Football betting tips: Sunday best bets
2pts Real Madrid to beat Atletico Madrid at 3/4 (General)
1.5pts Christopher Nkunku to score anytime in Chelsea vs Wolves at 6/4 (General)
1pt Tomas Soucek 1+ headed shot on target at 7/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Abdoullah Ba to score anytime in Middlesbrough vs Sunderland at 11/2 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt Abdoullah Ba for 1+ assist in Middlesbrough vs Sunderland at 5/1 (bet365)
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 3/4 | Draw 3/1 | Away 16/5
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
Real Madrid lead La Liga and are red-hot, unbeaten in 25 games (in 90 minutes) across all competitions. The last - and only - team to bloody the nose of Los Blancos this season? Their bitter rivals Atletico Madrid way back in September, winning the reverse of this weekend's clash 3-1.
The pair have met twice more recently too. First in the Spanish Super Cup in Riyadh the pair drew 3-3 in normal time before Real won 5-3 after extra time, and then in the Copa del Rey at the Metropolitano Stadium, with that game ending 2-2 after normal time and Diego Simeone's side winning 4-2 after extra time.
So, across three meetings between the pair this season, Atleti are unbeaten in normal time, with those games seeing 14 goals within 90 minutes. Will that high-scoring nature continue here? Perhaps, but I can't look past the price available for REAL MADRID TO WIN here at 3/4.
Carlo Ancelotti's men have been sensational this season, especially at the Bernabeu. They have played 15 games across all competitions, winning 13 and drawing two. In the league they have won nine of 10, averaging a whopping 2.66 xGF and 0.83 xGA per game.
That underlying process is outstanding, and while it has to be noted that they haven't yet hosted any team currently in the top five - playing away against all of them already which has to be seen as a long-term positive - that caveat can be counteracted by Atleti's poor form and performances on their travels.
Simeone's men have won four and lost five of their away league games, but more worrying is their xG data, averaging 1.48 xGF and 1.52 xGA per game on the road. That is not good, and explains their poor results.
They have been beaten at Athletic Bilbao (5th), Barcelona (4th) and Girona (2nd) already, so a trip to the best team in Spain will likely lead to another loss.
Their record at the Bernabau has been bad of late too, losing three of their last four trips across the City, drawing the other.
Middlesbrough vs Sunderland
- Kick-off time: 12:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 21/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 5/2
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
ABDOULLAH BA has had a hand in seven league goals this term, impressive as he’s only started 14 games.
The majority of those have come since Michael Beale took charge. In fact Ba scored and set up another two in Sunderland's last match vs Stoke.
At tasty prices TO SCORE as well as ASSIST, I think it is worth splitting a couple of points across both markets. It may return slightly more to back Ba to score or assist but this way if he does do both, like he did against Stoke, it is a bigger return.
BuildABet @ 40/1
- Sunderland to win
- Abdoullah Ba to score anytime
- Abdoullah Ba 1+ assist
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
It will be interesting to see how Middlesbrough respond to the loss of Morgan Rogers who departed for Aston Villa on deadline day.
Michael Carrick’s side's form has been fleeting, losing more games (6) than they have won (5) across their last 12 in the Championship. Losing one of their chief creators can only have a negative impact, so backing Ba to star in a Sunderland win appeals.
Odds correct 1400 GMT (02/02/24)
Chelsea vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 8/15 | Draw 10/3 | Away 19/4
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
Can I back Chelsea at 8/15? Absolutely not. They remain an enigma, looking assured and confident, picking up momentum during a run of five wins in seven, but they were utterly dismantled at Anfield.
Now, granted, Wolves aren't at the level of Liverpool and this isn't an away game, but I still can't trust Chelsea in any win-type markets.
What I can trust is Wolves' approach to the match, which will see them play on the front foot and aim to score a couple at Stamford Bridge. That should provide the hosts with opportunities to create chances at the very least.
Gary O'Neil's side conceded 3.34 xG and four goals against Manchester United in midweek, and if United can make your defence look that bad, Chelsea can too.
I was surprised to see 6/4 available for CHRISTOPHER NKUNKU TO SCORE ANYTIME here.
He was back in action after another injury lay-off that saw him miss five games, coming off the bench against Liverpool to score once and provide plenty of headaches for the Reds' backline.
His season hasn't yet got going due to health, playing in just four Premier League games, starting just once.
In total he's played just 167 top flight minutes this term, yet has netted two goals and averaged 0.50 xG per 90, despite entering the fray off the bench in three of his outings.
Both of those stats are hugely positive, and it's very clear he is the clinical missing piece of the Chelsea jigsaw. Hopefully he is fit enough to start, but even if he isn't, he's shown how effective he can be off the bench, and against this Wolves backline he should get a couple of chances regardless.
Manchester United vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 4/7 | Draw 16/5 | Away 17/4
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
Two of the three shots TOMAS SOUCEK had in West Ham’s 1-1 draw with Bournemouth on Thursday came via his head.
This term, 16 of the Cech's 28 shots have come with his head as this bet has clicked in a quarter of his 20 Premier League starts.
Although he failed to hit the target with either in his most recent appearance, the 7/2 for him to have 1+ HEADED SHOTS ON TARGET appeals against Manchester United on Sunday.
The acquisition of Kalvin Phillips pushed Soucek further up the pitch against the Cherries which explains why he had as many shots in that game (3) as he had in the previous eight in the league.
It is also worth noting only Sheffield United (101) have conceded more shots from set pieces then Man Utd (99) this season.
The xGA of 8.87 the Red Devils have shipped from dead ball situations is only marginally trumped by Burnley as well so Soucek should be a threat at Old Trafford.
Odds correct 1440 GMT (02/02/24)
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