With 6/1, 9/1 and 11/1 winners among others in 2019 already, Tom Carnduff picks out three best bets for Friday night's game.
Recommended bets
1pt Onel Hernandez to score anytime at 16/5
1pt Alexander Tettey to score anytime at 15/2
1pt Teemu Pukki 5+ shots and Lukas Jutkiewicz 3+ shots at 7/1
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Norwich v Birmingham (Carrow Road, 1945 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event)
Norwich can return to the top-two of the Sky Bet Championship table with at least a point on Friday night against Birmingham.
Both sides will be eager for victory though given that they are without a win in both of their last four in all competitions. That form has been more damaging to Norwich though as a gap to Leeds has started to appear.
One player that the Canaries will be hoping can be the difference in this one is Onel Hernandez. The winger has four goals and seven assists in 21 league games, a good return, but it could have been more.
Hernandez sits in the top-five for shots taken in this Norwich side and is a key element of the influential attacking midfield trio behind the prolific Teemu Pukki.
Understandably, Pukki is a general price of 5/4 for a goal here. That's why the value is there by looking elsewhere in the home side.
A price on the better side of 3/1 is worth taking on a player who has established himself as a starter in recent weeks. He has played the full 90 minutes in the past three games, while also contributing two goals in the 27 minutes on the pitch in a 3-3 draw with Nottingham Forest.
Elsewhere, Alexander Tettey is worth a consideration for a goal anytime given how the statistics suggest that he should have had more on his tally up to this point.
The midfielder has started all-but-two Championship games this season and has captained the side for the large majority of that time.
He has one goal so far, but he sits third in the charts for shots taken for Norwich. His 35 attempts on goal after only bettered by Teemu Pukki and Marco Stierpermann.
With that amount, it's clear that he has little issue with confidence in trying to find the net. With a general price of 15/2, I'd be willing to back the midfielder to add his second of the season based on the statistics.
On the topic of statistics, Norwich playing at home should signal plenty of shots on goal. The Canaries have averaged near 15 shots per game, while Birmingham do see a high shots against tally away at the top teams.
Leeds managed 17 shots in their clash at Elland Road in September, while Derby managed 18. Of that combined 35, 15 were on target and Norwich will want to have a high tally in front of their own supporters.
Pukki is a player to back in the statistics market given the sheer number of shots that he has taken. This game will also see him come up against Lukas Jutkiewicz who sits sixth for shots taken in the Championship.
My concern is the fact that the balance of play should see Norwich significantly see more chances and combining both of the above players for a high shots count gives very attractive odds.
Jutkiewicz has only had two games this season where he hasn't had a shot. The Boxing Day victory over Stoke saw six, while their last two games over Sheffield Wednesday and Middlesbrough had three in each.
He had at least four shots on goal in games against Swansea, Ipswich, Stoke, Hull and Preston as well - which isn't a huge surprise considering he has ten goals on his tally.
We're going to have a safety net by putting the Birmingham striker to have three or more in this game, and combining it with five or more for Pukki gives an interesting price of 7/1.
Pukki has had at least five shots in games against Derby, Nottingham Forest, Swansea and Millwall since the start of November and I'd be willing to gamble on him hitting the same amount in this game.
Score prediction: Norwich 2-2 Birmingham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Best bets:
Opta facts
- Norwich are unbeaten in six home league matches against Birmingham (W4 D2 L0) since losing 0-1 in March 2002 – which was the last time these sides met on a Friday.
- Including play-offs, Birmingham have won just one of their last 14 league matches against Norwich (D7 L6).
- Norwich have lost six of their last seven Championship games played on Friday (W1), losing all three under current manager Daniel Farke.
- Birmingham are winless in their last three Championship games (D2 L1); they have not gone on a longer such run since starting the 2018-19 league campaign with no wins from their opening eight fixtures.
- Norwich have scored 16 league goals in the final 10 minutes of games this season – four more than any other side in the top four tiers of English football.
- Birmingham striker Lukas Jutkiewicz has scored 10 goals and made nine assists in the Championship this season – the last player to achieve double figures for both goals and assists for the club in a league season was Chris Burke in 2011-12.
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (16/01/19)
