Two in-form teams go head-to-head on Saturday evening, with Fulham welcoming Everton. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bet.
Fulham have been a fun follow this season, and their attack-minded approach has led to positive results.
The Cottagers are sat in a lofty seventh position through 12 matches, winning five of those, three at home.
I have been a big fan of Marco Silva for a long time, even since he was unfairly sacked by Everton - the team he welcomes this weekend - when the underlying numbers had the Toffees seventh despite sitting in the bottom three.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
The job he is doing at Fulham is remarkable, and they are a formidable team from an attacking perspective.
They have averaged 1.55 xGF per game this season which ranks ninth best in the league, while that average jumps to 1.79 when playing at home (eighth best).
So, with the approach unlikely to change, we can expect the Cottagers to create chances no matter who they are playing, it just so happens to be that this weekend they welcome an Everton team who are shipping opportunities for fun on their travels.
Frank Lampard's side are on an upward trajectory after a shaky start to his reign, but they continue to look vulnerable defensively when on the road, allowing 2.12 xGA per away game which ranks fifth worst.
The Toffees though are looking more proactive in attack themselves after a poor start from a chance creation perspective, which was undoubtedly not helped by key absentees in forward areas.
They look very good in last weeks 3-0 win over Crystal Palace (xG: EVE 1.65 - 0.80 CRY), and while being comfortably second best against Manchester United, Tottenham and Newcastle (three of the current top six), they generated 2.58 xGF away at Southampton in the game prior - a team closer to Fulham's level.
Add to this the fact that Fulham's defence is the worst in the league (2.11 xGA per game) due to their attack-minded nature, and we could see plenty of goals on Saturday, making the OVER 2.5 GOALS a standout bet.
Two vulnerable defences coming up against talented attacking units who created plenty of opportunities suggests this game should be open, and Fulham boast a 100% strike rate for the Overs at home this season, and 92% in general.
While Everton don't boast the highest percentage of Over 2.5 Goals, it is worth noting that their away games should have seen a lot more goals according to the quality of chances created. Their away games have averaged 2.17 goals, yet have witnessed an average of 3.50 xG.
Fulham v Everton best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Over 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (bet365, Vbet)
Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1145 BST (28/10/22)
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