Fulham take on West Ham in Saturday's evening kick-off and Tom Carnduff is backing the Hammers to continue their great season so far.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt West Ham to win and over 2.5 goals in the match at 5/2
1pt Jesse Lingard to score anytime at 17/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Fulham v West Ham
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 5/2 | Draw 5/2 | Away 21/20
This game and the Premier League schedule gives West Ham a huge opportunity to move into the top-four with victory. Given Liverpool's clash with Manchester City on Sunday, there is a real chance that the Hammers will be sat above the Reds beyond the halfway stage of the season.
There was some hope for Fulham's survival chances given positive performances over December and January but the worry now is that they have left themselves with too much to do at this stage, even with the arrival of a striker in the form of Josh Maja on deadline day.
Scott Parker's men are eight points adrift of safety, although they do hold a game in-hand over a Newcastle side who are struggling to win as well. Fulham sit bottom of the form charts across the last five in the Premier League, West Ham are second, and the odds-against value on an away win looks great value.
Only Manchester City have taken more points than David Moyes' men over this period and the Hammers stand on a run of seven wins in their last eight outings in all competitions. Fulham haven't won in 90 minutes since a 2-1 success over Leicester at the end of November.
Scoring has been an issue for this Fulham team but they will be hopeful of grabbing at least one. The 17 goals scored is much lower than the 25 figure in the Expected Goals column and Maja's arrival will hopefully try to address that. They should have had one in that loss to Leicester last time out.
West Ham's general price of 21/20 would be well worth inclusion in accumulators if it was a 3pm kick-off, although the price is there to more than double your money. However, it's worth taking that win to come with over 2.5 goals in the game at a price of 5/2.
Each of the Hammers' last five in all competitions has seen the overs of the 2.5 goals line hit, while we can say the same for three of Fulham's last five. Only Leeds have seen more away games have over 2.5 goals than West Ham this season (8 from 11).
Elsewhere, Jesse Lingard was into the team and straight onto the scoresheet with a debut to remember against Aston Villa. He netted twice and his price on a goal is worth backing here. It's 17/4 that he adds another to his tally with 4/1 available across the board.
We are, of course, dealing with a small sample size here and that must be remembered but his numbers in a difficult away game in midweek were more than impressive. Lingard had six shots, three of which were on target and two that found the back of the net.
He left that game with an xG figure of 0.37. Once again, we only have the one game to work with here but a continued rate like that would put him among some of the leading forwards in the Premier League. Son Heung-min averages 0.38 per game, Wilfried Zaha is on 0.37 and Danny Ings is 0.34. Marcus Rashford, at Lingard's parent club Manchester United, is on 0.25.
If he can continue at that rate, not necessarily looking at goals but the opportunities to score, he will enjoy a prolific half-season under Moyes' guidance. It's worth taking those odds on Lingard netting here because of the huge value on offer, in a game where the Hammers can come out on top.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Fulham v West Ham best bets
Odds correct at 1800 GMT (04/02/21)
Opta facts
- Fulham have lost their last three Premier League games against West Ham, last losing four in a row between January 2008 and January 2009.
- West Ham have only won more Premier League games against Southampton (18) and Spurs (15) than they have against Fulham (14), despite facing them just 23 times. Their 61% win ratio against the Cottagers is their best against a team they’ve faced 5+ times in the Premier League.
- Fulham are winless in their last 19 Premier League London derbies (D2 L17), with only Crystal Palace having a longer such run in English top-flight history (31 between August 1969 and March 1973). The Cottagers have also conceded in each of their last 28 London derbies in the Premier League.
- Fulham have won only two of their 21 Premier League games this season – before this season, 13 of the 15 previous Premier League sides to win two games or fewer after 21 were relegated at the end of the season, although one of the sides to survive were Fulham in 2007-08.
- West Ham have won three consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since December 2018. The Hammers are looking to win four away matches in a row in the competition for the first time since September 2007 under Alan Curbishley.
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