Jake Pearson's profitable Beat the Market column returns to preview the upcoming Premier League action, attempting to identify early value.
Brentford v Newcastle
Brentford’s 2-1 defeat to Arsenal on Saturday means it is now seven Premier League matches without victory for Thomas Frank’s men, with six of those ending in defeat, and for all their impressive early-season exploits, they now sit just six points above the relegation zone, having played two games more than third-bottom Watford.
For Newcastle, it is now five games without defeat, with a run of three successive victories coming to an end in the form of a 1-1 draw away at West Ham on Saturday. That in itself was a good result, though Eddie Howe’s men certainly had the opportunities to claim all three points against a very accomplished Hammers team.
Effectively, here are two clubs with contrasting trajectories.
As the saying goes though, form is temporary, etcetera, etcetera, and often a good run of form is something worth opposing from a betting perspective.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
There is no doubt that Newcastle have been playing at a much higher level over the past few weeks, which goes someway to explaining the Magpies picking up eleven points from the last 15 available, but it is not the sole reason. Coincidence, or luck, however you view it, is also a contributing factor.
Quantifying luck is difficult though, much more difficult than attributing an upturn in form to a team simply getting better, which often skews their price for upcoming matches: enter contrarian betting.
Contrarian betting is based on taking advantage of the hot hand fallacy, whereby punters believe that previous positive results will make future positive results more likely.
Obviously, in football, there is an element of truth in this, as confidence and momentum do have a part to play, but often teams on a “hot” streak are overpriced as too much emphasis is placed on the immediate results.
That this is the shortest price Newcastle have been to win away from home all season, something they have managed just once, suggests perhaps Howe’s side have been overestimated slightly.
Considering also that Brentford were shorter for victory at home to both Everton and Wolves, as well as being given just a 4% lower chance of beating Leicester than they have been of beating Newcastle, and the 6/4 about BRENTFORD TO WIN begins to look a good price.
Brentford’s average closing price of 5.67 means the layers make only three teams in the league worse than the Bees.
Applying a bit of context to Brentford’s recent poor run as well, six of their last nine matches have come against teams currently in the top seven in the division, including two fixtures against Manchester City.
Frank’s men are being underestimated in this fixture and should be backed to get the better of the Magpies.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (21/02/21)
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