After picking out 23/10, 3/1 & 11/2 winners last weekend, Michael Beardmore is back with best bets for in-form Bolton's trip to Forest Green in Sky Bet League Two.
Football betting tips: Forest Green v Bolton
1pt Bolton to win by one goal at 16/5 (Betfair, RedZone)
1pt Jamille Matt to score anytime at 21/10 (Genting Bet)
It’s a well-worn cliché – and even more so in this coronavirus-condensed season – that things can change dramatically over a short period of time in football.
Saturday’s early kick-off in League Two is a case in point – just two months ago, 15 places separated Forest Green, in second, from a Bolton side languishing in 17th in English football’s fourth tier.
It appeared as if a decade of disasters was going to plummet to a new low for the Trotters – but their renaissance since January has been something to behold.
Ten wins and two draws in 12 fixtures since have rocketed Bolton up to fifth, just two points and two places off Forest Green, and genuine automatic promotion contenders in a top seven you could throw a blanket over.
Bolton are edging rivals out, not blowing them away
Forest Green, for their part, have been one of the division’s dependables, consistently among the challengers, six wins in their past 11 proof of that and Mark Cooper’s side have lost fewer games (eight) than any team in League Two.
But they have also lost to struggling Southend in that run and Bolton’s fabulous form simply cannot be ignored – I have to side with the visitors here.
You can get 29/20 generally on Bolton to win which is value enough on a team on the run they’re on but I’m going to advise BOLTON TO WIN BY EXACTLY ONE GOAL at larger odds of 16/5 with Betfair and RedZone.
This is a game between two of the best sides in the division – it should be tight, perhaps decided by one goal, just as seven of Bolton’s 10 wins in their recent stunning sequence have.
The Trotters are edging teams out rather than blowing them away while 75% - six out of eight - of Forest Green’s League Two defeats this season have also been by a single-goal margin.
Should I back Eoin Doyle or Jamille Matt?
Two of League Two's leading marksmen go head-to-head in the form of Bolton's Eoin Doyle and FGR's Jamille Matt. Doyle is shorter in all of the scoring markets but has only netted once in his past nine away games so it's the Rovers man I'm siding with.
Rovers, somewhat surprisingly for a Cooper team – his sides tend to be easy on the eye, keeping the ball on the deck – have scored the most set-piece goals in League Two this season.
Those goals have come from a number of different players but it is 17-goal top scorer Matt who stands out for me – he’s scored penalties, netted with his right foot, left foot, head, from set-pieces, from open play.
The six-footer is a varied threat and is averaging a goal roughly every other game – he is 11/2 to score first with Genting Bet but the each-way value isn't there so I prefer their 21/10 on MATT TO SCORE ANYTIME.
I fancy this to be a tight one, as most of Bolton’s wins have been recently, and while the Trotters are favoured to come out on top, it’s worth having Rovers’ Matt – with eight goals in his past 11 games – onside too.
Forest Green v Bolton best bets and score prediction
- Bolton to win by one goal at 16/5 (Betfair, RedZone)
- Jamille Matt to score anytime at 21/10 (Genting Bet)
Score prediction: Forest Green 1-2 Bolton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct 1730 GMT (24/03/21)
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