Ligue 1 was won by Lille last season, not PSG. Jake Osgathorpe is on hand to preview the upcoming campaign, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Ligue 1 outright
4pts Monaco to finish top three at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Reims to be relegated at 9/2 (William Hill)
There was a huge upset in last season’s Ligue 1, as Lille (David) slayed PSG (Goliath) to win the title.
The two were going head-to-head, blow-for-blow and stride-for-stride throughout most of the season, but a 1-0 Lille win at the Parc des Princes saw the pendulum swing in Les Dogues direction.
Lille, managed by Christophe Galtier, won the league without spending bucket-loads of money, and their victory was a refreshing change from the normal PSG stroll.
However, it really is hard to make a case for Les Parisiens not winning the title this season.
Who will win the Ligue 1 title?
After sacking Thomas Tuchel – who went onto win the Champions League with Chelsea – at the turn of the year, PSG decided to move in the direction of Mauricio Pochettino.
The Argentine, who was yet to win a major trophy in his managerial career before arriving in Paris, failed to deliver the league title last season despite PSG being just four points off top spot when he took over.
He has been given a second season in the French capital, and PSG have really pulled their finger out in the summer window, bringing in Italian Euro 2020 winner and Player of the Tournament Gianluigi Donnarumma, a centre-back in Sergio Ramos who has won everything there is to win in team football, along with Premier League and Champions League winner Georginio Wijnaldum – all on free transfers.
They have also paid a sizeable fee for one of the best attacking full-backs in Europe, with Achraf Hakimi joining from Serie A winners Inter Milan. It’s fair to say Poch has been backed.
Their squad is ridiculous, and if Neymar and Kylian Mbappe can keep fit for most of the Ligue 1 season, PSG should just prove too strong.
However, a best price of 1/5 is way too short given what happened last season, and considering the fact they have a manager at the helm who has never won a league title. They are extremely likely to win Ligue 1, but most of their focus is nearly always on the Champions League, which is another worry.
The other contenders are Lyon, Monaco, Lille and Marseille, with all four correctly priced as massive outsiders. It’s a no bet for me in the title market, or the ‘without PSG’ market. I’ll instead be focusing on who finishes in the top three.
Who will finish top three in Ligue 1?
PSG are 1/100 to finish in the top three with the bookies, so that leaves two places to fill.
We bet on the top three in France as it is those teams who qualify for the Champions League, with fourth and fifth qualifying for the Europa League and sixth for the Europa Conference League.
Last season’s race for third went to the wire, with Monaco pipping Lyon despite losing to OL in gameweek 35. But a lot has changed that needs to be discussed.
2021/22 Ligue 1 top three finish odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/100 - PSG
- 4/6 - Lyon
- 5/4 - Lille
- 11/8 - Monaco
- 9/2 - Marseille
- 13/2 - Nice, Rennes
Odds correct as of 1230 BST (03/08/21)
Let’s start with champions Lille. Many of you may be surprised to see them priced at odds-against to even finish in the top three, but there are a few reasons why they must be opposed this season.
Their manager has left, their underlying numbers suggested they were fortunate to finish in the top three, and their squad is likely to continue to be picked apart – such is their model.
Christophe Galtier, who masterminded their success last term, surprisingly moved on to manage Nice, who finished last season in mid-table.
He is widely regarded as one of the best coaches in France, and so his departure is a huge blow to Lille. They have appointed a manager in Jocelyn Gourvennec whose last job saw his side relegated from Ligue 1 in 2019.
Throw in the fact that they were incredibly fortunate based on expected goals to win the league, scoring nearly 19 more goals than would be expected (64 goals, 45.3 xGF) while racking up the fourth most expected points, and a season of regression is likely.
So far they have lost Boubakary Soumare (to Leicester) and goalkeeper Mike Maignan (to AC Milan), regular starters from last season, but that list is likely to grow.
All in all, they are a team to oppose this term, and I see it being unlikely that they even finish in the top three this season, despite their recent French Super Cup win over a second string PSG.
