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Football tips: Premier League best bets, Aston Villa v Southampton; Newcastle v Brighton
Jake Pearson's profitable Beat the Market column returns to preview the upcoming Premier League action, attempting to identify early value.
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- Beat the Market tipping record: 37.5 points staked | +41.71 points returned
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Aston Villa to beat Southampton at 11/8 (Betfred)
1pt Brighton to beat Newcastle at 9/5 (Spreadex)
Aston Villa v Southampton
Aston Villa put their successive 1-0 defeats to Newcastle and Watford behind them on Saturday as they beat Brighton by two goals to nil, Steven Gerrard’s men deserving to come away from the Amex with all three points after producing a solid performance, creating more chances than their hosts while limiting Graham Potter’s men well.
Perhaps they met a Seagulls team in a bit of a bad place – this was Brighton’s third consecutive defeat by a scoreline of two or more goals – but credit where it is due, Villa had a clear game plan and employed it well against one of the league’s better teams.
On Saturday they take on one of the most in-form teams in the league – only Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Man United have picked up more points than Ralph Hasenhüttl’s men across their last 10 Premier League games – and again at the weekend the Saints produced yet another accomplished performance to comfortably see off Norwich at St Mary’s.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Aston Villa 13/10 | Draw 13/5 | Southampton 19/10
Southampton are unbeaten in their last six in all competitions, but as mentioned on multiple occasions in this column already this season, the hot hand fallacy can skew how a team are priced in the immediate future, with coincidence not weighted heavily enough by the layers.
In contrast to the Saints being favoured by the bookies in recent weeks, Villa have seen their price drift with each passing game. Their average price over their last six matches – only one of which they have won – has been 3.67, as opposed to the 3.58 it had been across the previous 19 matches. The drift is more notable when you consider that run of fixtures included four games against teams currently in the bottom seven of the league.
Villa are a competent team whose aggressive, direct approach could cause Southampton problems. The Villians are not particularly interested in playing football in their own final third, and quickly bypassing the Saints’ midfield box-press could be the key to success for Gerrard’s men.
Ultimately, a price of 11/8 about an ASTON VILLA WIN looks a touch generous and could well shorten prior to kick-off on Saturday.
Newcastle v Brighton
For the third successive weekend, this column is taking on Newcastle, but it is not a vendetta of any kind, simply a feeling of overreaction to their recent results.
It must be said, Eddie Howe has done a good job. He has shored up the Magpies at the back – a seemingly impossible task at the beginning of his tenure – whilst also getting the most out of players who, under Steve Bruce, had flattered to deceive to say the least.
It is now six games without defeat for Howe’s side, winning four of those, and with four points and three teams between themselves and the relegation zone survival is looking far more likely with each passing week.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Newcastle 13/8 | Draw 11/5 | Brighton 17/10
While improvement has been a factor in Newcastle’s upturn in results, so has fortune and momentum – two of their four victories had a fairness rating of less than 70.00 according to Infogol’s expected goals metric. This is not to say Newcastle have been “lucky”, but simply to point out that luck and coincidence do play a part in a good run of form.
Brighton, on the other hand, may consider themselves “unlucky” to have lost their last three matches, the fairness ratings for their defeats to Burnley and Aston Villa at 53.67 and 69.73 respectively.
What is the Infogol fairness rating?
The Infogol Fairness Rating is arrived at by comparing the actual result against the range of possible outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances. This is scaled from 0-100, where 100 represents where the process most closely mirrors the real score line and lower ratings indicate a match where the score line is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.
There is no hiding from the fact that the Seagulls’ problems stem from their lack of clinical edge, though that is a very simplified version of the issue, and while Graham Potter’s men remain in the top half of the table, “issue” is a huge overreaction.
An underperformance of their xGF (expected goals for) of around eight goals is not an unfamiliar sight for the Gulls, but defensively they have been tremendous, boasting the fourth best xGA in the division.
This current rut they are in is symptomatic of the close nature of Brighton matches, their expected goal difference (xGD) of 2.3 demonstrating how in the balance games involving Potter’s men often are, a single moment able to decide the result, which more often than not is a draw.
Their current run of form is less to do with Brighton playing poorly and much more to do with variance playing its part.
Against only Watford and Norwich have Newcastle been a shorter price to win a home match this term, and that in itself is enough to convince that 9/5 about BRIGHTON TO WIN is a good price, one certainly worth getting on side.
Odds correct at 1150 GMT (28/02/21)
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