Rangers take on Frankfurt in the final of the Europa League, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the contest, providing his best bets.
After success in the FA Cup final last weekend when siding with a low-scoring game, the same tactic appeals once again here, with the goal line higher than I expected.
Yes, both Frankfurt and Rangers have the capability in attack to score multiple times here, but the occasion, and the fact that so much is on the line, has me again leaning towards UNDER 2.5 GOALS IN 90 MINUTES as the headline selection.
Frankfurt are rightly favourites to lift the trophy, and are unbeaten in their 12 Europa League games this season (W7, D5), but backing against goals makes the most appeal at the prices.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport
The German side, who completely sacked off Bundesliga duties mid-season to focus solely on this competition, have shown an ability to manage games where necessary, and a steeliness to hang in when the going gets tough.
After all, they got past both Real Betis and Barcelona to get to the semi-finals, before easing to a 3-1 aggregate win over West Ham, but despite their xG process suggesting chances at either end has been the norm for the Germans (1.56 xGF, 1.44 xGA per game), only 50% of their UEL games have seen three or more goals.
In fact, three of their last five have seen Under 2.5 Goals, with the increasing pressure leading to fewer risks being taken.
That is always the case in finals, with no team or individual wanting to take too many risks and leave themselves exposed.
Rangers played in that manner in both of their first legs in the quarter and semi-finals, keeping things very tight on the road against Braga and RB Leipzig, with both games ending in 1-0 defeats.
They allowed just 0.35 and 1.35 xGA respectively in those games, highlighting their ability to limit chances very well.
That will likely be their approach here too, as the Gers have struggled away from Ibrox in this competition, winning one and losing five of seven, averaging 0.85 xGF per away game in the UEL.
This is obviously not at an away stadium given we are at a neutral venue, but it isn't Ibrox, the place van Bronckhorst's team have averaged an incredible 2.49 xGF per game.
So, with more cautious approaches from the pair expected given the magnitude of the match, and the fact that Under 2.5 Goals has landed in 54% of the pair's combined Europa League matches this season, siding with few goals in normal time looks a solid play at even money.
Frankfurt v Rangers score prediction and best bets
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals in 90 minutes at Evens (Boylesports)
Score prediction: Frankfurt 1-0 Rangers (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1630 BST (16/05/22)
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