Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
1.5pts Sheff Wed to beat Rotherham at 5/4 (Betfred)
1.5pts Newport double chance vs Mansfield at evens (Sky Bet)
1pt Wolves to score 2+ goals vs Newcastle at 13/8 (Betfair, William Hill)
1pt No first goalscorer in Lincoln vs Stevenage at 7/1 (Betfred)
0.5pts Emmanuel Adegboyega to score anytime in Walsall vs Doncaster at 9/1 (bet365)
Newcastle vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 12/5
Wolves come into this game above Newcastle in the Premier League table. Who saw that coming at the start of the season?
The Old Gold are one of the form teams at the moment. Across the last nine league games, they have won six and lost just two - one of those a last-gasp defeat to Manchester United.
Goals have flowed too, scoring 19 in those nine matches, and the net should continue to bulge for them with Pedro Neto back fit again and Hwang Hee-chan back from the Asia Cup.
Newcastle are all over the place defensively at the minute, a far cry from the solid backline we saw last season. Last term they conceded just 33 goals in 38 games, allowing just 1.10 xGA per game. This campaign they have conceded 45 goals in 26 games and have allowed 1.78 xGA per game. The drop off is alarming.
Eddie Howe's side have conceded 23 goals in their last eight league games, conceding 2+ GOALS in seven of those, and WOLVES can make that eight in nine here.
Newcastle have conceded multiple goals at St James' Park in all of their last four matches, with Nottingham Forest, Luton and Bournemouth all finding the net twice.
Wolves have scored 2+ goals in six of their last nine league games, including three of their last four away which saw them net twice at Spurs and four times at both Chelsea and Brentford.
Odds correct at 1000 GMT (01/03/24)
Rotherham vs Sheff Wed
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 5/2 | Draw 9/4 | Away 23/20
This is a hugely important game in the Sky Bet Championship, and it happens to be local derby. Bottom side Rotherham take on second bottom Sheffield Wednesday, but it's only the latter who have a realistic chance of survival.
The Millers have won just three times all season, collected just 19 points and sit 16 from safety, while the Owls are just three from safety.
Both teams have seen managerial changes during the season, and their respective styles appear polar opposite. Rotherham like to play out from the back under Leam Richardson in a deliberate manner, whereas Wednesday are more chaotic and intense, playing direct and high-pressing under Danny Röhl.
Results would suggest that Richardson hasn't got the players at his disposal to put his style into effect properly, with the Millers continuing to be the makers of their own downfall, being caught out at the back regularly by teams with a good pressing plan.
That means SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY TO WIN looks a bet here, with the Owls in the ascendancy and well on board with Röhl's demands, meaning they could pick the Millers off on Saturday.
Wednesday have won three of their last four, losing only to Leicester since exiting the FA Cup, with the victories coming against struggling Birmingham and Millwall before a good win over an in-form Bristol City side last time out.
After their abysmal start to the season - winless through their opening 13 - the fact the Owls are in with a chance of survival is testament to the manager at the helm, and they have climbed from bottom up to 15th in the xG table, some recovery.
Rotherham have lost 16 of their last 20 matches, sit bottom of the league in every major metric, and while they do keep it close in games, they ultimately don't have the quality to get enough points at this level.
Odds correct at 0945 GMT (01/03/24)
Lincoln vs Stevenage
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 19/10 | Draw 2/1 | Away 29/20
Only one goal has separated Stevenage and their opponents in each of their last three games.
What has become very apparent over that period is Steve Evans' side are very good at limiting their opposition.
In the victories over Cambridge and Wycombe, the Boro limited their opponents to one shot on target a piece. Prior to that, Derby scored with one of only two shots on target.
Stevenage head to Lincoln on Saturday, another team that live in the realm of fine margins.
Lincoln have a goal difference of +8 and 23 of their 35 games this term have seen two or fewer goals so siding with a lack of goals appeals on Saturday.
Granted, the Imps have scored five goals in their last two without conceding but 11 of their league games have seen a goal or fewer this term.
Only one goal separated these sides in the reverse but I am going to be a little bolder and tout NO FIRST GOALSCORER in the hope two of the best defensive outfits in Sky Bet League One cancel one another out.
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (28/02/24)
Newport vs Mansfield
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 3/1 | Draw 13/5 | Away 4/5
NEWPORT boast an impressive record at Rodney Parade against sides currently above them.
They have played seven, lost none and won three and most of those victories were fully warranted.
So, siding with the hosts in the DOUBLE CHANCE market certainly appeals on Saturday.
The major caveat to this pick is the opposition, as Mansfield top the fourth tier.
The Stags have only lost four times all season but they appear to be hitting a bit of a wobble.
Nigel Clough’s side are the inaugural tout for the League Two title and their start to the campaign had all the hallmarks of a title winning campaign after going 17 games unbeaten, but I do wonder if the pressure is catching up to Clough.
Before the turn of the year, Mansfield were averaging two points a game and since then they have averaged 1.70 with three defeats in 10 games.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (29/02/24)
Walsall vs Doncaster
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 11/1 | Draw 12/5 | Away 5/2
EMMANUEL ADEGBOYEGA has made some starts to his loan spell with Walsall.
The Norwich loanee has netted three goals in four appearances, a feat made even more impressive considering he is a central defender.
Four ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.30) have fallen the way of the centre back who has notched up an xG of 2.23 from five shots.
Walsall are the second best side from set pieces in Sky Bet League Two with an xG of 15.23. Next up for them is Doncaster, a side who have conceded 14 goals from dead ball situations this term.
Backing Adegboyega TO SCORE ANYTIME again is worth a punt all things considered.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (28/02/24)
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