England have to be opposed against Germany, says our tipster Andy Schooler, who also fears for Wales in France.
England v Germany (2000 GMT, ITV)
Let’s cut to the chase. Germany have to be worth a bet at any odds-against quote.
Not for the first time in the November international window, England have been hard hit by injury pull-outs with the list at time of writing being Harry Kane, Dele Alli (pictured above), Jordan Henderson, Raheem Sterling, Harry Winks and Fabian Delph.
And that’s before you take into account those who were not fit enough to make the original squad announcement such as Adam Lallana, or those doubtful but yet to be ruled out like Gary Cahill.
England are hardly blessed with strength in depth these days, as this article on football365.com points out, and so replacements which include Jake Livermore and Jack Cork only set the pulse racing for the wrong reasons.
Playing the world champions, a team currently favourites to retain the World Cup in Russia next summer, is therefore hardly ideal for Gareth Southgate and co.
Yes, the Germans do have their own injury issues – Thomas Muller, Marco Reus and regular left-back Jonas Hector all miss out here – but then again the players they’ve been able to bring into the fold include World Cup winner Mario Gotze and Manchester City’s Ilkay Gundogan. England they are not.
A look at their World Cup qualifying campaign helps prove what the hosts will be up against – 10 games, 10 wins, 43 goals scored. And those 43 goals were scored by 21 different players. There’s squad depth for you.
OK, this remains a friendly but England v Germany clashes are usually pretty competitive whatever the situation and it should also be remembered the World Cup is now just seven months away.
Germany seem highly unlikely to be fielding an entirely second-string team but even if they do, it’s worth taking a quick look back at last summer when a virtual reserve side won the Confederations Cup.
It’s not a particularly original bet – and certainly not one for those who like a patriotic punt – but backing Germany really should reap rewards.
France v Wales (2000 GMT, BBC One Wales)
At the risk of repeating myself, there looks to be a gulf in class in this one.
France could send two very good squads to the World Cup, were they allowed to, and both would be competitive. Wales, on the other hand, have failed to get their first-choice men to Russia.
Gareth Bale missed last month’s crucial showdown with the Republic of Ireland which they lost 1-0 in Cardiff to dash their World Cup qualification hopes. He’s absent again for this friendly, as are Hal Robson-Kanu and Jonny Williams.
The reality of Welsh football is that when some of their leading names withdraw, Chris Coleman has to turn to clubs like Barnsley to call up Ryan Hedges and Lloyd Isgrove.
Against opponents who are challenging for World Cup favouritism, that isn’t going to cut it.
France won one of the toughest European qualifying groups, losing only once (in the last minute) as they saw off Sweden and the Netherlands to reach the finals.
Some will point out they failed to beat Luxembourg at home but they was very much the exception rather than the rule. Other home games were all won, including a 4-0 thrashing of the Netherlands and a 4-1 beating of Bulgaria.
Meanwhile, Wales were struggling to win games in their group which was littered with draws and unconvincing displays. They offered little in that must-win clash with the Irish a month ago and frankly, across the 13 months, they didn’t deserve to progress.
It would be no surprise were there to be something of a hangover from that game, particularly with manager Chris Coleman’s future still shrouded in doubt. If he is genuinely pondering a future in the Premier League, then you wonder whether he’ll be fully focused at this early stage for a Euro 2020 qualifying campaign which doesn’t begin until March 2019.
France, on the other hand, are now preparing for a World Cup title tilt. And such is their squad depth that anyone getting a chance in a friendly will know they need to make an impression if they want to stay in the team or even the squad.
If I were a Welsh fan, the thought of Kylian Mbappe, Alexandre Lacazette and/or in-form Lyon striker Nabil Fekir running at the out-of-sorts Ashley Williams and co would concern me and that’s before you take into account, for example, Olivier Giroud’s excellent goalscoring record at international level.
Whoever France pick, they should be more than good enough to beat this Wales team, for whom a Euro 2016 semi-final must seem a long time ago.
France are tempting at 12/5 giving up a two-goal start but I won’t be greedy and will instead back them off the -1 mark at 17/20 which seems perfectly fair.
Sweden v Italy (1945 GMT, Sky Sports Football & Main Event)
Admittedly punting on friendlies isn’t everyone’s game and can often be a dangerous one too.
It’s therefore something of a relief to see what promises to be a really competitive World Cup play-off taking place on Friday – and it’s live on Sky Sports too.
I wouldn’t put anyone off watching this one instead of the Home Nations’ friendlies, while in betting terms there looks to be a decent chance of an underdog success.
Sweden finished second to France in their qualifying group, the duo putting out the Netherlands, who could only finish third.
The Swedes were particularly strong at home, winning four and drawing one of their five matches. The victories included one over France, while they smashed their way past Bulgaria (3-0), Belarus (4-0) and Luxembourg (8-0).
Clearly Italy are a better side than Belarus or Luxembourg but if Sweden can defeat France on home soil, they are more than capable of giving Italy a good game.
They will also know that with the return game to come in Milan on Monday, they could really do with a first-leg lead for their away record was disappointing at the group stage – they lost to the French, the Dutch and Bulgarians on their travels.
Italy, meanwhile, did what most had predicted in their group – finished second to Spain. That can be considered job done for this is not a vintage Italian team.
They scored just 21 goals in their 10 games with nine of those coming against whipping boys Liechtenstein.
They lack genuine stars right now and there has been plenty of criticism of the current crop in their homeland.
They will look to the in-form Ciro Immobile, a man often mentioned in our betting previews in the past, for goals. He’s bagged 18 in just 15 games for Lazio this season and also bagged a winner for his country against Israel.
The Swedes’ defence, which will be minus Celtic’s Mikael Lustig due to suspension, will need to keep a close eye on him.
However, despite that undoubted threat, I’m still taken by the 5/2 on offer about a home win.
The Swedes look to be under-estimated here and I feel Italy will have to work hard in the second leg if they are going to ensure they do not miss out on the finals for the first time since 1958.
Recommended bets
3pts Germany to beat England at 29/25
2pts France (-1) to beat Wales at 17/20
2pts Sweden to beat Italy at 5/2
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Posted at 1640 GMT on 08/11/17.
