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Football tips, predictions and best bets: Premier League and EFL Championship for Sunday 01/10/23
Football betting tips: Sunday best bets
2.5pts Leicester to beat Blackburn at 11/10 (Coral)
1pt Willy Boly over 0.5 shots on target in Forest v Brentford at 7/1 (bet365)
Nottingham Forest v Brentford
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 7/4 | Draw 9/4 | Away 8/5
Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore)
Very unusually, there's only one Premier League game on Sunday as early-season mid-table bedfellows Nottingham Forest and Brentford meet at the City Ground.
The Bees, somewhat surprisingly, have won just one of their opening six matches, a 3-0 triumph at Fulham, but have drawn three, although they come into this game on the back of three straight defeats, two in the league to Newcastle and Everton and a Carabao Cup exit to Arsenal.
Forest are a point better off than their visitors and have arguably had a far, far tougher schedule with trips to Arsenal, both Manchester clubs and Chelsea thus far - they won at Stamford Bridge and pushed the Gunners and Red Devils all the way while also putting up a decent effort at the Etihad.
The hosts appeal at as big as 9/5 in places, a generous price considering it was their home form that kept Steve Cooper's side up last year - but you underestimate Brentford at your peril and I just don't see Thomas Frank's side slipping to a fourth consecutive loss with the talent they have in their ranks.
Fortunately, we can find value in the player markets, specifically Forest defender WILLY BOLY TO HAVE OVER 0.5 SHOTS ON TARGET at a whopping 7/1 with bet365.
Boly averages a shot every other game across his career but that rate has shot up to 1.2 per match this season and the important thing is the majority of his efforts - five of his six shots thus far, across five appearances - have troubled the opposition goalkeeper.
As a centre-half, it's a ratio that won't continue long term but while the Ivorian is in the mood, this price has to be backed.
BuildABet @ 50/1
- Willy Boly 1+ shots on target
- Mathias Jensen 1+ shots on target
- Bryan Mbeumo to be shown a card
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Brentford midfielder Mathias Jensen has already scored twice this season, registering four on-target efforts in eight league and cup matches.
His team-mate Bryan Mbeumo leads the Bees' scoring charts with four goals but is lucky to not have more than one booking to his name.
The Cameroon attacker also tops the Brentford foul count with 1.5 per game and is the kind of forward who tracks back a lot and puts his foot in, attempting 1.3 tackles per match. Match referee Paul Tierney averages four a cards a game this season and last.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1100 BST (29/09/23)
Blackburn v Leicester
- Kick-off time: 12:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 23/10 | Draw 14/5 | Away 21/20
Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)
Blackburn could be in danger of sleepwalking into a relegation battle this season, with the general malaise around the club going largely under the radar.
Jon Dahl Tomasson very nearly walked out of Ewood on the eve of the season following a mandate from the Indian government that Rovers’ owners Venkys halt their investment in the club, which resulted in limited summer strengthening.
Even before then, things weren’t looking great. From being near enough guaranteed a top-six finish last season, a run of two wins from their final 13 Sky Bet Championship games cost them dear.
Three wins in the Carabao Cup disguise a poor start to this campaign, and the home form which was the bedrock of their ultimately failed promotion push has deserted them, from W12 D1 L4 in their opening 17 under Tomasson to W2 D3 L4 in their last nine.
Less explanation is required for a LEICESTER team who sit top after eight games having won seven already, including every away game, during a flying start under Enzo Maresca.
There is little reason to believe that won’t continue according to the data, as the Foxes’ expected goal difference per game (xGD) of 0.89 puts them streets ahead of the next best performing team in Ipswich, who are also their nearest challengers in the actual table.
Odds-against quotes for a LEICESTER WIN should be taken accordingly.
BuildABet @ 12/1
- Leicester (-1) goal handicap
- Over 3.5 goals
- Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to score anytime
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Leaders LEICESTER will be confident of a comfortable victory at a Blackburn team who have dropped off since the latter part of last season.
Rovers have been fun to watch this season, though, with a staggering 46 goals scored in their 11 matches in all competitions - an average of 4.18 per game.
For the Foxes, KIERNAN DEWSBURY-HALL has turned himself into a key man by scoring two and assisting three goals in the league already this term.
Odds correct 1230 BST (29/09/23)
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