After a fourth successive profitable week, Jake Pearson returns to take an early look at the weekend's Premier League action, determining which sides are worth backing sooner rather than later, in order to beat the market.
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Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Tottenham and Manchester United to DRAW at 11/4 (Betway)
1pt Everton to beat Wolves at 13/5 (Unibet)
Tottenham v Manchester United
Sunday was a poor day for both Tottenham and Manchester United, but the manner of United’s defeat probably overshadowed how disappointing Spurs were a couple of hours prior.
Nuno Espirito Santo insisted after their 1-0 defeat to West Ham that Spurs do not have a creativity issue, despite his side failing to record a single shot in the entirety of the second half; they do have a creativity issue.
Fortunately for Tottenham, Manchester United have even more issues, taking a 5-0 hammering at home to Liverpool on Sunday.
The warning signs have been there for a while at Old Trafford, poor performances not really punished as they have deserved to have been, but they made up for that and then some against their arch rivals at the weekend.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Tottenham 9/5 | Draw 5/2 | Man Utd 11/8
These two now sit sixth and seventh in the league, Spurs just a point ahead of United, and both of these sides are looking a long way off the current front runners in the Premier League.
As expected after a result as damaging as Man United’s at the weekend, the price for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men to win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has drifted severely. Initially around 11/10, United are now 7/5, almost a 6% swing.
Tottenham have shortened from 11/5 to 9/5, a 4.4% swing, which is certainly more to do with United being poor than with Spurs being good, but the one constant has been the draw. 11/4 is the best price currently available for these two to share the points, as big as it has ever been.
By taking the closing line prices and removing the margin we can achieve as close to the true probabilities for a match as possible, and effectively judge what sort of matches tend to shorten from opening line price, and which tend to drift.
The standout theme from this season so far has been the shortening of the draw in games involving the traditional ‘big six’ – averaging an Expected Value of +2.04%.
What is expected value (EV)?
- Expected value, or EV, is the amount a player can expect to win or lose per bet if the same game was played over and over again with the same odds.
- Positive EV (+) represents a long-term result, while negative EV (-) represents a loss.
While the ‘big six’ may no longer be a viable thing in terms of the quality of the teams, and in their ability to challenge for those positions in the table, it still certainly exists in betting, and can be taken advantage of.
Given the turmoil both sides are in at present, 11/4 about the DRAW in this fixture looks on the large side, and it would not be surprising if it shortens as the weekend approaches.
Wolves v Everton
Wolves continued their unbeaten run with a 1-1 draw away at Leeds on Saturday, though Marcelo Bielsa’s side created much the better opportunities and can consider themselves unfortunate not to have taken more from the game.
Everton, on the other hand, suffered an embarrassing 5-2 defeat at home to Watford, twice relinquishing the lead as Joshua King scored a hat-trick against his former club to inflict a second successive defeat on Rafa Benitez’ men.
Wolves have been impressive under Bruno Lage this season, particularly over the last four matches, but it has to be said that the way they are being priced is beginning to border on the ridiculous.
They were odds-on to beat both Brentford and Newcastle at home, and here against an Everton side who, despite a recent blip, have endured a good start to the season, they are best-priced 6/5.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Wolves 23/20 | Draw 11/5 | Everton 5/2
In fact, only Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Leeds – who are playing bottom-of-the-league Norwich – are shorter to win than Wolves this weekend.
Everton are out to 13/5 to win this match, having drifted from 2/1 following a poor final 12 minutes against the Hornets, but with the Toffees' average closing price this season standing at roughly 2/1, the drift does feel like an overreaction.
Contrarian betting is based on the theory that not enough emphasis is placed on coincidence when pricing teams on either good or bad runs of form, and this match is a perfect example of that.
13/5 about EVERTON TO WIN looks to be an overreaction, and one that may not be available for too long once the market firms up.
Odds correct at 1150 (25/10/21)
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