Jake Pearson's profitable Beat the Market column returns to preview the Boxing day action, attempting to identify early value in the upcoming Premier League matches.
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Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Aston Villa and Chelsea to DRAW at 3/1 (bet365)
Wolves P-P Watford
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Two sides in contrasting form meet as Aston Villa host Chelsea on Boxing day.
Steven Gerrard’s appointment has certainly had an immediate effect on Villa, both in terms of performances and in terms of results.
The former Liverpool midfielder has taken nine points from a possible 15 since his appointment, with his only defeats coming against Manchester City and Liverpool, and both of those came by a single goal margin.
The Villains have scored nine goals across Gerrard’s six matches in the dugout, but crucially have conceded just five, the same amount Villa conceded in Dean Smith’s last two fixtures in charge.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Aston Villa 9/2 | Draw 11/4 | Chelsea 8/13
Their expected goals against (xGA) figures have seen a dramatic improvement since Gerrard’s appointment also, allowing 1.24 xGA per game as opposed the 1.66 xGA they were allowing under Smith.
Removing the games against Manchester City and Liverpool as well, and that figure drops to just 0.79 xGA per game.
That will give them hope against a Chelsea side who have scored just once in their last two matches and failed to rack up more than 1.0 xGF for the fifth time this season against Wolves last time out – for context, City have gone below 1.0 xGF just once this term, while Liverpool are yet to create fewer than 1.0 xGF in a game.
Chelsea’s issues are well-documented, not just their recent dip in form, but also the fact that their squad has been severely affected by covid.
With a midweek cup tie away to Brentford yet another unwanted hindrance for Thomas Tuchel’s side, taking on the Blues does appeal.
Villa have had their own attacking issues of late however, and are likely to sit in and frustrate Chelsea, something we have seen Everton and Wolves do to good effect recently.
With Chelsea’s thinning squad and a packed fixture list, taking the 3/1 on offer about the DRAW makes appeal in this match.
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