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Football tips, predictions and best bets: Saturday 07/10/2023
Our team pick out their best bets for Saturday's action, with the Premier League and Sky Bet EFL in focus.
Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
2pts Over 2.5 goals in Everton v Bournemouth at 5/6 (General)
1.5pts Cardiff to beat Watford at 6/4 (General)
1pt Abdoullah Ba to score or assist in Sunderland vs Middlesbrough at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Joe Rodon to score anytime in Leeds v Bristol City at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jean-Philippe Mateta to score anytime in Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest at 11/4 (bet365)
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 6/5 | Draw 11/5 | Away 12/5
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
I've been a fan of Palace's attack following Roy Hodgson's return to Selhurst, but it's a side struggling with injuries currently.
Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise are both out for this game, with Odsonne Edouard potentially missing too. That's a big blow to their chances.
The positive is that they take on a Forest side who have struggled to gain points on the road since promotion to the Premier League - even if they managed to beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge at the beginning of September.
Under 2.5 goals sitting at 4/7 highlights just how this game is expected to play out. It also shows why it may be a tricky one to get involved with.
However, I was a bit surprised to see a price as big as 11/4 available on JEAN-PHILIPPE MATETA TO SCORE ANYTIME if he is the man playing up front for the hosts.
Mateta netted a hat-trick in the Carabao Cup victory over Sky Bet Championship side Plymouth and had three assists on his tally across five Premier League outings so far - four of those have been from the bench.
He's proven his ability to be a decent goalscorer in the past when given the chance as a starter. This is a game where he could well demonstrate that once again.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-0 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 1615 BST (05/10/23)
Everton v Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 10/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 14/5
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
If Everton could actually convert the chances they created for themselves in home games, they'd be in a much better position.
The Toffees have generated opportunities worth 7.3 xG across their four contests in front of their own supporters yet have only found the net once. That xG figure placing them sixth in the home table of this metric.
I remain convinced in this Bournemouth project despite a slow start. The fixture list has been incredibly difficult for them and they have picked up points against the non-big six sides.
OVER 2.5 GOALS can be backed at 5/6 which looks decent value considering the two teams.
The Cherries' desired style under Andoni Iraola is highlighted by their 11.7 PPDA figure. The lower the number, the more aggressive a team is out of possession. Bournemouth having the seventh-lowest in the league despite a really tough start can be viewed as a positive.
The 13 shot-ending turnovers is the fourth-highest, and Everton being the home side means that there will be some pressure on them to be on the front foot. That should suit the visitors.
Bournemouth are a nice price if you fancy an outsider on Saturday, but given what we've seen from Everton, goals is where the best value can be found.
Score prediction: Everton 1-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1140 BST (06/10
Cardiff vs Watford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 29/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 15/8
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
I proposed this as a selection in the latest episode of This Week's Acca, but it was rejected as the price was suited better as a single.
So, here it is. CARDIFF TO WIN looks solid value at 6/4 given what we've seen from them this season.
Erol Bulut has started life at the club in great fashion, with the Bluebirds sitting 8th in the table heading into the weekend.
The home form has been strong, with wins coming in their last four league outings in front of their own supporters. No side in England's second tier has picked up more points at home so far.
Bulut's spell in Turkey shows how good his teams can be in familiar surroundings. His Gaziantep side gained 46 points in the 21/22 season - 40 of those came at home.
Watford have failed to win any of their four away league games - with three ending in defeat.
Score prediction: Cardiff 2-1 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1800 BST (05/10/23)
Leeds vs Bristol City
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/2 | Draw 10/3 | Away 5/1
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
There's been - not quite negativity - but perhaps an underwhelming sense among some Leeds fans following Wednesday's 1-0 win over QPR.
Yes, maybe a bigger scoreline was expected against a relegation fancy but it was a strong performance in which the visitors never really looked like finding a way through.
It moved them up to sixth in the Sky Bet Championship table and resulted in their fifth clean sheet across their last six games. That is impressive.
A part of that defensive improvement is down to JOE RODON's presence, and after watching him in midweek the 18/1 for a GOAL ANYTIME looks a value play.
Bristol City are a decent team at set-piece situations but Leeds should see their fair share of corners given the likelihood that they are on the front foot throughout and their use of the wingers.
Both Rodon and fellow centre-back Pascal Struijk had two shots each in that game, and the Wales defender came within inches of scoring in the first-half.
That's down to him taking up a position towards the back post for deeper corners alongside right-back Luke Ayling. Ayling looks to play the ball back across the box; Rodon is in the better positions to direct a header towards goal.
He carries a visible threat and a strong ability with the ball at his feet. While the likely route to success will be through set-pieces, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him score from open play either.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-0 Bristol City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct 1330 BST (05/10/23)
Sunderland vs Middlesbrough
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 13/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 19/10
Liam Kelly (@LiamKellyTTA)
Middlesbrough's defence has performed poorly this season, and although they recorded a clean sheet in the midweek 2-0 win over Cardiff, their left side still looks extremely vulnerable.
Lukas Engel has had some success going forward recently, but he's likely to struggle against ABDOULLAH BA at the Stadium of Light, looking fairly static from a defensive perspective thus far.
Ba looks value at 11/8 with Sky Bet TO SCORE OR ASSIST a goal for a Sunderland side that are in excellent form in the Championship, winning 2-0 against Watford on Wednesday night to move to fourth place in the table.
Ba scored in that game and has a favourable match-up if starting on Sunderland's left-wing again.
Score prediction: Sunderland 2-2 Middlesbrough (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 2000 BST (05/10/23)
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