Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
1.5pts Newcastle to win to nil vs Palace at 11/8 (General)
1.5pts Coventry 'Draw no Bet' vs Bristol C at 11/10 (General)
1pt Sunderland to beat Stoke at 2/1 (BetMGM)
1pt Sending off in Forest vs Luton at 9/2 (bet365)
1pt Michal Helik to score anytime in Huddersfield vs QPR at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Scott Twine to score from outside box in Hull vs Sot'on at 9/1 (bet365)
*Further tips may appear on Friday
Newcastle vs C Palace
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/9 | Draw 7/2 | Away 6/1
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
Newcastle’s early season struggles were massively overblown. They lost to Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton consecutively, an extremely tough three game stretch, but they have bounced back emphatically.
Five wins from seven games, including home wins over Brentford, Manchester City (Carabao), Burnley and PSG, has seen them spring to life.
Three of those home wins came TO NIL, and that is the selection again here, with NEWCASTLE an exceptional home side, especially defensively.
Since the start of last season, the Magpies have scored 45 and conceded 17 in 23 league games at St. James’ Park, with their xG averages over that time equally impressive (2.48 xGF, 0.92 xGA per game).
They host a Crystal Palace side who have struggled to create and score this season, netting just seven times in eight games, and scoring in this match may be even tougher.
That’s because, not only are they facing an excellent home team, but they must do so without their two best creators, Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise are both missing for this trip.
N Forest vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 8/13 | Draw 11/4 | Away 9/2
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
This one is a bit of a rogue bet from me, but the reasoning appears sound.
These two teams are very rough and physical in their approaches, which is why their matches have seen plenty of cards and, importantly, RED CARDS, and so backing another SENDING OFF IN THE MATCH appeals.
For whatever reason, red cards have been prevalent when these sides have faced off in recent years. There has been a sending off in three of the last four head-to-heads.
More recently, there has been a red card in four of Nottingham Forest's last five league games this season, and in two of Luton's last four in the Premier League.
Adding fuel to the fire, the refereeing appointment for this game is Sam Barrott, who is overseeing just his second ever top flight game.
He started the season taking charge of Championship matches before earning a promotion, and in those six games he's brandished two red cards, highlighting he's not scared to give someone their marching orders.
Bristol City vs Coventry
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 23/10 | Away 2/1
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
I get the feeling that Coventry are clicking into gear. The Sky Blues were slow out of the traps last season with off-field issues contributing, this season they have been steady in that regard but have had to adapt having lost their two best players in the summer.
However, the signs are there that they are finding a rhythm and beginning to gel as a team, meaning they look ready for another play-off push.
Though they sit 15th in the league table, Coventry rank as the fifth best team according to underlying data, averaging 1.43 xGF and 0.97 xGA per game, while also ranking as the sixth best travelling side.
Backing COVENTRY DRAW NO BET makes plenty of appeal at an odds against price when visiting Bristol City on Saturday.
Taking draw no bet makes sense here given the Sky Blues have drawn the most games in the league this season (6), sometimes struggling for the finishing touch in matches.
Bristol City are a middling team who have struggled on the chance creation front this term, especially at home, generating just 1.09 xGF per game, while across their last four league games they have mustered just 2, 7, 5 and 3 total shots.
Huddersfield vs QPR
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 19/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 29/10
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
Huddersfield vs QPR, not the most appetising clash but there is a punt that appeals in West Yorkshire.
MICHAL HELIK is a whopping 12/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME, a bet as short as half the price with some firms.
To understand why this price is large, it is worth going back six managerial appointments ago when Carlos Corberan ruled the roost and he almost guided the Terriers back to the Premier League.
The season Huddersfield lost the play-off final they topped the charts for set piece goals, scoring 20 times from dead ball situations which was 31% of their overall total.
Helik was at Barnsley at the time but Huddersfield have not lost their set piece presence since Corberan’s departure. The arrival of the centre back, and then Neil Warnock only enhanced their dead ball dominance.
In the 28 league games under Warnock and now Darren Moore, over a quarter of the goals Huddersfield have scored (26.6%) have come courtesy of Helik or Matty Pearson.
Pearson grabbed the majority last season but Helik has taken on the mantra this campaign bagging three, two of which have come under the new manager Moore.
The Polish defender has notched up an xG of 2.82 and missed two ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.30) so may feel aggrieved not to have found the net more times this campaign.
He will certainly fancy his chances on Saturday against QPR, one of the worst sides in the division at defending set pieces (4.30 xGA).
Hull vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 9/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 11/8
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
SCOTT TWINE loves an effort from downtown.
This season, 14 of the 25 shots he has had have come from OUTSIDE THE BOX, at 9/1 he is worth a punt to SCORE from deep this weekend.
Although he is yet to score this season, the offensive midfielder is notching up an xG of 0.25 per game.
Twine has a knack of scoring from range, of the 37 goals he has scored in the football league, 54% have come from outside the area.
I was also surprised to see that Southampton conceded a fair few from range, 29% of the 28 goals they have shipped have come from outside the box in the league this campaign.
Stoke vs Sunderland
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 7/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 9/5
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
Stoke have been woeful this season, losing seven of 11 with that record seeing them sit fourth bottom of the Sky Bet Championship.
Their three wins have come against a bad Rotherham team, a Watford side who sit 20th currently and a Bristol City team who are up-and-down. Sunderland are a completely different level of opposition to those teams.
Yes, they got beat 4-0 by Middlesbrough in their last game before the international break, but the game was 0-0 at half-time with Sunderland reduced to 10-men just before the whistle. It was only in the second-half that they got exposed.
Tony Mowbray's side sit fourth in the table despite that heavy loss, and rank seventh on the xG table through the early throws of the season.
Away from home the Black Cats have been excellent, winning three and drawing one of their five, with only current league leaders Leicester bettering their underlying numbers when travelling this term, Sunderland averaging 1.67 xGF and 1.20 xGA per away game.
They have hit three goals in all of their last three away games, and given Stoke's attacking struggles of late - generated fewer than 1.0 xGF in three of last four - SUNDERLAND TO WIN makes great appeal.
I think Sunderland are a better team than last season, when they gate-crashed the top six, and was very surprised to see them this big for this game.
Odds correct at 1700 (19/10/23)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