Lyon also have a new manager at the helm, with Peter Bosz replacing Rudi Garcia after Les Gones finished the season in fourth – outside of the Champions League places.
They were one of the most unfortunate teams in Ligue 1 last term, picking up the most expected points of any side, boasting an expected goal difference (xGD) of +36.4 that was only bettered by PSG (+37.6).
Process-wise, they were excellent. A new manager could have an effect on that, and the absence of star man and captain Memphis Depay, who joined Barcelona this summer, will hurt them.
They could be best watched early on in the season as they find their feet under Bosz and learn who their go-to man is without Depay around. Lyon should have enough to finish in the top three though.
Value comes in the shape of MONACO. Niko Kovac’s side were simply excellent last season, finishing on a run of 17 wins and two defeats from their last 23 matches.
They deservedly occupied one of the top three spots, and look set to do so again having retained the bulk of their squad and all of their starting XI.
From December 18th onwards, no team in Ligue 1 was better than Monaco last season according to the data, with Kovac’s side collecting the most expected points through those final 23 matches, while rivalling Lille for the best defensive process (0.68 xGA per game).
If they continue in that manner this season, and their underlying process remains consistent, they could well be PSG’s closest challengers.
So it is somewhat surprising to see MONACO TO FINISH IN THE TOP THREE available at 11/8 on Sky Bet, with Monaco actually fourth favourites behind champions Lille, who I have doubts about.
The Infogol model gives them a 57.5% chance of securing a Champions League berth, which gives implied odds of 3/4, so the 11/8 available looks huge.
Marseille, Nice and Rennes deserve a quick mention in this segment as all three have outside chances of finishing in the top three.
Two-time Copa America winning coach Jorge Sampaoli returns for another season in the dugout of Marseille, but his side were poor based on underlying numbers despite finishing the season strongly in fifth. Their xGD was just +0.7, the eighth best in Ligue 1.
Nice were a mid-table team last term but now have Galtier in charge. They have been busy in the transfer market, strengthening in key areas. It would take a huge effort for them to finish the season in the top three.
The same goes for Rennes, who did finish third in 2019/20. They have so far kept hold of their star talents while adding a few players, but they would need a sensational season under Bruno Genesio to go close to securing Champions League football.
Who will be relegated from Ligue 1?
Direct relegation from Ligue 1 is for those sides who finish in the bottom two, with third from bottom going into a relegation play-off with a Ligue 2 side.
So we are backing a team to finish in the bottom two with most bookmakers, and one side stands out at a decent price.
That side isn’t newly-promoted pair Clermont Foot or Troyes, the latter appear to have recruited very well, or Bordeaux who have had serious off-field issues, but REIMS.
After winning Ligue 2 in 2017/18, Reims went on to finish eighth and fifth in their subsequent Ligue 1 seasons, but struggled last season after seeing some better players leave.
The main issue they have had is that their football was so predictable. They played on fine margins, and they only go your way for a certain amount of time.
It started to catch up with them last season as they finished 14th, but they were fortunate not to be relegated according to Infogol’s xG model, posting the second fewest expected points and the second worst xG process (-25.4 xGD).
They have appointed a new manager in Oscar Garcia this summer, a journeyman. Sacked after 13 games in his last stint in France with St Etienne, Garcia lasted the same amount of time at Olympiakos before scraping Celta Vigo to safety in 2019/20 and being sacked a few games into the next season.
It’s a far from inspiring appointment, and he goes to work without Reims’ top scorer from last season, Boulaye Dia, who was sold to Villarreal and is yet to be replaced.
The squad is poor, the manager is unconvincing, and they performed like a team we would expect to see relegated last season, so REIMS TO BE RELEGATED looks like a decent bet.
We can back them to go down at 9/2 with William Hill, which does seem big, especially when the Infogol model has them priced closer to the 7/2 mark.
Ligue 1 2021/22: Outright best bets
- 4pts Monaco to finish top three at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
- 2.5pts Reims to be relegated at 9/2 (William Hill)
Odds correct at 12:15 BST (03/08/21)
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