The Sky Bet Championship's top two meet in a mouthwatering Friday night affair. Michael Beardmore has a preview and best bets for Bournemouth's trip to leaders Fulham.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Draw at 11/4 (Mansion Bet)
1pt Aleksandar Mitrovic 1+ left-footed shots on target at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Philip Billing 1+ right-footed shots on target at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
By their own high standards, the past couple of weeks have been a bit of a blip for the Sky Bet Championship’s top two ahead of Friday night’s clash between Fulham and Bournemouth.
Fulham have dropped points in draws with lowly pair Derby and Preston, but remain top by a point because the Cherries followed up a shock loss to the Rams with draws against Millwall and Coventry.
But Infogol’s expected goals (xG) metrics suggest these two sides – along with fourth-placed West Bromwich Albion – are comfortably the best in the division. Indeed, Luton are the only other team with a positive xGD in double figures.
At least one, if not both, will achieve automatic promotion to the Premier League – but the question is: which side, if either, will get over their blip on Friday?
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Fulham 17/20 | Draw 13/5 | Bournemouth 3/1
It’s a tricky game to analyse – with Fulham keeping top spot by avoiding defeat and Bournemouth protecting a seven-point advantage over third-placed QPR, it could well be a game both are keen not to lose, rather than win.
But while a cagey encounter would hardly be a surprise in the circumstances, we also have to acknowledge that we are dealing with sides that have scored 49 and 36 goals respectively thus far, the division's top scoring outfits.
Nonetheless, so evenly matched are the teams – and so high is the importance of not losing this one, as opposed to winning it – that the DRAW looks overpriced at 11/4 with Mansion Bet.
It’s a result that would likely suit both sides with neither likely to push the boat out in the knowledge there will be easier days to come.
The match features two of the Championship’s three leading scorers in the shape of Aleksandar Mitrovic and Dominic Solanke, with 35 (20-15) league goals between them.
Both are incredibly short in the scoring markets as a result and, if this is as tight as the stats indicate it will be, it makes more sense to look at the shots markets.
Even there, it’s tough to find value on Fulham’s Serbian striker, so hot has his form been, but I think the 9/4 on MITROVIC TO HAVE 1+ LEFT-FOOTED SHOTS ON TARGET is appealing.
Mitrovic is averaging one left-footed shot per game this season, with several efforts on target and two goals via that boot. While predominately right-footed, he’s the sort of predator who will take a snapshot on with either foot.
On the Cherries front, I think you’ll find more value in Philip Billing in the final third than Solanke, with the Bournemouth midfielder enjoying a real breakthrough season in an attacking sense.
After only 18 games, Billing has registered more shots (35) than he did in the entire 2020-21 (34) and 2019-20 (33) campaigns and has found the net seven times too.
Again, though, while left-footed for the most part, he can use his other peg – four right-footed efforts on target this term, including two goals with his less favoured leg, proof of that.
That makes the 9/1 Sky Bet offer on BILLING TO HAVE 1+ RIGHT-FOOTED SHOTS ON TARGET a standout price, given he’s had four in 18 games. It’s a long shot but worth a small play at the price given he's only 6/4 for one with his left peg, with which he's had 10 on-target efforts.
Fulham v Bournemouth score prediction and best bets
- Draw at 11/4 (Mansion Bet)
- Aleksandar Mitrovic 1+ left-footed shots on target at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
- Philip Billing 1+ right-footed shots on target at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1545 GMT (01/12/21)
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