Teams think they have the volatile nature of the 24/25 Premier League season figured out before a couple of losses catch them by surprise.
- Published prior to Palace's win at Fulham
There were murmurs of a title race for Chelsea yet they’ve only won two of the last six games. Newcastle's form had propelled them up the table but they’ve lost three of their last four in the league.
If you can keep a semblance of consistency and solid form in this season out of them all, you’re more than on the right path. Which brings us to Crystal Palace, who may well have been beaten by Everton last time out but find themselves enjoying life under Oliver Glasner again.
After winning just one of their first 11 games of the season, he's turned Palace’s form around, with the club now a far more comfortable 13 points clear of the relegation zone.
And it's been fascinating to see how it's unfolded at Selhurst Park.
A change out of possession
One of the aspects for Palace which wasn’t working at all previously was a two-man midfield and committing three men up top in the press in Ismaila Sarr, Eberechi Eze and Jean-Philippe Mateta.
The set-up left far too many gaps for teams to exploit on either side of those in central midfield.
Having a pivot and three forwards pressing is far too brave in the modern age - it left so much space in a key area of the pitch.,
The positive, at least, is that Glasner wasn't afraid to make the adjustment.
The shift has been to a more compact four in the middle, and instead of Eze and Sarr pressing, they have pushed back to form a 5-4-1 mid block.
What this means is that it compacts the centre of the pitch more so than previously, but crucially, even if the opponent finds gaps in between that midfield, it isn’t that far away from the defensive line.
Surrounding the opposition’s central midfielders allows Palace to limit the pass into them, but a variation that we’ve seen Glasner use is pushing up one of the centre-backs on a forward when they drop to try be an option to pass into.
When Trevor Chalobah pushes up to a forward in the half-space it means the pass into him would be risky.
Just by pushing the wingers further back, Glasner has made Palace a much more compact team.
A direct approach
Playing a back-five provides Palace with interesting solutions in the build-up because teams will press five defenders at the back alongside the two-man pivot.
Noticeably, a pattern I’ve seen them use week in, week out has been one where they suck players into the press in their own half before going direct to Mateta.
It can’t be understated how crucial the Frenchman is to Palace being a threat. Not only does he score goals, but the manner in which they fashion chances is because of him.
Teams normally try and press with a full-back pushed up wide, the forwards pressing and central midfielders tracking Palace’s pivot (Will Hughes and Jefferson Lerma).
As this happens, Palace capitalise on the players who have committed to the press by going long to find Mateta.
The former Mainz forward is brilliant at holding the ball up and using his strength to force a centre-back wide or drag them in his own half.
As Mateta, Sarr and Eze advance forward to exploit the space in behind they’re joined by Daniel Munoz who has been braver in recent games, either flooding the box to be an extra attacker or pushing up high in the press to win the ball.
Teams tend to leave multiple attackers in one zone committed on one area of the pitch.
When the ball drops loose, the Palace centre-back, be it on the left or right, wastes no time in aiming for Mateta or one of the quicker forwards previously mentioned to break up the pitch.
The front three, and someone like Eddie Nketiah when he comes on, are good at running in behind defences or making the ball stick from a longer pass forward.
Palace rely on three players to form many of the attacks.
But they’re more threatening because the ball released to them is quick and they have space to exploit as many of their opponents have left players up the pitch in attempts to press Palace in defence.
Steve Parish has been brave with his appointments before, electing for Patrick Vieira after Roy Hodgson had kept Palace up, before going back to Hodgson in a time of need when Vieira’s appointment hadn’t worked.
For a long time under previous management, it looked as if the writing was on the wall but many of the tactics remained the same.
Under Glasner, it’s encouraging to see that the former Eintracht Frankfurt man has addressed the glaring holes in Palace’s system.
The tweaks have transformed the South London club into a solid team with a dangerously underrated counter-attack.
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