Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
1pt Shane Duffy to score anytime in Birmingham vs Norwich (12:30) at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Josh Koroma 1+ shots on target in Ipswich v Huddersfield (12:30) at 11/8 (bet365)
1pt Sammie Szmodics to score anytime in Leicester vs Blackburn (12:30) at 5/2 (bet365)
1pt Ryan Allsop to be carded in Plymouth vs Hull (12:30) at 11/2 (bet365)
1pt James Beadle to be carded in Sunderland vs Sheff Wed (12:30) at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Under 1.5 Goals in West Brom vs Preston (12:30) at 11/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Birmingham vs Norwich
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 11/8 | Draw 13/5 | Away 9/5
Birmingham need to win here to stand any chance of survival, while Norwich need a point to secure a play-off spot, while a win will see them clinch fifth and a two-legged tie with Southampton in the play-offs.
The Blues are artificially short due to the 'must-win' nature, but I've been drawn in by a big-priced anytime goalscorer.
SHANE DUFFY TO SCORE ANYTIME looks huge at 16/1, especially as set-pieces have been Birmingham's Achilles heel.
They survival scrappers have conceded the most xG from dead-ball situations this season, while Norwich sit fifth for xG created from set-pieces, scoring the third most goals (18).
Duffy has averaged 0.08 xG per 90 and taken 0.98 shots per 90 this season. He ought to have more goals to his name based on the chances he's had this term, and is fresh off a five shot game last weekend against Swansea. Let's hope he finishes the season with a bang.
Ipswich v Huddersfield
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 2/9 | Draw 11/2 | Away 11/1
Barring a mathematical miracle, Huddersfield are down.
But that doesn’t mean they won’t have some pride to play for at an Ipswich side heading out of the Sky Bet Championship in the opposite direction.
JOSH KOROMA has been one of their better performers in a disappointing season. And the key stat here is that he’s registered 31 shots on target in 38 appearances.
That makes the 11/8 on the midfielder to record OVER 0.5 SHOTS ON TARGET at Portman Road look incredibly appealing on a player who is averaging 2.3 shots per game.
Ipswich are not going up based on their defensive solidity – they’ve allowed 3.73 shots on target per game.
Leicester vs Blackburn
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 3/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 17/4
Leicester secured the Championship title on Monday with an emphatic win over Preston, no doubt the Foxes have been celebrating a successful season in the meantime.
Not least Jamie Vardy, the frontman netted twice on Monday to take him to 18 goals for the season, it is the visiting strikers price to net that interests me here though.
Leicester’s players and staff were singing “Leeds are falling apart” at their end of season awards 🤣🤣😅
— Second Tier podcast (@secondtierpod) May 1, 2024
pic.twitter.com/Lt2Ho8w2dn
SAMMIE SZMODICS is five clear in the race for the second tiers Golden Boot, a feat that was 150/1 ante-post.
His longest barren spell of the season stretched across four games over Christmas but he has not failed to have at least one shot in any of his last 12 games. Despite not netting against Coventry, he had nine attempts.
Although he is linked with a move away from Ewood Park in the summer, Blackburn have not yet confirmed their second tier status.
Rovers can do so with a point this weekend against a side with nothing to play for.
At 5/2, Szmodics’ price TO SCORE ANYTIME looks too big considering the circumstances.
Plymouth vs Hull
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 12/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away evs
The same blueprint applies for Plymouth vs Hull except both of these sides need to win on the final day.
For the Pilgrims, three points guarantees survival and for Hull, it gives them a chance of a top six finish although they also need West Brom to lose.
A keeper card is the way in but which keeper to choose? The logic works both ways but I think the punt is visiting stopper RYAN ALLSOP TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
Besides the fact he has three cards this term, as the away keeper he is the more enticing pick for the simple reason that if the circumstances suit and Allsop running through the dark arts playbook, no doubt the home faithful will let the referee know.
Sunderland vs Sheffield Wednesday
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 9/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 6/4
Sheffield Wednesday are not out of the woods yet but it is in their hands.
Level on points with Blackburn and three clear of Birmingham, they have taken 11 points from the last 15 on offer and another one confirms their survival.
Against nothing-to-play-for-Sunderland things are looking rosy for the Owls, as the 16/1 on them to go down implies.
At one point this season Sheffield Wednesday were rock bottom and 12 points adrift...
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) April 27, 2024
They now only need 1 point to guarantee Championship status! 👏#swfc | @EFL pic.twitter.com/73vLwxIlzS
No doubt the visitors will be pulling out all the stops to secure a result which is why the 13/2 about their stopper JAMES BEADLE TO BE SHOWN A CARD appeals.
Beadle has five cards to his name this term, the majority of which have come for Oxford.
Three were for time-wasting antics, one coming in the 40th minute and whilst it would boost the odds to combine it with a Wednesday result I do not think it is worth the risk.
West Brom vs Preston
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/9 | Draw 10/3 | Away 13/2
Two points above seventh-placed Hull and with a vastly superior goal difference, West Bromwich Albion need only a point at home to Preston North End to finally seal a play-off berth that has been seemingly inevitable for the past few months now.
However, a run of just one win in the Baggies' past seven, including losing the past three on the spin, has set some alarm bells ringing and there will be plenty of tension and nerves around The Hawthorns on Saturday lunchtime as a result.
Carlos Corberan's Albion, who have scored just once in those three defeats, are likely to adopt a safety-first approach as a consequence - falling behind is to be avoided at all costs.
Mid-table Preston arrive with freedom, of course, but that hasn't really helped them in recent weeks, losing four straight without scoring. Indeed, the Lilywhites have fired blanks in seven of their past 11.
UNDER 1.5 GOALS has landed in six of those 11 and given West Brom are unlikely to push the boat out one jot, the 11/4 on a repeat of that looks very inviting.
Odds correct at 1100 BST (03/05/24)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
