha!pic.twitter.com/I7gDpVEFNX
— Tom Carnduff (@TomC_22) May 16, 2020
Matheus Cunha's goal was the pick of the bunch as he went the long way around to beat a defender before converting from a tight angle. It left us in awe but the fact that the chance carried an xG rating of around 0.1 further demonstrates that a player should not really be scoring from there.
That's not to say that Hertha didn't create chances of their own but more that, defensively, they could count themselves lucky that Hoffenheim didn't end up outscoring them.
The good news with the decision to put Hertha in a main televised slot is that, despite the change of coach, their games usually bring goals. The 0-0 draw with Schalke in January was the only time a fixture has dropped below returning over 2.5 goals this side of the winter break.
For Union, they've hit the same mark on six of the nine games from January onwards. A further look into those contests that failed to bring more shows how they were somewhat false scorelines.
The wasteful nature of Augsburg and Werder Bremen in their games against Union left them empty-handed when they should have had at least one goal on the board. Florian Niederlechner and Alfred Finnbogason failing to combine for a goal for the former in the closing exchanges of that contest provides the perfect example.
It'll be intriguing to see if Union opt to bring Sebastian Andersson, their top goalscorer, back into the starting line-up after electing to try and utilise him from the bench in their defeat to Bayern.
The Swedish striker is known for that presence in the air and his absence from the XI indicated that Union were perhaps aiming to hit the current champions on the counter. Instead, without Andersson leading the line, they spent the first 20 minutes of the game aimlessly launching the ball forward to a target that wasn't there.
You'd fancy this to be a fixture that should see him involved from the start. Union need to try and bring a halt to this three-game losing streak and will be hopeful that Andersson will find himself among the goals once again. This is also a Hertha side who should have conceded more from the set-pieces they have faced. That will give Union's main threat further hope of striking.
Trying to predict the way this game will go, factoring in the sheer unpredictable nature of Hertha this season, does make the outright market a difficult one to conquer. The Asian Handicap giving the home side a slight -0.25 edge reflects that.
Sitting on the fence and settling for the draw is the best route forward when searching for a result. Taking the value in the goals market, and the 5/2 best price that over 3.5 provides, is where the best bet can be found in this contest.
Score prediction: Hertha Berlin 2-2 Union Berlin (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Over 3.5 goals in the game at 5/2
Odds correct at 1700 BST (20/05/20)
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