Football tips, predictions and best bets: La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1 03/03/24
Football betting tips: Sunday best bets
1pt Napoli to beat Juventus at 7/5 (Betfair, William Hill)
1pt Under 2.5 goals in Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona at 23/20 (Betfair, BetVictor)
1pt Alexandre Lacazette to score anytime in Lyon vs Lens at 7/4 (bet365)
Lyon vs Lens
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 2
- Home 6/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/4
Lyon have been bottom of Ligue 1 for most of the season, but a recent resurgence under manager Pierre Sage has seen them climb to 10th and just eight points off sixth-place Lens, who they host on Sunday.
Sixth place in Ligue 1 secures European qualification, which is a huge deal for a club of Lyon's stature.
They have won seven of their last nine league games so look an appealing price to win this game at 8/5, but I like the look of their captain and leading marksman, ALEXANDRE LACAZETTE, TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The former Arsenal striker has been Lyon's shining light in a miserable campaign thus far, netting 12 times in 20 appearances.
But 75% of his total has come since the managerial change, with Lacazette scoring nine times in 11 games under new coach Sage, averaging 0.63 xG per 90 (Expected Goals per 90 minutes).
Lens have allowed 1.58 xGA (Expected Goals Against) per away game this season, being fortunate to have conceded only 12 times in 12 road dates, so hosts Lyon should get opportunities, most of which will likely fall the way of Lacazette.
Napoli vs Juventus
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 11/8 | Draw 21/10 | Away 11/5
Napoli look to be back. It's been a shocking season for the reigning Serie A champions, but after their latest managerial switch which saw Walter Mazzarri sacked and replaced with current Slovakia manager Francesco Calzona, things are looking up.
A 1-1 draw with Barcelona in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 clash was a good performance, and that was followed up by a 1-1 draw at Cagliari after the hosts scored in the 96th minute.
But in midweek they exploded back into top gear, winning 6-1 at Sassuolo with Victor Osimhen scoring a hat-trick.
They are only eight points off fourth place with 12 games to go, and I think they could make a big push to salvage their season, especially with a fully-fit squad.
The visit of second-placed Juventus is a great opportunity for Napoli to make a statement, and this looks a great time for them to face the Old Lady, so backing NAPOLI TO WIN appeals at a decent price.
Juve have won just one of their last five league games, scraping past 16th-placed Frosinone 3-2, but are set to be missing key players for this visit to Naples.
Federico Chiesa and Adrien Rabiot are two starters both likely to miss this game, as is Weston McKennie who, despite being poor in England with Leeds United, has been excellent for Juventus.
Away results have been good for Massimiliano Allegri's side, and while Napoli's home record has been bad this season (W5 D3 L4), their underlying process has been good, suggesting performances have warranted better results (2.06 xGF, 1.14 xGA per game).
We are taking a leap of faith somewhat given Napoli's results this season, but with Calzona - assistant to Maurizio Sarri when they played some of the most exciting football in Europe - at the helm, we can expect them to play much closer to last season's style than this, which, given the same players remain, could see a drastic upturn in results.
Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Viaplay Sports 1
- Home 9/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 11/8
La Liga looks increasingly as though it'll be won by Real Madrid, who boast a six-point advantage over shock contender package Girona and an eight-point lead over Barcelona with just 12 games remaining.
Los Blancos should get over the line, but Barca's recent good form (four wins from an unbeaten five) means they could be ready to pounce should Carlo Ancelotti's side slip up. The issue for Xavi's side, however, is their schedule.
Barca face this tricky tie in the Basque country against a Bilbao team unbeaten in 12 home league games, before another tough away date against Atletico Madrid that follows a huge Champions League second-leg clash with Napoli.
Bilbao themselves are bang in the race for the top four, three points behind fourth-placed Atletico who they thumped in midweek to reach the Copa del Rey final. This game in isolation could be a tight-knit affair, and so the odds-against price about UNDER 2.5 GOALS immediately jumps off the page.
Digging deeper, the case for few goals only gets better. Bilbao at San Mames have conceded just 14 goals and 11.9 xGA in 13 games, and while they have scored 34 at their home base, they are missing a key attacking player for this - Nico Williams - through suspension.
Add to that the fact Barcelona boast an unbeaten away record (W7 D5) and excellent defensive numbers (15 goals conceded in 12 games, 12.11 xGA) when travelling, plus the importance of the game for both sides, and goals could be at a premium.
We are going against the grain with this one, but I'm hoping defences will be on top here, just as they were in Bilbao's other meetings against the best teams - 2-0 against both Real and Atletico Madrid.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (01/03/24)
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