West Ham are tipped for another win in this week's Beat The Market column
West Ham are tipped for another win in this week's Beat The Market column

Football tips: Premier League weekend best bets, including Burnley v West Ham and Leicester v Newcastle


After tipping up a 13th winner of the season, Jake Pearson returns to take an early look at the weekend's Premier League action, determining which sides are worth backing sooner rather than later to beat the market.


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  • Beat the Market tipping record: 26.5 points staked | +37.61 points returned

Football betting tips: Premier League

1pt West Ham to beat Burnley at 21/20 (General)

0.5pts Newcastle to beat Leicester at 5/1 (bet365)

0.5pts Leicester v Newcastle to DRAW at 7/2 (Unibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

"Sooner or later Liverpool will regress!" | Premier League Best Bets

Burnley v West Ham

After every week that passes it is difficult to escape the feeling that perhaps this is the season that Burnley’s eventful stay in the top-flight of English football comes to an end.

With just one win from their opening 14 matches, the Clarets are now three points adrift of safety, and only once before have they picked up fewer points at this stage of a Premier League campaign.

By complete contrast, West Ham currently sit in fourth place in the league, and deservedly so.


Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday

Burnley 11/4 | Draw 13/5 | West Ham 19/20

Members Extra: Football

A 3-2 victory over Chelsea at the weekend was a statement of intent from David Moyes’ men, going toe-to-toe with the then league-leaders, and coming out on top.

The Hammers have a Europa League tie at home to Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday, but with top spot in Group H already sewn up, Moyes has the luxury of rotating his squad.

There should be no excuses on Sunday then, and a price of 21/20 about WEST HAM TO WIN looks worth getting on side early doors.

West Ham are a very consistent team, both on the pitch and in the betting market. They have drifted in just two of their fixtures this season from opening to closing prices, shortening up in the other 13.

Generally speaking, the Hammers’ price tends to tighten up as the week progresses, with their opponents drifting. In fact, backing West Ham’s opponents at the opening price would have seen you lose 20% Expected Value in total – an average of -1.34% EV per match – the most in the division.


What is expected value (EV)?

  • Expected value, or EV, is the amount a player can expect to win or lose per bet if the same game was played over and over again with the same odds.
  • Positive EV (+) represents a long-term result, while negative EV (-) represents a loss.

Once a fortress, Burnley have won just one of their last 15 Premier League matches at Turf Moor. The Clarets have drifted in all but one of their home games this season, and expect them to do so again.

WHAT IS EXPECTED GOALS? USE xG TO INCREASE PROFITS IN FOOTBALL BETTING

Leicester v Newcastle

There is not too much positive to say about Leicester City at present. They have won just one of their last six Premier League matches and are now eight points behind fourth-place West Ham.

Against Aston Villa on Sunday they had a real opportunity to begin the turnaround, particularly after Harvey Barnes gave them the lead, a position they have only been in six times this season, but again their defensive frailties were exposed.

Villa, who prior to that match had failed to create more than 1.0 expected goals for (xGF) in any of Steven Gerrard’s opening matches as manager, carved out seemingly endless opportunities against the Foxes, registering their highest xGF total of the season.

It means Leicester have now conceded more than 2.0 xGF in their last four consecutive matches, leaving them with the second-worst defence in the league in terms of the chances they are allowing.

xGA since Nov 1st

Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday

TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event

Leicester 4/7 | Draw 100/30 | Newcastle 17/4


Newcastle, who gained their first win of the season courtesy of their 1-0 victory over Burnley at the weekend, will surely be looking to target this fragile Leicester backline.

The Magpies have certainly picked up in a creative sense since the dismissal of Steve Bruce, and with just one loss in their last five matches, a revival is far from a pipe dream.

More often than not, the biggest shorteners tend to be the teams facing off against the league’s top teams, and this season is no different. At the top of the list in terms of their opponents shortening are Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool.

Interestingly though, Leicester are the team behind Liverpool, and it could be worth siding with that theme continuing this weekend.

Newcastle or Draw is available at a top price of 29/20, an implied probability of 41%, but by backing NEWCASTLE TO WIN at 5/1, and the DRAW at 7/2, that probability is lowered to 38.9%, meaning a better price, 2.57 as opposed to 2.45.

Also take into account that Newcastle have firmed up in all but two of their away matches this season.

Odds correct at 1200 GMT (06/12/21)

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