Andy Schooler previews women’s semi-finals day at the French Open and he’s backing Petra Kvitova to make her first Roland Garros final.
Recommended bets:
1pt Petra Kvitova to beat Sofia Kenin 2-0 at 11/8
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Iga Swiatek v Nadia Podoroska (1400 BST)
It’s fair to say few predicted these two players to still be around on semi-finals day. I certainly didn’t.
Both have enjoyed fairytale runs to the last four but there’s no doubt who the layers now expect to progress to Saturday’s final.
Swiatek is that player and is just 2/7 to win this contest. It’s hardly a surprise given the way she has demolished everything in front of her so far.
The highlight was a 6-1 6-2 victory over top seed and title favourite Simona Halep in round four and overall the Polish teenager has dropped just 20 games so far.
Her power has caused every opponent problems and it will be no different here, one suspects.
Podoroska, the first qualifier to reach the semi-finals of this tournament, has also been impressive though, particularly in the last round when she beat Elina Svitolina in straight sets.
She’s clearly a strong claycourter but key to her success over the past two-plus weeks has been her ability to get on the front foot and move into the court.
That aggressive strategy certainly reaped rewards against Svitolina.
The worry I have here surrounds how often she’ll get the chance to move up given the velocity some of the balls will be coming down at her.
If the Swiatek pattern continues, she’ll be pushed back – and wide – by the Pole’s hitting.
Swiatek looks to be in the groove right now – she’s also made it to the last four of the doubles – and I have to agree with the layers and make her a firm favourite.
Given the way she’s smashed her opponents, 4/6 about a straight-sets win doesn’t look too bad.
However, a warning sound always goes off in my head whenever players are competing in their first Grand Slam semi-final. It’s been particularly prevalent on the women’s side over the years.
The stakes here are a different level to anything which has gone before and I’ve seen on many an occasion a player wracked with nerves about what lies before them.
It could happen to Swiatek, although she does look mentally tough. If Podoroska unravels, the 4/6 will look huge.
The overall verdict is I’d much rather save my funds for the second semi-final, talking of which…
Sofia Kenin v Petra Kvitova (to follow)
In terms of experience, this contest is a world away from the semi-final which will precede it on Court Philippe Chatrier.
Both competitors in this match have Grand Slam titles to their name – Kenin is the reigning Australian Open champion, while Kvitova has twice lifted the famous Venus Rosewater Dish at Wimbledon.
Nerves should not be an issue.
Kvitova is the favourite at 8/15 having not dropped a set all tournament.
You know the Czech is playing well if that’s the case, as she has often been labelled P3tra on social media given the number of three-setters she plays.
Her three-set numbers help show how her game can go off for periods but that’s not happened too often at Roland Garros where the autumn rescheduling appears to have helped her.
With no hayfever issues to worry the asthma sufferer, she’s been able to concentrate on giving the ball a good thump off both her serve and the ground and she, like Swiatek, has shown an ability to hit through the sluggish court conditions.
Kenin beat Serena Williams in Paris last season and she’s backed that clay form up this time around to reach the last four.
It has been a circuitous route though – four of her five matches have gone the distance, this despite the fact she’s played no-one ranked higher than 49.
She was arguably a tad fortunate in the last round when Danielle Collins was clearly affected by an injury as Kenin took their deciding set 6-0.
This looks a big step up. Kvitova is the seventh seed and world number 11 and also a player who has won their two previous meetings.
The most recent came on clay, in 2019 in Madrid, when the Czech won 6-1 6-4.
Conditions will admittedly be much slower here but Kvitova can still do some damage with her lefty serve – she slammed down nine aces in Madrid and 12 in their Miami meeting of 2018.
It’s a shot which has served her well so far in Paris with even her second serve winning more than 50% of points in every round so far.
Kvitova looks to have the form and the weapons to win this contest and I’ll take her to win in straight sets at 11/8.
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