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Fulham v Chelsea tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Fulham take on Chelsea in Thursday's solo Premier League clash and Tom Carnduff has found value in backing a home goalscorer.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Andreas Pereira to score anytime at 6/1 (General)
It would have been a brave prediction before a ball was kicked to claim that Fulham would be above Chelsea as we hit the halfway stage of the Premier League season.
Yet, with 18 games on their record, Marco Silva's men sit three points clear of the big-spending Blues - a club whose fanbase were vocal with their anger during Sunday's 4-0 thrashing by Manchester City.
This month will be dominated by rumours of potential incomings at Stamford Bridge, as attention turns from defence to attack with goals in short supply. The 20 on their tally puts them 12th in the 'Goals For' column.
It could be more misery on Thursday night. Fulham sitting 7th with a points tally matching the one they achieved across the entire dismal 2020/21 campaign shows how far the club has come - and recent performances have justified their position in the standings.
There was a slight element of fortune to Fulham's early season results when we analyse the numbers, but the second-half of their first-half (if that makes sense) has been one big positive.
Across the first nine, Fulham's expected goal difference (xGD) sat at -9.8. In their last nine, it's been +4.4. They've had the higher xG tally in six of their last nine; as opposed to two in the nine before it.
A big problem for them here though is that Aleksandar Mitrović is suspended. He picked up his fifth yellow of the season last time out, and the striker's presence, alongside his 11 goals in 15 outings this season, will be missed.
This makes it slightly tricky to fully commit to Fulham's 9/4 price for success. Chelsea's confidence will be incredibly low, but there is also the need for desperate improvement.
Interesting one...
— Tom Carnduff (@TomC_22) January 3, 2023
Fulham - first nine games:
• Goals: 14
• xG: 11.0
• Conceded: 18
• xGA: 20.8
Fulham - last nine games:
• Goals: 16 ⬆
• xG: 18.4 ⬆
• Conceded: 9 ⬇️
• xGA: 14.0 ⬇️
Higher xG total in six of the last nine, as opposed to two of the first nine.#FFC pic.twitter.com/xa70slcLkj
Instead, we can capitalise on Mitrović's absence by focusing on another Fulham player, and taking the 6/1 price on ANDREAS PEREIRA TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The attacking midfielder has two goals on his tally, but the 3.23 xG created from his 25 total shots highlights that it could, and probably should, have been more.
He's also posted four assists - that coming from 3.55 xA - establishing himself as a key part of this side and a major reason as to why they're currently in their lofty position in the table.
A big thing here is that, without Mitrović, Pereira is likely to be the designated penalty taker for the home side. Chelsea are yet to concede from a spot kick in the Premier League this season, but no side scoring more than Fulham from this situation highlights their ability to win them.
They've also been awarded six across the campaign - again, that is a division-high.
We can hold enough confidence that Pereira will get opportunities to strike from open play anyway, but 6/1 on a major figure in attack who will also likely have penalty duties is too big to turn down.
I'd lean towards backing Fulham for victory here but in terms of outright stakes, the lack of Mitrović in the forward line does make me slightly hesitant. Silva's silver lining is that there are plenty of options who can step up instead - PEREIRA is definitely one of them.
Fulham v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Andreas Pereira to score anytime at 6/1 (General)
Score prediction: Fulham 1-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1150 GMT (09/01/23)
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